Press Coverage of Robin Hanson and Policy Analysis Market

The following are press/media on the Policy Analysis Market that mention Robin Hanson.


Geoff Colvin (interviewer), Trading war futures, Wall Street Week with Fortune, March 14, 2003. video audio

Lisa Sylvester (interviewer), Pentagon Scraps Terror Futures Trading Market, CNNFN Street Sweep, 3:00pm ET, July 29, 2003. mirror

Gregg Jarrett (interviewer), Future Horrors - A cancelled Pentagon plan would have allowed betting on future terrorist attacks, Fox News The Big Story, 5:33pm ET, July 29, 2003. mirror

Kathy Fountain (interviewer), Betting on Terrorism?, Your Turn, Fox13 News, Tampa Bay, 12:25pm ET, September 23, 2003.

Andrea Koppel (interviewer), Betting on the Future, Next@CNN, CNN, 5:25pm ET, October 5, 2003. mirror

Liam Halligan (interviewer), Predictive Markets, (United Kingdom) Channel 4 News, April 13, 2004.

Lindsey Arent (interviewer), Political Betting, KFOX-TV El Paso, WJAC-TV Johnstown (customers of COX Broadcasting), evening, September 2, 2004. Also aired sometime that weekend (Sept. 3-6) on KIRO-TV Seattle, KTVU-TV San Francisco, and WTOV-TV Stuebenville.


Bob McCormick (interviewer), KNX1070 (CBS) News Radio Hi-Tech Show, Los Angeles, 6:30pm ET, July 30, 2003.

Blaquita Cullum (interviewer), Radio America News Beat, 12:00pm ET, August 1, 2003.

Lyse Doucet (interviewer), Betting on Terror, The Connection (from WBUR Boston and NPR), August 4, 2003. (review) mirror

Diana Swain (interviewer), Futures Economist, The Current, CBC Radio, August 12. 2003. mirror

Douglas Heingartner (interviewer), Wired/CBS News, August 26, 2003.

Daily Print Media

Dan Mihalopoulos, Online Betting Pools Offer Chance to Wager on Outcome of Real-World Events Chicago Tribune CN Edition, page 1, Mar 17, 2003. mirror

Carolyn Said, Pentagon to start futures market for terror attacks - WAGERING: Concept is based on a legitimate theory, San Francisco Chronicle, July 29, 2003. mirror

Conor Dougherty, Pentagon dumps futures market on global terror, San Diego Union, July 30, 2003. mirror

Michael Remez, Terror Bets Are Off - Pentagon Drops Plan For Futures Market, Hartford Courant, July 30, 2003. mirror

Dan Gillmor, Terrorism `market' has certain allure, San Jose Mercury News, 1C, July 30, 2003. mirror

Steven Pearlstein, Misplacing Trust in the Markets, Washington Post, Page E01, July 30, 2003. mirror

Zachary Coile, Proposal to trade in world events junked - Boxer wants ouster of officials behind futures-market plan, San Francisco Chronicle, July 30, 2003. mirror

Bradley Graham, Poindexter to Leave Pentagon Research Job: Project to Create Futures Market on Events in Middle East Caused Controversy, Washington Post, Page A01, August 1, 2003. Also same day in Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 1A. mirror

Floyd Norris, Ideas & Trends; Betting on Terror: What Markets Can Reveal, New York Times Late Edition - Final , Section 4 , Page 5 , Column 1, August 3, 2003. mirror

Ignorance Is Bliss, The Richmond Times-Dispatch (Virginia) A-8, August 4, 2003. mirror

Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad, Terror Futures: A Badla on the Lashkar e Taiba, Indian Express, August 9, 2003. mirror

Tim Harford, Information Markets: All bets are off at the Pentagon, Financial Times, London, page 8 (ad on page 1), September 2, 2003. mirror

David Ballingrud, Wanna Bet? It was one of the worst ideas the Pentagon ever had. And it might have worked., St. Petersburg Times, page 1.D, Florida, September 14, 2003. mirror

Ronald Bailey, Betting on Terrorists, Irish Independent, Pages 12-15, September 27, 2003. mirror 1 2 3

Peter Wayner, Predict the Future? You Can Bet on It, New York Times, Page E9, October 2, 2003. mirror

Anders Sandberg, On Idea Futures - Making Politicians Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is, Svenska Dagbladet, October 7, 2003.

Yoko Noge, ?, Nikkei Financial Daily, page 7, November 4, 2003.

Tony Batt, Interest in wagering on events perseveres, Las Vegas Review Journal, Business Section, December 23, 2003. mirror

Liam Halligan and Philip Carter, A market in mayhem, London Telegraph, April 18, 2004. mirror

J. Scott Orr, They're betting their futures on politics - Online traders hope to cash in by predicting the outcome of elections, Newark Star Ledger, June 01, 2004.

