John Shortle

Last updated: November 16, 2017.

For electronic copies and related papers, see also Center for Air Transportation Systems Research (CATSR).

**2018**

Shortle, J., J. Thompson, D. Gross, C. Harris. 2018. *Fundamentals of Queueing Theory*, 5th edition. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ.

**2017**

Tuck, M. G., F. Alemi, J. Shortle, C. Hesdorffer. 2017. A comprehensive index for predicting risk of anemia from patients' diagnoses. *Big Data*, 5(1), 42-52.

Zare, A., J. Shortle. 2017. Rare event simulation for potential wake encounters. To appear in *Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference*.

Shortle, J., S. Noh, L. Sherry. 2017. Collision risk analysis for alternate airspace architectures. In *Proceedings of the 36th Digital Avionics Systems Conference*. St. Petersburg, FL.

Zare, A., J. Shortle. 2017. Uncertainty analysis for event sequence diagrams in aviation safety. In *Transportation Research Board, 96th Annual Meeting*, Washington, DC, 1-14.

Ye, B., Z. Yang, J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2017. Multiobjective evaluation of various target separation standards for flow corridor based on TOPSIS and entropy. In *Transportation Research Board, 96th Annual Meeting*, Washington, DC, 1-13.

**2016**

Wang, Z., L. Sherry, J. Shortle. 2016. Improving the nowcast of unstable approaches. In *Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Philadelphia, PA.

Noh, S., J. Shortle. 2016. Application of common cause failure methodology to aviation safety assessment model. In *Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Philadelphia, PA. Best paper in track.

Wang, Z., L. Sherry, J. Shortle. 2016. Feasibility of using historical flight track data to nowcast unstable approaches. In *Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference*, Herndon, VA.

**2015**

Shankar, A., J. Shortle. 2015. A spatial and temporal model of IED emplacements against dismounted patrols. *Military Operations Research*, 20(3), 5-24. Winner of *Military Operations Research* Journal Award

Zhang, Y., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2015. Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept. *Reliability Engineering and System Safety*, 142, 444-455.

Wang, S. P., A. Chen, C.W. Liu, C.H. Chen, J. Shortle, J.Y. Wu. 2015. Efficient splitting simulation for blackout analysis. *IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, 30(4), 1775-1783.

Noh, S., J. Shortle. 2015. Fast-time simulation for event sequence diagrams in aviation safety. In *Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference*, L. Yilmaz, W. Chan, I. Moon, T. Roeder, C. Macal, and M. Rosetti (eds.), Huntington Beach, CA, 898-899.

Noh, S., J. Shortle. 2015. Sensitivity analysis of event sequence diagrams for aircraft accident scenarios. In *Proceedings of the 34th Digital Avionics Systems Conference*. Prague, Czech Republic.

Wang, Z., L. Sherry, J. Shortle. 2015. Airspace risk management using surveillance track data: Stabilized approaches. *Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference*, Herndon, VA, W3-1 – W3-15.

**2014**

Ye, B., M. Hu, J. Shortle. 2014. Collision risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model. *Chinese Journal of Aeronautics*, 27, 124-135.

Shortle, J., Y. Zhang. 2014. Safety comparison of centralized and distributed automated separation concepts. *IEEE Transactions on Reliability*, 63(1), 259-269.

Shortle, J., S. Rebennack, F. Glover. 2014. Transmission-capacity expansion for minimizing blackout probabilities. *IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, 29(1), 43-52.

**2013**

Shortle, J. 2013. Efficient simulation of blackout probabilities using splitting. *Electrical Power and Energy Systems*, 44(1), 743-751.

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen. 2013. Sensitivity analysis of rare-event splitting on cascading blackout models. In *Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference*, R. Pasupathy, S.-H. Kim, A. Tolk, R. Hill, and M. E. Kuhl (eds.), Washington, DC.

Belle, A., J. Shortle. 2013. A methodology for estimating the probability of potential secondary conflicts. In *Proceedings of the 32nd Digital Avionics Systems Conference*. Syracuse, NY, Best paper in session.

Shortle, J., L. Sherry. 2013 A model for investigating factors affecting go-arounds and throughput. In *Aviation 2013*, Los Angeles, CA.

Zhang, Y., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2013. Methodology for collision risk assessment of flow corridor concept. In *Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference*, Herndon, VA.

Sherry, L., Z. Wang, H. Kourdali, J. Shortle. 2013. Big data analysis of irregular operations: aborted approaches and their underlying factors. In *Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference*, Herndon, VA.

