Performance Measures for GMU's Men's Basketball Team

some out of the ordinary measures --- beyond the simple things like shooting percentages, rebounds per game, assists per game, etc.

Updated after March 8 game

explanation of the use of color below

Values based on a small amount of playing time or a small number of attempts shouldn't be taken too seriously. (For example, while Harris made good use of his 4 minutes in the Jan. 4 game, hitting the only shot he tried (and it was a 3 point shot), and being credited with an assist, while making no mistakes that showed up in the box score, it's unreasonable to think that had he played 40 minutes he would have been a perfect 10 for 10 from 3 point land, and dished up 10 assists without commiting a turnover.) Note: The minutes per game for a player is determined by dividing the total number of minutes played by the player so far in the season by the number of games that the team has played, as opposed to dividing by the number of games in which the player has played. Doing it this way better reflects how much time the player has spent in games during the season.

Value (Sutton System) per 40 Minutes

Each player's value (really, the partial value which can be obtained from box score entries) is determined using the Sutton System (explanation given below), and then the value per 40 minutes is obtained by dividing the total value by the number of minutes played (to obtain value per minute), and then multiplying that number by 40.

March 8 game season
min Value/40min Player Value/40min min/game
29 4.1 Young 13.1 28.2
21 17.1 Lewis 11.9 22.4
39 12.8 Heinen 10.9 31.1
38 -2.1 Larranaga 10.8 35.7
31 -11.6 Davis 9.6 32.1
27 3.0 Tynes 7.3 21.5
11 0.0 Wurtz 4.4 14.8
1 0.0 Wyatt 4.2 6.9
1 0.0 Makings 4.0 1.8
1 0.0 Cooper 1.2 1.8
1 0.0 Harris -4.6 3.8

Only Lewis and Heinen had good games --- each achieved a Value/40min value for the tournament game greater than their season value.

Davis missed too many shots and made too few, which greatly hurt GMU's scoring efficiency.

Larranaga's value suffered a lot due to 5 turnovers.

Points per FGA

The table below gives the average number of points scored per field goal attempt for each player (i.e., the sum of 2 times the number of 2 point field goals and 3 times the number of 3 point field goals, divided by the total number of field goal attempts). Also shown is the number of field goal attempts per 40 minutes for each player.

March 8 game season
FGA/40min Points/FGA Player Points/FGA FGA/40min
0.0 ----- Cooper 1.33 2.4
7.6 1.50 Lewis 1.06 9.1
13.3 1.08 Heinen 1.04 9.4
0.0 ----- Wurtz 1.04 5.2
0.0 ----- Harris 1.00 1.9
0.0 ----- Makings 1.00 3.2
0.0 ----- Wyatt 0.91 4.6
5.5 0.50 Young 0.91 12.4
18.1 0.14 Davis 0.90 17.4
8.4 0.50 Larranaga 0.89 12.1
10.4 0.29 Tynes 0.77 8.8

The table below shows field goal percentages for each player's 2 point attempts and 3 point attempts. Values in gray fields are based on an average of less than 1 attempt per game for that type of shot, and shouldn't be taken so seriously.

field goal percentages
Player 2 point attempts 3 point attempts
Cooper 67% -----
Lewis 54% 0%
Heinen 51% 35%
Wurtz 50% 36%
Harris 33% 50%
Makings 50% -----
Wyatt 41% 40%
Young 47% 12%
Davis 44% 31%
Larranaga 44% 31%
Tynes 42% 17%

The table below shows the average points scored per field goal attempt for each player's 2 point attempts and 3 point attempts. Values in gray fields are based on an average of less than 1 attempt per game for that type of shot, and shouldn't be taken so seriously.

ave. points per field goal attempt
Player 2 point attempts 3 point attempts
Cooper 1.33 -----
Lewis 1.09 0.00
Heinen 1.03 1.06
Wurtz 1.00 1.09
Harris 0.67 1.50
Makings 1.00 -----
Wyatt 0.82 1.20
Young 0.95 0.35
Davis 0.89 0.92
Larranaga 0.88 0.94
Tynes 0.84 0.50

Points per FGA (adjusted for tendency to draw fouls)

On some teams, players who are good scoring threats tend to be fouled a lot in the act of shooting. When this happens, the fouled player gets to go to the free throw line and, if he is a decent free throw shooter, have a greater chance to make 2 points than if he took his field goal attempt in the course of regular play. I believe that this type of scoring should be taken into account when measuring each player's potential to score points.