Spencer Jakab, New ICAP-Nymex Derivatives Have U.S. Gas Market's Number. Wall Street Journal Eastern edition, page 1, Aug 4, 2004. Also appeared as Dow Jones Newswires, 1528ET, July 30, 2004.

Enda D. Layuk Allo, Prediction markets facilitate better decision and policy making, Jakarta Post, June 6, 2005.

Joe Nocera, The Future Divined by the Crowd, New York Times, B1, March 11, 2006.

Paul Parsons, Predicting the future - with the power of betting, Telegraph, August 18, 2008.

Weekly Print Media

Shane Kite, Project Seeks Terror Clues in Marts, Securities Industry News, 17 March 2003. mirror

Richard Siklos, Poindexter was thinking out of the box - Pandora's box, Sunday Telegraph (London), Page 6, August 3, 2003. mirror

Bill Forman, Wagers of sin - Team Bush�€™s terrorism-futures scam takes market fundamentalism to apocalyptic extremes, Sacremento News & Review, August 7, 2003. mirror

Charles Seife, `Terrorism Futures' Could Have a Future, Experts Say, Science 301:749, August 8, 2003. mirror

Dan Caterinicchia, DOD's misguided bet on the future, Federal Computer Week, August 11, 2003 mirror (web version appeared August 1, 2003).

Rana Foroohar, Reading the Tea Leaves - A far-out idea, killed by the Pentagon, might have worked, Newsweek International, August 11, 2003. mirror

David Glenn, Verbatim: Defending the 'Terrorism Futures' Market, The Chronicle of Higher Education 49(49):A16, August 15, 2003. mirror

Peter Coy, Betting on Terror: PR Disaster, Intriguing Idea, Business Week, page 41, August 25, 2003.(Web version in BusinessWeek online, August 8, 2003). mirror

Erica Klarreich, Best Guess: Economists explore betting markets as prediction tools, Science News 164(16), October 18, 2003. mirror

Noam Scheiber, Futures Markets in Everything, Year in Ideas, New York Times Magazine, page 68, December 14, 2003. mirror

Barbara Kiviat, The End Of Management? and Looking Ahead, Time, Inside Business, A4, July 12, 2004. (online July 6.) mirror and mirror

Alan Joch, Is there a future for futures trading? Despite the DARPA debacle, experts say the idea has merit, Federal Computer Week, Aug. 30, 2004. mirror

Bi-Monthly Print Media

Jeremy Kahn, Free Thinkers: The Man Who Would Have Us Bet on Terrorism: Robin Hanson, the brainiac economist behind the Pentagon's ill-fated 'terrorism market,' isn't as crazy as he sounds. Fortune 148(5), pages 179-186, September 15, 2003. mirror (web version on September 2, 2003.)

Monthly Print Media

Spencer Reiss, Darpa's Gambling Man, Wired, page 53, October 2003. mirror

Maria Kielmas, Geopolitical Futures: The politics of betting, Energy & Power Risk Management 8(7), October 2003. mirror

Betting on our future, Nature Immunology 4(11):1039, November 2003. mirror

Rachael Horsewood, A Farewell to Arms: What the DARPA Funded Market in Geopolitical Risk Futures Would Have Looked Like, Financial Engineering News 34, November/December 2003. mirror

Tom Malone, Bringing The Market Inside, Harvard Business Review, pp. 106-114, April 2004. mirror

Harvey D. Shapiro, We Have Seen The Futures, Hemispheres, pages 57-59, May 2004. mirror

Michael Abramowicz, Information Markets, Administrative Decisionmaking, and Predictive Cost-Benefit Analysis. The University of Chicago Law Review, July 1, 2004. excerpt mirror

Navroz Patel, Deciding on a Future, Risk, February 1, 2006.

Martin Griffiths, Physicists who fancy a flutter, Physics World, December 2006.

Mark Henricks, Using an Online Trading Market to Predict Success, Entrepreneur Magazine 17-18, February, 2007.

Steven Cherry, Bet on it!, IEEE Spectrum, 48-53, September 2007.

Gary Stix, When Markets Beat The Polls, Scientific American, March 2008.

Quarterly Print Media

Carl Elliott, The Transhumanist Adventure, The Wilson Quarterly 27(4):13, Autumn 2003. mirror

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, Prediction Markets, Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2):107-126, Spring 2004.

Vanessa Sumo, Ask the Market, Richmond Federal Reserve Region Focus, pp. 20-23. Spring 2007.

Nicholas Desai, The Virginia School, Doublethink, Winter 2008.

Meghan Holloway, Profiting From Terrorism: Futures Markets and World Events, Brown Political Review, December 9, 2014.

