Announcements

May 12, 2020 (2:09 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 12 on the homework web page.

May 11, 2020 (10:27 PM)

Here is a link to the final exam!

May 6, 2020 (5:49 AM)

I created a web page pertaining to the final exam.

May 5, 2020 (1:32 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 11 on the homework web page.

May 4, 2020 (6:45 PM)

I added more parts to HW 12 to complete that assignment. (Those are the last HW problems I'll post this semester.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page.

Apr. 30, 2020 (12:25 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 10 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made. *** You can find the solutions to the 2nd midterm exam in the Week 13 section of the Blackboard site. (4 of the 8 students got better than 99.5% on the exam. The other 4 got between 77% and 91%.)

Apr. 24, 2020 (2:53 PM)

Click here to see the second midterm exam, which is due at 11 PM on Monday, April 27. *** Also, I added more parts to HW 11 to complete that assignment, and posted the first portion of HW 12. (More problems will be added to HW 12 later, based on the 13th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page. (Note: I won't finish covering the material pertinent to some of the newly added HW problems until Monday's lecture.)

Apr. 21, 2020 (2:19 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 9 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made.

Apr. 19, 2020 (5:33 PM)

I added more parts to HW 10 to complete that assignment, and posted the first portion of HW 11. (More problems will be added to HW 11 later, based on the 12th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page. *** Also, I created a web page pertaining to the second midterm exam, which describes the exam and gives some study guidelines. By going to the Week 11 section of the Blackboard site, you can find the exam and solutions of the 2nd midterm exam I gave this past fall. (Your exam will be rather similar, and so I recommend studying this exam in addition to the 10 HW problems listed on the web page pertaining to the second midterm exam. (Unfortunately, without having access to my office at GMU I'm unable to put a link to a copy of the exam not having the answers on it.)) *** I plan to post a link to your 2nd midterm exam sometime on Friday (or Saturday, at the latest). Your exam will be due at 11 PM on Monday, April 27.

Apr. 14, 2020 (11:29 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 8 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made. *** Also, I added several more parts to HW 9 to complete that assignment, and posted the first portion of HW 10. (More problems will be added to HW 10 later, based on the 11th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page.

Apr. 7, 2020 (2:14 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 7 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made. *** I think the recording I made of the lecture was successful. (I didn't listen to all of it, but the first part was good, and there is an indication that it is about 2.5 hours long.) I haven't figured out how to put a link in Blackboard so that you can get to the recording easily, but I can explain how to listen to it. First, click on the Week 9 tab, and then within Week 9 click on the link to Blackboard Collaborative Ultra. Near the left end of the black band going across (near the top) with Sessions on it, click on the three horizonatal white line segments (the menu tab). Then click Recordings, and then click Class 9 / recording 1, and from there it should be obvious what to do.

Apr. 2, 2020 (4:04 PM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 6 on the homework web page. Also, I added several more parts to HW 8 to complete that assignment, and posted the first portion of HW 9. (More problems will be added to HW 9 later, based on the 10th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page. (Note: Normally I would wait until Monday to post the new HW problems, but since I'll be setting up a new office this weekend I wanted to go ahead and get the homework posted now. Since I haven't covered the material pertinent to HW 9 yet, it may be better to wait until after Monday's class to try those problems.) *** I posted the solutions to the mideterm exam in the Week 10 section of the STAT 544 Blackboard site. With the exception of two students, the scores were pretty bad considering that it was a take-home, open book exam for which you could spend a lot of time working on. Many of your solutions were rather awkward; I think if would be a good idea to review my HW and exam solutions more and try to write your solutions in a similar style. I'll also point out that many of you used S for an event other than the sample space, which is not good (and one student defined events that were equal to the sample space, which was unnecessary and confusing). *** I'll be packing up my GMU office tonight and setting up a home office in Charleston, SC this weekend. I might be away from e-mail until some time on Saturday.

Mar. 30, 2020 (6:23 PM)

I added several more parts to HW 7 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 8. (More problems will be added to HW 8 later, based on the 9th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page. *** Note that for future weeks, I've shortened the grace period to end at 10:30 PM on the night the assignment is due. This is because they are limiting the time I can spend in my office (and it could be I'll eventually be told I can't use my office any longer). So I will need to gather up the papers quickly and get out of the building as soon as I can after class.

Mar. 27, 2020 (4:44 PM)

Click here to see the take-home midterm exam which is due at 11 PM on Monday, March 30. Please read the instructions carefully (and then follow them). Remember that you should solve the problems on your own, and not get any help from anyone.

Mar. 24, 2020 (2:46 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 5 on the homework web page.

