John Shortle

Publications


Last updated: September 25, 2015.

For electronic copies and related papers, see also Center for Air Transportation Systems Research (CATSR).

2015

Shankar, A., J. Shortle. 2015. A spatial and temporal model of IED emplacements against dismounted patrols. To appear in Military Operations Research.

Zhang, Y., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2015. Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 142, 444-455.

Wang, S. P., A. Chen, C.W. Liu, C.H. Chen, J. Shortle, J.Y. Wu. 2015. Efficient splitting simulation for blackout analysis. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 30(4), 1775-1783.

Noh, S., J. Shortle. 2015. Sensitivity analysis of event sequence diagrams for aircraft accident scenarios. In Proceedings of the 34th Digital Avionics Systems Conference. Prague, Czech Republic.

Wang, Z., L. Sherry, J. Shortle. 2015. Airspace risk management using surveillance track data: Stabilized approaches. Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference, Herndon, VA, W3-1 – W3-15.

2014

Ye, B., M. Hu, J. Shortle. 2014. Collision risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 27, 124-135.

Shortle, J., Y. Zhang. 2014. Safety comparison of centralized and distributed automated separation concepts. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 63(1), 259-269.

Shortle, J., S. Rebennack, F. Glover. 2014. Transmission-capacity expansion for minimizing blackout probabilities. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 29(1), 43-52.

2013

Shortle, J. 2013. Efficient simulation of blackout probabilities using splitting. Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 44(1), 743-751.

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen. 2013. Sensitivity analysis of rare-event splitting on cascading blackout models. In Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference, R. Pasupathy, S.-H. Kim, A. Tolk, R. Hill, and M. E. Kuhl (eds.), Washington, DC.

Belle, A., J. Shortle. 2013. A methodology for estimating the probability of potential secondary conflicts. In Proceedings of the 32nd Digital Avionics Systems Conference. Syracuse, NY, Best paper in session.

Shortle, J., L. Sherry. 2013 A model for investigating factors affecting go-arounds and throughput. In Aviation 2013, Los Angeles, CA.

Zhang, Y., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2013. Methodology for collision risk assessment of flow corridor concept. In Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference, Herndon, VA.

Sherry, L., Z. Wang, H. Kourdali, J. Shortle. 2013. Big data analysis of irregular operations: aborted approaches and their underlying factors. In Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference, Herndon, VA.

2012

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen, B. Crain, A. Brodsky, D. Brod. 2012. Optimal splitting for rare-event simulation. IIE Transactions, 44(5), 352-367.

Jeddi, B. G., J. Shortle. 2012. A model for runway landing flow and capacity with risk and cost benefit factors. Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 6(1), 1-19.

Yousefi, A., R. Xie, S. Krishna, J. Shortle, Y. Zhang. 2012. Safety analysis tool for automated airspace concepts (SafeATAC). In Proceedings of the 31st Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Williamsburg, VA, 4C2-1 – 4C2-13.

Wang, Z., J. Shortle. 2012. Sensitivity Analysis of potential wake encounters to stochastic flight-track parameters. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, Berkeley, CA.

Belle, A., J. Shortle, A. Yousefi. 2012. Estimation of potential conflict rates as a function of sector loading. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, Berkeley, CA.

Ye, B., M. Hu, J. Shortle. 2012. Risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, Berkeley, CA.

Shortle, J., L. Sherry, A. Yousefi, R. Xie. 2012. Safety and sensitivity analysis of the advanced airspace concept for NextGen. In Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference, Herndon, VA.

2011

Crain, B., C. H. Chen, J. Shortle. 2011. Combining simulation allocation and optimal splitting for rare-event simulation optimization. In Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference, S. Jain, R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K. White, M. Fu (eds.), Phoenix, AZ.

Masi, D., M. Fischer, J. Shortle, C.H. Chen. 2011. Simulating network cyber attacks using splitting techniques. In Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference, S. Jain, R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K. White, M. Fu (eds.), Phoenix, AZ.

Wang, S. P., A. Chen, C. W. Liu, C. H. Chen, J. Shortle. 2011. Rare-event splitting simulation for analysis of power system blackouts. In Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Detroit, MI, paper 678.

Wang, J., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2011. Simulating the impact of gate operation disruptions and mitigation strategies on gate delay. In Proceedings of the Integrated Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance Conference, Herndon, VA, paper M3, 1-15.

Shortle, J., P. L’Ecuyer. 2011. Introduction to rare-event simulation. In Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, J. Cochran (ed.).

2010

Shortle, J., M. Fischer. 2010. Approximation for a two-class weighted fair queueing discipline. Performance Evaluation, 67(10), 946-958.

Shortle, J., Zhang, Y., Wang, J. 2010. Statistical characteristics of aircraft arrival tracks. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 2177, 98-104.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, J. Shortle, C. H. Chen. 2010. Simulating non-stationary congestion systems using splitting with applications to cyber security. In Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference, B. Johansson, S. Jain, J. Montoya-Torres, J. Hugan, E. Yucesan (eds.), Baltimore, MD, 2865-2875..

