Oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge

How much oil is in ANWR? In May 2000, the Energy Information Administration released it's most recent publication, Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment, May 2000 (p. vii), which concluded,

"This is the largest unexplored, potentially productive onshore basin in the United States.....There is a 95 percent probability (a 19 in 20 chance) that at least 5.7 billion barrels of oil are recoverable."
Security arguments basically break down into a question of U.S. dependence on oil imports. While interdependence best characterizes the whole of global political relations, with no state able to exert total independence in any economic, environmental or security matter, the question of oil dependence historically ranks high on the U.S. national security agenda. In the past three decades, for example, the United States population has experienced both an oil initiated global financial crises and war in the Persian Gulf.

Environmental concerns attached to ANWR oil production mirror concerns expressed about oil production in the United States throughout the past three decades. Along with site specific concerns linked to production accidents and ecosystem stability, the issue of an oil based fossil fueled economy also raises questions in the international environmental realm. The current stumbling block to implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, for example, deals with oil issues insofar as oil based energy activities contribute to the greenhouse gas emissions states are attempting to reduce. Increased oil exploration and production activities at ANWR also pose potential problems for the entire Arctic region ecosystem.

What may happen if there is no new domestic oil drilling?