Mar. 23, 2020 (6:44 PM)

I added a few more parts to HW 6 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 7. (More problems will be added to HW 7 later, based on the 8th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page.

Mar. 19, 2020 (3:29 AM)

I updated the syllabus web page to reflect the revised calendar for the remainder of the semester. (Basically, everything is shifted by one week due to the extension of Spring Break.) I also indicated that the exams will be take-home, open-book exams. (The 1st midterm exam will be posted the weekend prior to March 30, and be due on March 30. It'll be exactly the same exam I had planned to give as a 75 minutes closed-book in-class exam, except instead of only counting your best 5 of 6 scores, I'll count the scores for all 6 parts.)

Mar. 18, 2020 (12:27 AM)

Three students were able to join me for the trial online session, and things seemed to go great for me and two of the students. The other student had audio problems, which may have been due to using an incompatible browser (Internet Explorer). The rest of us were using Chrome, and did not experience problems. If you have had online sessions using Blackboard Collaborative Ultra before, then you should be ready for the lecture this coming Monday. But if you've never used it before, and would like to set up a test session, then contact me ... maybe we can test things out on Friday evening (or possibly even Wednesday ... but I'm tied up with lots of other things on Thursday). *** Remember that HW 5 is due on Monday. I'm assuming that each of you has some way to either e-mail or fax their solutions to me by 11:30 PM Monday.

Mar. 17, 2020 (5:11 PM)

Our STAT 544 class resumes a week from yesterday in online mode. Specifically, I'll be using Blackboard Collaborative Ultra to communicate with you. Until this past Saturday, I had never used Blackboard before (since I prefer to make my own course web sites), and I've never taught online before. That being the case, I'm going to follow the recommendations that faculty have been sent about the conversion to online teaching, and teach in a synchronous manner; which means that instead of using prerecorded lectures, you will have to listen to me during the official 7:20 to 10:00 PM time slot on Mondays, starting next week on the 23rd. However, I'd like to do a quick test tonight at 8:20 PM, and I hope that some of you can join me in order to help me determine if things are working as I expect them to. For this test, go to the STAT 544 Blackboard site and in the green panel on the left you should see Week 7. Click there, and then click Blackboard Collaborative Ultra, and then click Test Session. (It's dated 3/15, because I first created it an opened it on Sunday.) I'll be there by 8:10 in case you arrive early, and I'll stay there until 8:40. Please be patient since this will be my first time connecting with anyone else using Collaborate Ultra. (Participation in the test session is optional, but I hope at least a couple of you can make it in order to help me test my understanding of using Collaborative Ultra.) *** Note: On the 23rd, you'll meet me the same way, except instead of clicking on Test Session inside of Collaborative Ultra, you'll click on Class 7, STAT 544. On the 23rd, HW 5 will be due (no 24 hour grace period ... get it to me by 11:30 PM on the 23rd) The midterm exam has been postponed; it won't be on the 23rd. *** Please continue to check in to this web site for further announcements. (I'll quit e-mailing you every time I post something unless it's urgent.) I'll continue to use this web site for everything except for online lectures, virtual office hours, and the posting of the lecture notes (which will be on Blackboard). (Come here for announcements, homework assignments, review web pages, etc.) *** If you didn't get the info about tonight's trial run in time to plan to participate, let me know and I'll announce a 2nd trial run (perhaps tomorrow at 8:40 PM).

Mar. 12, 2020 (1:06 AM)

Late on Wednesday, the faculty was informed that Spring Break would be extended one week, and then all classes would be taught online (at least for a few weeks, and perhaps longer). At this point I don't have enough information to allow me to make good decisions about how to handle everything, but I will state that the midterm exam will be postponed until a later time. As for the homework, I've changed the due date of the next assignment to be submitted to now be Monday, the 23rd. I guess everyone will need to either fax or e-mail their solutions since the administration does not seem to want students coming to campus. If you can create a .pdf file to attach to e-mail, that may be the best thing to do. If you scan handwritten solutions, be sure to write darkly so that the writing on the scanned version is sufficiently dark. Do not e-mail photos of handwritten pages taken with a phone.

Mar. 3, 2020 (5:05 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 4 on the homework web page.

Mar. 2, 2020 (6:04 PM)

I added a few more parts to HW 5 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 6. (More problems will be added to HW 6 later, based on the 7th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page.

Feb. 28, 2020 (5:25 AM)

I created a web page pertaining to the first midterm exam, which describes the exam and gives some study guidelines.