Zhang, Y., J. Shortle. 2010. Comparison of arrival tracks at different airports. In Fourth International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, Budapest, Hungary, 481-486.

Shortle, J., L. Sherry. 2010. The relationship between rationalized schedules and reduced arrival variability. In 10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Fort Worth, TX.

Wang, J., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2010. Analysis of New York LaGuardia Airport gate-waiting delays. In Transportation Research Board, 89th Annual Meeting, Washington, DC.

Shortle, J., C. Chen, M. Fischer, D. Masi. 2010. An effective rare-event simulation technique and its application to cyber security and electric grids. In Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis for Homeland Security, Arlington, VA.

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen. 2010. What can lead to a wide-scale blackout? Sigma, 10(1), 11-15.

Shortle, J. 2010. Review of: Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes, by S. Resnick. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 61(10), 1556.

Shortle, J. 2010. Review of: Level Crossing Methods in Stochastic Models, by P. Brill, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 61(5), 889.

2009

Shortle, J., B. Mark, D. Gross. 2009. Reduction of closed queueing networks for efficient simulation. Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 19(3), 10:1-10:22.

Jeddi, B., G. Donohue, J. Shortle. 2009. A statistical analysis of the aircraft landing process. Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 3(3), 152-169.

Wang, J., J. Shortle, J. Wang, L. Sherry. 2009. Analysis of gate-waiting delays at major US airports. In 9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Hilton Head, SC, paper AIAA 2009-7085.

Sherry, L., J. Shortle. 2009. Why equity is so elusive: dynamical properties of overscheduled national airspace system resources. In 9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Hilton Head, SC, paper AIAA 2009-6919.

Sherry, L., J. Shortle, M. Consiglio. 2009. Why equity is a pipedream: analysis of the dynamics of overscheduled NAS resources. In Proceedings of the 2009 Integrated Communications Navigation and Surveillance Conference. Arlington, VA.

2008

Gross, D., J. Shortle, J. Thompson, C. Harris. 2008. Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th edition. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ.

Shortle, J., C. H. Chen. 2008. A preliminary study of optimal splitting for rare-event simulation. In Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference. S. J. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Monch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, J. W. Fowler (eds.), Miami, FL, 266-272.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2008. Simulating the performance of a class-based weighted fair queueing system, In Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference. S. J. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Monch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, J. W. Fowler (eds.), Miami, FL, 2901-2908.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2008. Approximating low latency queueing buffer latency. The Telecommunications Review 19, 67-73.

2007

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, P. Brill. 2007. Waiting-time distribution of M/DN/1 queues through numerical Laplace inversion, INFORMS Journal on Computing, 19(1), 112-120.

Shortle, J., B. Jeddi. 2007. Using multilateration data in probabilistic analysis of wake vortex hazards for landing aircraft. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 2007, 90-96.

Shortle, J. 2007. A comparison of wake-vortex models for use in probabilistic aviation safety analysis, In Proceedings of the International System Safety Conference, A. G. Boyer, N. J. Gauthier (eds.), Baltimore, MD, 581-589.

Jeddi, B., J. Shortle. 2007. Throughput, risk, and economic optimality of runway landing operations, In 7th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar, Barcelona, Spain, Paper 162.

2006

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 2006. A generalized framework for probabilistic design with application to rotors, IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 55(1), 44-52.

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi. 2006. Using the Pareto distribution in queueing modeling. Journal of Probability and Statistical Science, 4(1), 85-98.

Jeddi, B., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2006. Statistical separation standards for the aircraft-approach process. In Proceedings of the 25th Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Portland, OR, Best session paper, 2A1-1 – 2A1-13.

Jeddi, B., J. Shortle, L. Sherry. 2006. Statistics of the approach process at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport. In Second International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro, 85-92.

Shortle, J. 2006. Review of: Tutorials in Operations Research 2005, Emerging Theory, Methods, and Applications, H. Greenberg, J. C. Smith (eds.), in Interfaces 36(6), 612-613.

2005

Shortle, J., P. Brill. 2005. Analytical distribution of waiting time in the M/{iD}/1 queue, Queueing Systems 50(2), 185-197.

Shortle, J. 2005. Piecewise-polynomial approximations for heavy-tailed distributions in queueing analysis, Stochastic Models, 21(1), 215-234.

Shortle, J., M. Allocco. 2005. Applying qualitative hazard analysis to support quantitative safety analysis for proposed reduced wake separation conops, In 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar, Baltimore, MD.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle, P. Choroba. 2005. Quantitative estimation of wake vortex safety using the P2P model, In 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar, Baltimore, MD.

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, D. Masi. 2005. Estimating delay in a data network through numerical Laplace inversion, The Telecommunications Review 16, 69-77.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, D. Gross, J. Shortle. 2005. One-parameter Pareto, two-parameter Pareto, three-parameter Pareto: Is there a modeling difference?, The Telecommunications Review 16, 79-92.