**2012**

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen, B. Crain, A. Brodsky, D. Brod. 2012. Optimal splitting for rare-event simulation. *IIE Transactions*, 44(5), 352-367.

Jeddi, B. G., J. Shortle. 2012. A model for runway landing flow and capacity with risk and cost benefit factors. *Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering*, 6(1), 1-19.

Yousefi, A., R. Xie, S. Krishna, J. Shortle, Y. Zhang. 2012. Safety analysis tool for automated airspace concepts (SafeATAC). In *Proceedings of the 31st Digital Avionics Systems Conference*, Williamsburg, VA, 4C2-1 – 4C2-13.

Wang, Z., J. Shortle. 2012. Sensitivity Analysis of potential wake encounters to stochastic flight-track parameters. In *Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Berkeley, CA.

Belle, A., J. Shortle, A. Yousefi. 2012. Estimation of potential conflict rates as a function of sector loading. In *Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Berkeley, CA.

Ye, B., M. Hu, J. Shortle. 2012. Risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model. In *Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Berkeley, CA.

Shortle, J., L. Sherry, A. Yousefi, R. Xie. 2012. Safety and sensitivity analysis of the advanced airspace concept for NextGen. In *Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference*, Herndon, VA.

**2011**

Crain, B., C. H. Chen, J. Shortle. 2011. Combining simulation allocation and optimal splitting for rare-event simulation optimization. In *Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference*, S. Jain, R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K. White, M. Fu (eds.), Phoenix, AZ.

Masi, D., M. Fischer, J. Shortle, C.H. Chen. 2011. Simulating network cyber attacks using splitting techniques. In *Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference*, S. Jain, R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K. White, M. Fu (eds.), Phoenix, AZ.

Wang, S. P., A. Chen, C. W. Liu, C. H. Chen, J. Shortle. 2011. Rare-event splitting simulation for analysis of power system blackouts. In *Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting*, Detroit, MI, paper 678.

Wang, J., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2011. Simulating the impact of gate operation disruptions and mitigation strategies on gate delay. In *Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference*, Herndon, VA, paper M3, 1-15.

Shortle, J., P. L’Ecuyer. 2011. Introduction to rare-event simulation. In *Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science*, J. Cochran (ed.).

**2010**

Shortle, J., M. Fischer. 2010. Approximation for a two-class weighted fair queueing discipline. *Performance Evaluation*, 67(10), 946-958.

Shortle, J., Zhang, Y., Wang, J. 2010. Statistical characteristics of aircraft arrival tracks. *Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board*. No. 2177, 98-104.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, J. Shortle, C. H. Chen. 2010. Simulating non-stationary congestion systems using splitting with applications to cyber security. In *Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference*, B. Johansson, S. Jain, J. Montoya-Torres, J. Hugan, E. Yucesan (eds.), Baltimore, MD, 2865-2875..

Zhang, Y., J. Shortle. 2010. Comparison of arrival tracks at different airports. In *Fourth International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Budapest, Hungary, 481-486.

Shortle, J., L. Sherry. 2010. The relationship between rationalized schedules and reduced arrival variability. In *10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference*, Fort Worth, TX.

Wang, J., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2010. Analysis of New York LaGuardia Airport gate-waiting delays. In *Transportation Research Board, 89th Annual Meeting*, Washington, DC.

Shortle, J., C. Chen, M. Fischer, D. Masi. 2010. An effective rare-event simulation technique and its application to cyber security and electric grids. In *Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis for Homeland Security*, Arlington, VA.

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen. 2010. What can lead to a wide-scale blackout? *Sigma*, 10(1), 11-15.

Shortle, J. 2010. Review of: *Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes*, by S. Resnick. *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, 61(10), 1556.

Shortle, J. 2010. Review of: *Level Crossing Methods in Stochastic Models*, by P. Brill, *Journal of the Operational Research Society*, 61(5), 889.

**2009**

Shortle, J., B. Mark, D. Gross. 2009. Reduction of closed queueing networks for efficient simulation. *Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation*, 19(3), 10:1-10:22.

Jeddi, B., G. Donohue, J. Shortle. 2009. A statistical analysis of the aircraft landing process. *Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering*, 3(3), 152-169.

Wang, J., J. Shortle, J. Wang, L. Sherry. 2009. Analysis of gate-waiting delays at major US airports. In *9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference*, Hilton Head, SC, paper AIAA 2009-7085.