Feb. 25, 2020 (5:00 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 3 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made. (I think it's a good idea to read over my solutions, and read about mistakes that some students made, even if you think you did well on the assignment.)

Feb. 24, 2020 (1:26 PM)

I added a few more parts to HW 4 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 5. (More problems will be added to HW 5 later, based on the 6th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page.

Feb. 18, 2020 (5:01 AM)

I added a few more parts to HW 3 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 4. (More problems will be added to HW 4 later, based on the 5th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page. *** Additionally, I put link to the solutions for HW 2 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made. (I think it's a good idea to read over my solutions, and read about mistakes that some students made, even if you think you did well on the assignment.)

Feb. 11, 2020 (8:48 AM)

I put link to the solutions for HW 1 on the homework web page. Also I gave a summary of the scores and made comments about common mistakes that some students made. (I think it's a good idea to read over my solutions, and read about mistakes that some students made, even if you think you did well on the assignment.)

Feb. 10, 2020 (5:49 PM)

I added a few more parts to HW 2 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 3. (More problems will be added to HW 3 later, based on the 4th lecture.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page.

Feb. 5, 2020 (10:58 AM)

The classroom has been changed ... from now on we'll meet in Room 202 of Research Hall. I changed the syllabus to reflect this.

Feb. 3, 2020 (10:38 AM)

I added a few more parts to HW 1 to complete that assignment, and also posted the first portion of HW 2. (More problems will be added to HW 2 later, based on Ch. 3 material.) Links to all assignments posted so far are on the homework web page. Be sure to read the comments in the Presentation of Homework Solutions portion of the homework web page. (Within the last half hour, I modified the last "bullet" of that section of the web page to suggest some events that you might use for some of the new HW problems posted today.)

Jan. 28, 2020 (1:07 AM)

During that class I mentioned an interesting professor I had when I was a graduate student. Here is a link to an article about him that describes a card shuffling result (that it takes 7 shuffles to randomize a deck of cards), and how he trained himself to flip a coin in such a way as to obtain the same outcome 10 times in a row. And here is a link to a related video (about flipping coins).

Jan. 3, 2020 (3:05 PM)

I just finished updating this web site for the Spring 2020 semester, although I'll add to it as we go through the semester. (If you looked at this web site during the past three hours or so, you caught me in the middle of updating it.) Please take time to read the syllabus rather carefully and also read through the policies and expectations concerning homework on the homework web page. I'll expect students to comply with all of the stated rules and procedures. *** I'll warn you up front that some students have found this course to be rather difficult. I think most students who do poorly in this course are ones who start the semester without having a good enough background in calculus and probability. For the most part, if you haven't sufficiently mastered the prerequisite material, I advise you to wait until later to take this course. (Some exceptional students can do okay in this course even though they haven't previously taken a one-semester course in probability. But it will be the rare case for someone to do well in this course if they begin it being weak in calculus.) On the other hand, for students who have recently completed and done well in a course like STAT 346, this course shouldn't be very difficult. It's very similar to STAT 346, but the problems are typically a little harder and the students are expected to master the material more thoroughly. *** I've left my final posts to my Fall 2014, Spring 2015, and Fall 2017 classes below, to provide you with some evidence that I don't make the final exams for STAT 544 ridicuolously difficult.

Dec. 15, 2017 (1:25 AM)

I submitted the final course grades about 20 minutes ago. Over half of the class earned an A+, A, or A-, and only 4 of 21 students earned less than a B (and that includes one student who seldom attended class or submitted homework papers). Two students scored over 99% on the final exam, and there were also several other scores in the 90s. Over half of the class were able to drop a low midterm score because they got a higher score on the final exam, and some students did better on the final than they did on both of the two midterms. I hope that you have a nice break between semesters, and I plan to see many of you in one of my classes next semester.

May 14, 2015 (8:16 AM)

I entered your final course grades into Patriot Web late last night, and for the first time since I started teaching this course in 2009, no one failed! On the whole, the final exam scores were very good, led by 6 scores in the 90s (and another score of 89.5). One student earned perfect 10s on each of the 11 parts of the exam, and two other students got a score higher than 99. 18 of 27 students were able to use the final exam score to replace a low midterm score, and for 3 of the 9 students who scored lower on the final than on both midterms, it was largely because they had scored high on the midterms, and so there was little room for improvement. Two students scored more than 25 points higher on the final than on both of their midterms (and a 3rd student scored 24.55 points higher).

Dec. 13, 2014 (12:43 AM)

I have submitted the final grades to Patriot Web. The high score on the exam was 100 (and in fact the student who got it would have made 100 even if I had counted all 11 parts, instead of the best 10 of 11).