BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism
Editorial Board Member
As a macroeconomist, I investigate both long-term economic growth and short-term business cycles. My current research explores why IQ and other cognitive skills appear to matter more for nations than for individuals.
For example: A two standard deviation rise in an individual personís IQ predicts only about a 30% increase in her wage. But the same rise in a countryís average IQ score predicts a 700% increase in the average wage in that country. I want to understand why IQ appears to have such a large social multiplier.
The story is much the same for math and science scores: A personís individual score predicts little about how sheíll do in the job market, but the richest and fastest-growing countries in the world tend to do much better on math and science tests. If the IQ multiplier is even half as large as it appears to be, then health, nutrition, and immigration policies in developing countries should be targeted at raising the average intelligence of the worldís poorest nations.
An even more important implication of my research is that low-skilled immigrants should be allowed to work in the worldís richest countries: Low-skilled immigrants have little or no net effect on the wages of the citizens of rich countries, but their lives massively improve when they are allowed to work in these countries.
Iím currently at work on a book on these themes, with an expected publication date in 2014: The working title is Hive Mind: How your nationís IQ matters so much more than your own.
In the past, Iíve
worked on Capitol Hill and Iíve studied the monetary transmission
mechanism. I speak on policy topics regularly in the media and in
Selected Academic Papers
IQ and National Productivity
Abstract: A recent line of research in economics and psychology hypothesizes that differences in national average intelligence, proxied by IQ tests, are important drivers of national economic outcomes. Cross-country regressions, while showing a robust IQ-growth relationship, cannot fully test this hypothesis. Thus, recent work explores the micro-foundations of the IQ-productivity relationship. The well-identified psychological relationship between IQ and patience implies higher savings rates and higher folk theorem-driven institutional quality in high average IQ countries. Experiments indicate that intelligence predicts greater pro-social behavior in public goods and prisonerís dilemma games, supporting the hypothesis that high national average IQ causes higher institutional quality. High average IQ countries also have higher savings intensity by a variety of measures. Other possible IQ-productivity channels are discussed, as are possible environmental causes of differences in national average IQ.
The O-Ring Sector and the Foolproof Sector: An Explanation for Skill Externalities
(Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2013, lead article)
IQ and Entrepreneurship: International Evidence
(with R.W. Hafer, April 2012)
Abstract: National measures of cognitive skill, including IQ tests, have received attention recently as a possible driver of cross-country productivity differences.† In a parallel literature, national measures of entrepreneurial activity and pro-entrepreneurship policies have received similar attention.† This paper is the first to demonstrate that higher national average IQ reliably predicts higher ratings for the Acs-Szerb Global Entrepreneurship Development Index (GEDI). Results hold after controlling for GDP, education levels, inequality, broad economic freedom indices, and other factors.† Microfounded explanations for these results are considered.
Will the Intelligent Inherit the Earth? IQ and Time Preference in the Global Economy
Abstract: Social science research has shown that intelligence is positively correlated with patience and frugality, while growth theory predicts that more patient countries will save more. This implies that if nations differ in national average IQ, countries with higher average cognitive skills will tend to hold a greater share of the worldís tradable assets. I provide empirical evidence that in todayís world, countries whose residents currently have the highest average IQs have higher savings rates, higher ratios of net foreign assets to GDP, and higher ratios of U.S. Treasuries to GDP. These nations tend to be in East Asia and its offshoots. The relationship between national average IQ and net foreign assets has strengthened since the end of Bretton Woods.
U.S. Troops and Foreign Economic Growth
(with Tim Kane, Defence and Peace Economics, 2012)
PDF††††††††††††††† Excel with Readme†††††††††††††† Original Kane Dataset on Troop Deployments, 1950-2003
The Bond Market Wins
(Econ Journal Watch, 2012)
Human Capital in the Creation of Social Capital: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Tickets
(with John Nye, 2011)
National IQ and National Productivity: The Hive Mind across Asia
(Asian Development Review, 2011)
Patience, Cognitive Skill, and Coordination in the Repeated Stag Hunt
(with al-Ubaydli and Weel, December 2010)
Speed Bankruptcy: A Firewall to Future Crises
(Published in Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Summer 2010)
Cognitive Ability and Technology Diffusion: An empirical test
(Economic Systems, 2012)
IQ in the Production Function: Evidence from immigrant earnings
(Economic Inquiry, 2010)
Are Smarter Groups More Cooperative? Evidence from repeated prisonersí dilemma experiments, 1959-2003
(Published in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2008)
Dynamic IS Curves With and Without Money: An international comparison
(Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, 2008)
On Money and Output: Is money redundant?
(Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007)
Intelligence, Education, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach
(Published in Journal of Economic Growth, March 2006)
Additional materials available on Blackboard
Syllabus for Spring 2013 Principles of Macroeconomics
Syllabus for Spring 2013 M.A. Macroeconomics
Syllabus for Fall 2012 Ph.D. Mathematics for Economists
Syllabus for Spring 2012 Principles of Macroeconomics
Syllabus for Spring 2012 M.A. Macroeconomics
Syllabus for Graduate Public Choice
Syllabus Fall 2011 M.A. Mathematical Economics
Syllabus for Graduate Monetary Economics
Syllabus for Ph.D. Macroeconomics I
Syllabus for M.A. Mathematical Economics
Syllabus for M.A. Macroeconomics
Syllabus for M.A. Economic Growth
Syllabus for M.A. Time Series Econometrics
Syllabus for Undergraduate Public Choice
Syllabus for Undergraduate Economic Methodology
Syllabus for Principles of Macroeconomics
Syllabus for Principles of Macroeconomics
Syllabus Spring 2010 M.A. Macroeconomics
Additional Writings and Presentations
Taxes Rational Workers Want: An Illustration of the Chamley-Judd Theorem
(A 2-page discussion of the Redistribution Impossibility Theorem, with links to two simple Excel simulations, March 2013)
Abstract: As a rule, rational workers prefer to tax workers, not capitalists.
(Mercatus Center Working Papers, with Daniel Rothschild, 2011)
A Political Coase Theorem for the Intelligent
(Slide presentation at Konstanz University, 2011, and Public Choice World Congress, 2012)
Becoming Open and Able: Keys to Modern Productivity
(Slide presentation at University of the Philippines, July 2010)
The Economics of Financial Crises
The Great Recession
Economics of the Geithner Plans
presentation for the
presentation for the
Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth: A few finger-exercises
(January 2009: A response to a discussion between Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky at Overcoming Bias)
Imitate FDRís Treasury Secretary: Bankruptcy not Bailouts
(November 2008: Published in U.S. Exchequer, pages 45-46)
My media clippings, catalogued by Mercatus.
My Twitter feed, GarettJones: All the economics I can fit into 140 characters.
A 2009 photo of my
brother Jerry and I backpacking in the Vogelsang section of
A macroeconomic revolution all in one photograph.
A photo of me in my office in Carow Hall.
A TV series you really ought to watch.
And another: The first sitcom inspired by public choice theory.
Another kind of spontaneous order.