Sherry, L., J. Shortle. 2009. Why equity is so elusive: dynamical properties of overscheduled national airspace system resources. In *9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference*, Hilton Head, SC, paper AIAA 2009-6919.

Sherry, L., J. Shortle, M. Consiglio. 2009. Why equity is a pipedream: analysis of the dynamics of overscheduled NAS resources. In *Proceedings of the 2009 Integrated Communications Navigation and Surveillance Conference*. Arlington, VA.

**2008**

Gross, D., J. Shortle, J. Thompson, C. Harris. 2008. *Fundamentals of Queueing Theory*, 4th edition. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ.

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen. 2008. A preliminary study of optimal splitting for rare-event simulation. In *Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference*. S. J. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Monch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, J. W. Fowler (eds.), Miami, FL, 266-272.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2008. Simulating the performance of a class-based weighted fair queueing system, In *Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference*. S. J. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Monch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, J. W. Fowler (eds.), Miami, FL, 2901-2908.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2008. Approximating low latency queueing buffer latency. *The Telecommunications Review* 19, 67-73.

**2007**

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, P. Brill. 2007. Waiting-time distribution of M/DN/1 queues through numerical Laplace inversion, *INFORMS Journal on Computing*, 19(1), 112-120.

Shortle, J., B. Jeddi. 2007. Using multilateration data in probabilistic analysis of wake vortex hazards for landing aircraft. *Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board*. No. 2007, 90-96.

Shortle, J. 2007. A comparison of wake-vortex models for use in probabilistic aviation safety analysis, In *Proceedings of the International System Safety Conference,* A. G. Boyer, N. J. Gauthier (eds.), Baltimore, MD, 581-589.

Jeddi, B., J. Shortle. 2007. Throughput, risk, and economic optimality of runway landing operations, In *7th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar*, Barcelona, Spain, Paper 162.

**2006**

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 2006. A generalized framework for probabilistic design with application to rotors, *IEEE Transactions on Reliability*, 55(1), 44-52.

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi. 2006. Using the Pareto distribution in queueing modeling. *Journal of Probability and Statistical Science*, 4(1), 85-98.

Jeddi, B., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2006. Statistical separation standards for the aircraft-approach process. In *Proceedings of the 25th Digital Avionics Systems Conference*, Portland, OR, Best session paper, 2A1-1 – 2A1-13.

Jeddi, B., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2006. Statistics of the approach process at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport. In *Second International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro, 85-92.

Shortle, J. 2006. Review of: *Tutorials in Operations Research 2005, Emerging Theory, Methods, and Applications*, H. Greenberg, J. C. Smith (eds.), in *Interfaces* 36(6), 612-613.

**2005**

Shortle, J., P. Brill. 2005. Analytical distribution of waiting time in the M/{iD}/1 queue, *Queueing Systems* 50(2), 185-197.

Shortle, J. 2005. Piecewise-polynomial approximations for heavy-tailed distributions in queueing analysis, *Stochastic Models*, 21(1), 215-234.

Shortle, J., M. Allocco. 2005. Applying qualitative hazard analysis to support quantitative safety analysis for proposed reduced wake separation conops, In *6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar*, Baltimore, MD.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle, P. Choroba. 2005. Quantitative estimation of wake vortex safety using the P2P model, In *6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar*, Baltimore, MD.

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, D. Masi. 2005. Estimating delay in a data network through numerical Laplace inversion, *The Telecommunications Review* 16, 69-77.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, D. Gross, J. Shortle. 2005. One-parameter Pareto, two-parameter Pareto, three-parameter Pareto: Is there a modeling difference?, *The Telecommunications Review* 16, 79-92.

**2004**

Shortle, J., P. Brill, M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi. 2004. An algorithm to compute the waiting time distribution for the M/G/1 queue, *INFORMS Journal on Computing*, 16(2), 152-161.

Shortle, J. 2004. The equivalent random method with hyper-exponential service, *Performance Evaluation*, 57(3), 409-422.

Shortle, J., Y. Xie, C.H. Chen, G. Donohue. 2004. Simulating collision probabilities of landing airplanes at non-towered airports, *Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International*, 80(1), 21-31.