2004

Shortle, J., P. Brill, M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi. 2004. An algorithm to compute the waiting time distribution for the M/G/1 queue, INFORMS Journal on Computing, 16(2), 152-161.

Shortle, J. 2004. The equivalent random method with hyper-exponential service, Performance Evaluation, 57(3), 409-422.

Shortle, J., Y. Xie, C.H. Chen, G. Donohue. 2004. Simulating collision probabilities of landing airplanes at non-towered airports, Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International, 80(1), 21-31.

Speijker, L., G. van Baren, L. Sherry, J. Shortle, F. Rico-Cusi. 2004. Assessment of wake vortex separation distance using the WAVIR toolset, In Proceedings of the 23rd Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Salt Lake City, UT, 2.E.2.1-2.E.2.11.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle, G. Donohue. 2004. Airport terminal-approach safety and capacity analysis using an agent-based model, In Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, Ingalls, R., et al. (eds.), 1349-1357.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle. 2004. Landing safety analysis of an independent arrival runway, In First International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, best session paper, Zilina, Slovakia, 45-51.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, D. Gross, J. Shortle. 2004. Loss systems with heavy-tailed arrivals, The Telecommunications Review 15, 95-99.

2003

Shortle, J. 2003. Dynamic call blocking algorithms for telecommunications networks, IEEE Transactions on Communications, 51(5), 741-747.

Shortle, J., M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi. 2003. Using the transform approximation method to analyze queues with heavy-tailed service, Journal of Probability and Statistical Science, 1(1), 15-27, 2003.

Shortle, J., D. Gross, B. Mark. 2003. Efficient simulation of the national airspace system, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, Chick, S., et al. (eds.), 441-448.

Fischer, M., D. Masi, D. Gross, J. Shortle. 2003. Using the correct heavy-tailed arrival distribution in modeling congestion systems, In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Telecommunication Systems, Modeling, and Analysis, Monterey, CA, 154-162.

Xie, Y., J. Shortle, G. Donohue. 2003. Runway landing safety analysis: a case study of Atlanta Hartsfield Airport, Proceedings of the 22nd Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Indianapolis, IN, 5.A.2-1 - 5.A.2-12.

Shortle, J., D. Gross, M. Fischer, D. Masi. 2003. Numerical methods for analyzing queues with heavy-tailed distributions, in Telecommunications Network Design, Anandalingam, G., S. Raghavan (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, 193-206.

Shortle, J., Y. Xie, C.H. Chen, G. Donohue. 2003. Estimating collision probabilities of landing airplanes at non-towered airports, in Transportation Research Board, 82nd Annual Meeting, Washington, DC.

2002

Sees, J., J. Shortle. 2002. Simulating M/G/1 queues with heavy-tailed service, Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference, Yucesan, E., et al. (eds.), 433-438.

Gross, D., M. Fischer, J. Shortle, D. Masi. 2002. Difficulties in simulating queues with Pareto service, In Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simulation Conference, Yucesan, E., et al., (eds.), 407-415.

Brill, P., M. Fischer, D. Gross, D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2002. Structural properties of the transform approximation method and recursion method, The Telecommunications Review 13, 121-128.

2001

Shortle, J., D. Dietz, P. Katz, C. Williamson, J. Koehler, A. Elcan. 2001. Optimal design of a data-offload network, Interfaces, 31(5), 4-12. Winning paper for Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 2001. Physical foundations for lifetime distributions, in System and Bayesian Reliability, Hayakawa, Y., T. Irony, M. Xie (eds.), World Scientific, New Jersey, 257-266.

Fischer, M., D. Gross, D. Masi, J. Shortle, P. Brill. 2001. Using quantile estimates in simulating Internet queues with Pareto service times, In Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, Peters, B., et al. (eds.), 477-485.

Fischer, M., D. Gross, D. Masi, J. Shortle. 2001. Analyzing the waiting time process in Internet queueing systems with the transform approximation method, The Telecommunications Review 12, 21-32.

2000 and earlier

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 2000. A new method of drawing probability densities, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 32(3-4), 313-321.

Shortle, J. 1997. Review engineering perspective (review of ‘Optimal Maintenance Decisions for the Sea-Bed Protection of the Eastern-Scheldt Barrier,’ van Noortwijk J., et al.), in Engineering Probabilistic Design and Maintenance for Flood Protection, Cooke, R., M. Mendel, H. Vrijling (eds.), Kluwer Publishers, 61-66.

Chick, S., J. Shortle, P. van Gelder, M. Mendel. 1996. A model for the frequency of extreme river levels based on river dynamics, Structural Safety, 18(4), 261-276.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 1996. Predicting dynamic imbalance in rotors, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 11(1), 31-35.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 1996. Probabilistic design of rotors: minimizing imbalance, American Statistical Association, 1996 Proceedings of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, Chicago, IL, 70-74.

Shortle, J., M. Mendel. 1994. The geometry of Bayesian inference, in Bayesian Statistics 5, Bernardo, J. et al. (eds.), Oxford University Press, 739-746.


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