Although not all foul shots occur two at a time due to a player being fouled in the act of going for a 2 point shot, in order to arrive at a relatively simple measure that reflects players' ability to draw fouls in the act of shooting, and to capitalize on their drawn fouls by hitting their free throws, I'm going to take the measure considered above (points per FG attempt), and augment the numerator by adding on points from free throws, and augment the denominator and adding on the number of free throw attempts, divided by 2. (Clearly, this measure isn't perfect. If a player makes a 3 point play by hitting a 2 point FG on which he was fouled, and then makes the free throw, he should get get 3 points in the numerator and 1 scoring attempt in the denominator, whereas this measure adds 1.5 scoring attempts in the denominator, and so the player is cheated a bit. However, I think it's the case here that an imperfect adjustment to reward a player for his ability to draw fouls is better than no adjustment at all --- generally, players who draw a lot of fouls will benefit from the adjustment (unless their free throw percentage is too low).)

I'll also count each pair of free throw attempts as a field goal attempt for the purpose of determining each player's number of scoring attempts per 40 minutes. It is hoped that this measure will be a good one for determining if the right players are attempting to score when GMU is on offense.

March 8 game season
Scoring Att. per 40 min. Adj. Points per Att. Player Adj. Points per Att. Scoring Att. per 40 min.
0.0 ----- Cooper 1.14 2.8
14.4 1.14 Heinen 1.13 11.2
9.5 1.60 Lewis 1.06 11.2
0.0 ----- Wurtz 1.03 6.2
10.3 1.07 Young 1.01 15.1
12.5 0.80 Larranaga 1.01 14.6
0.0 ----- Harris 1.00 2.7
20.6 0.31 Davis 0.95 20.4
0.0 ----- Makings 0.91 4.4
0.0 ----- Wyatt 0.88 6.7
10.4 0.29 Tynes 0.82 9.7

After 14 games this season, Davis was averaging 1.03 points per field goal attempt, and also 1.03 points per scoring attempt. During the second 14 games, he wasn't nearly as efficient, and GMU suffered when he had a lot of attempts and didn't produce many points.

Rebounds per 40 Minutes

The values in the table below were obtained by dividing each player's total number of rebounds by his total number of minutes played, to get rebounds per minute, and then multiplying that number by 40.

March 8 game season
min RB/40min Player RB/40min min/game
29 11.0 Young 11.2 28.2
21 7.6 Lewis 9.9 22.4
1 0.0 Makings 8.0 1.8
27 8.9 Tynes 7.4 21.5
1 0.0 Cooper 6.4 1.8
11 10.9 Wurtz 5.5 14.8
1 0.0 Wyatt 5.4 6.9
38 3.2 Larranaga 5.2 35.7
31 6.5 Davis 4.9 32.1
39 4.1 Heinen 4.0 31.1
1 0.0 Harris 1.5 3.8

This is a link to a page pertaining to GMU's performance against UNC-W.
This is a link to a page pertaining to UNC-W's performance against GMU.
This is a link to a page pertaining to GMU's performance against Delaware.
This is a link to a page pertaining to Delaware's performance against GMU.
This is a link to some corresponding results from the 2001-2002 season.
This is a link to some corresponding results for the women's team.

partial explanation of the Sutton value system

Applying the Sutton value system results in a partial measure of a player's overall value to the team based on data obtained from box scores, and so not including defensive contributions other than steals and rebounds. To obtain each player's overall value for his time on the court during the game, one starts with a value of 0, and then adds 2 points for each 2 point field goal (FG), 1 point for each rebound (RB), subtracts a point for each missed field goal (MFG), subtracts 2 points for each turnover (TO), and so on, using the point values indicated in the table below.

value
three point field goal (TR) 4
two point field goal (FG) 2
missed field goal (MFG) -1
rebound (RB) 1
turnover (TO) -2
steal (S) 2
free throw (FT) 1
missed free throw (MFT) -0.5
foul (F) -1
assist (A) 1
block (BLK) 0.5

Although at first it may seem very odd to give a value of 4 to a 3 point field goal, while only giving a value of 2 to a 2 point field goal, be assured that there is a reason for this. A short explanation can be found here, and for a fuller explanation, one should go here.