Speijker, L., G. van Baren, L. Sherry, J. Shortle, F. Rico-Cusi. 2004. Assessment of wake vortex separation distance using the WAVIR toolset, In *Proceedings of the 23rd Digital Avionics Systems Conference*, Salt Lake City, UT, 2.E.2.1-2.E.2.11.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle, G. Donohue. 2004. Airport terminal-approach safety and capacity analysis using an agent-based model, In *Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference*, Ingalls, R., et al. (eds.), 1349-1357.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle. 2004. Landing safety analysis of an independent arrival runway, In *First International Conference on Research in Air Transportation*, best session paper, Zilina, Slovakia, 45-51.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, D. Gross, J. Shortle. 2004. Loss systems with heavy-tailed arrivals, *The Telecommunications Review* 15, 95-99.

**2003**

Shortle, J. 2003. Dynamic call blocking algorithms for telecommunications networks, *IEEE Transactions on Communications*, 51(5), 741-747.

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi. 2003. Using the transform approximation method to analyze queues with heavy-tailed service, *Journal of Probability and Statistical Science*, 1(1), 15-27, 2003.

Shortle, J., D. Gross, B. Mark. 2003. Efficient simulation of the national airspace system, *Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference*, Chick, S., et al. (eds.), 441-448.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, D. Gross, J. Shortle. 2003. Using the correct heavy-tailed arrival distribution in modeling congestion systems, In *Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Telecommunication Systems, Modeling, and Analysis*, Monterey, CA, 154-162.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle, G. Donohue. 2003. Runway landing safety analysis: a case study of Atlanta Hartsfield Airport, *Proceedings of the 22nd Digital Avionics Systems Conference*, Indianapolis, IN, 5.A.2-1 - 5.A.2-12.

Shortle, J., D. Gross, M. Fischer, D. Masi. 2003. Numerical methods for analyzing queues with heavy-tailed distributions, in *Telecommunications Network Design*, Anandalingam, G., S. Raghavan (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, 193-206.

Shortle, J., Y. Xie, C.H. Chen, G. Donohue. 2003. Estimating collision probabilities of landing airplanes at non-towered airports, in *Transportation Research Board, 82nd Annual Meeting*, Washington, DC.

**2002**

Sees, J., J. Shortle. 2002. Simulating M/G/1 queues with heavy-tailed service, *Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference*, Yucesan, E., et al. (eds.), 433-438.

Gross, D., M. Fischer, J. Shortle, D. Masi. 2002. Difficulties in simulating queues with Pareto service, In *Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference*, Yucesan, E., et al., (eds.), 407-415.

Brill, P., M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2002. Structural properties of the transform approximation method and recursion method, *The Telecommunications Review* 13, 121-128.

**2001**

Shortle, J., D. Dietz, P. Katz, C. Williamson, J. Koehler, A. Elcan. 2001. Optimal design of a data-offload network, *Interfaces*, 31(5), 4-12. Winning paper for Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 2001. Physical foundations for lifetime distributions, in *System and Bayesian Reliability*, Hayakawa, Y., T. Irony, M. Xie (eds.), World Scientific, New Jersey, 257-266.

Fischer, M., D. Gross, D. Masi, J. Shortle, P. Brill. 2001. Using quantile estimates in simulating Internet queues with Pareto service times, In *Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference*, Peters, B., et al. (eds.), 477-485.

Fischer, M., D. Gross, D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2001. Analyzing the waiting time process in Internet queueing systems with the transform approximation method, *The Telecommunications Review* 12, 21-32.

**2000 and earlier**

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 2000. A new method of drawing probability densities, *Computational Statistics and Data Analysis*, 32(3-4), 313-321.

Shortle, J. 1997. Review engineering perspective (review of ‘Optimal Maintenance Decisions for the Sea-Bed Protection of the Eastern-Scheldt Barrier,’ van Noortwijk J., et al.), in *Engineering Probabilistic Design and Maintenance for Flood Protection*, Cooke, R., M. Mendel, H. Vrijling (eds.), Kluwer Publishers, 61-66.

Chick, S., J. Shortle, P. van Gelder, M. Mendel. 1996. A model for the frequency of extreme river levels based on river dynamics, *Structural Safety*, 18(4), 261-276.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 1996. Predicting dynamic imbalance in rotors, *Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics*, 11(1), 31-35.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 1996. Probabilistic design of rotors: minimizing imbalance, *American Statistical Association, 1996 Proceedings of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science*, Chicago, IL, 70-74.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 1994. The geometry of Bayesian inference, in *Bayesian Statistics 5*, Bernardo, J. et al. (eds.), Oxford University Press, 739-746.

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