Think Tank Reports

Elanor Taylor, Policy Analysis Market and the Political Yuck Factor - why Americans shied away from a geopolitical futures market, Social Issues Research Centre, 27 April 2004


Helene Landemore, Democratic Reason: Politics, Collective Intelligence, and the Rule of the Many, pages 180,183, Princeton University Press, December 30, 2012.

Thomas Malone, The Future of Work, pages 95-97, Harvard Business School Press, February 17, 2004.

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, pages 75-83, Doubleday, May 25, 2004.

James Hughes, Citizen Cyborg: Why Democratic Societies Must Respond to the Redesigned Human of the Future, p.169-170, Westview Press, November 2004.

David Lyon, Theorizing Surveillance: The Panopticon And Beyond, Willan Pub, pp. 152-154, August 30, 2006.

Cass Sunstein, Infotopia - How Many Minds Produce Knowledge, pages 104-108, Oxford University Press, September 2006.

Len Ellis, Marketing in the In-Between: A Post-Modern Turn on Madison Avenue, pp. 101-105, BookSurge Publishing, January 11, 2007.

Bryan Caplan, The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies, pp. 190-192, Princeton University Press, April 2007.

Michael Abramowicz, Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision-Making, Yale University Press, New Haven, January 28, 2008.

Jeff Howe, Crowdsourcing, Why the Power of the Crowd is Driving the Future of Business, Crown Business, August 26, 2008.

Web Media

Stephen L. Carter, Preventing Terrorism Through Markets, Bloomberg View, November 20, 2015. Justin Lahart, Future imperfect - Lost in the fracas over the Defense Department's futures exchange: It might have worked., CNN/Money, July 29, 2003: 4:49 PM EDT. mirror

Noah Shachtman, The Case for Terrorism Futures, Wired News, 2:00am PT, July 30, 2003. mirror

Dan Gillmor, Terror 'Market' Not Totally Idiotic, SiliconValley.Com, 08:30AM, July 30, 2003. mirror

Steven Pearlstein, The Pentagon's Terrorism Futures Market, Washington Post, Live Online, Wednesday, July 30, 2003; 11:00am ET. mirror

Cynthia L. Webb, FutureMAP Has No Future,, July 30, 2003. mirror

Celeste Biever and Damian Carrington, Pentagon cancels futures market on terror, 1:17pm, July 30, 2003. mirror

Ronald Bailey, Betting On Terror - Why futures markets in terror and assassinations are a good idea, ReasonOnline, July 30, 2003. mirror

Jeremy Kahn, Is a Futures Market on Terror Outlandish? Maybe not. Fortune (online only), Wednesday, July 30, 2003. mirror

James Pethokoukis, Futures Shock, Tech Central Station, July 30, 2003. mirror

James Pethokoukis, Chief economist at Starfleet Command - The Big Ideas of Robin Hanson, US News and World Report (Web Exclusive) Next News, July 30, 2003. mirror

Dan Farber, Business intelligence worth betting on, ZDNet Tech Update, July 31, 2003. mirror

Steven Pearlstein, A plan to predict terror ABS-CBN Today, Friday, August 1, 2003 11:19:0 p.m. mirror

David Warsh, Tell It Slant,, August 3, 2003. mirror

Pentagon Scraps Information Market, The Lighthouse 5(31), August 4, 2003. mirror

Jackson Murphy, At Casino America: the house must win, Enter Stage Right, August 4, 2003.

Andrew Orlowski, Meet the 'transhumanists' behind the Pentagon terror casino, The Register, 11:01 GMT, August 5, 2003. mirror (also `I Married An Extropian' - reader, September 9, 2003. mirror )

Len Ellis, The Dawn of Information Markets, Part 1, The Global Agency, ClickZ Today, August 13, 2003. mirror

George Dvorsky, Progressive Ideas in Government? Don't Bet on It, BetterHumans, 10:12 AM, September 1, 2003.

Alex Tabarrok, In defense of prediction markets, Red Herring, September 23, 2003. mirror

Sam Dinkin, Suborbital graduation day, Space Review, October 11, 2004. mirror

Will Wilkinson, The Anti-Market Protocols of the Councillor of Zion, Tech Central Station, October 27, 2004. mirror

Sam Dinkin. Information aggregation markets and space development, Space Review (weekly), June 13, 2005. mirror

Peter Boettke and Alexander Tabarrok, The Secret of George Mason, Slate, 4:24 PM ET, March 28, 2006. mirror

Declan McCullagh, Tech lessons learned from the wisdom of crowds, CNET, 14:12:35 PST, December 14, 2006. mirror Alexander Hart, Hedging Your Bets on Current Event, ABC News, April 2, 2008. mirror

Elizabeth Dickinson, Future Perfect, Foreign Policy Web exclusive, posted October 2008.

R.J. Lehmann, Congress should help, not hinder, private terror insurance markets, R Street, April 17, 2014.

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