TM 4: Current and Long-Range Planning

Overview

There are three common mistakes in telecommunication planning. The first one is letting the system go with no visible plan. The second one is not reviewing the plan to be sure it is still in the right direction, and not finding out whether the plan delivered its promises is the third mistake. Verifying actual results to find out whether they are achieved is the essential part of the planning process. This chapter clears up the current and long-range planning to avoid those mistakes.

Terminology

·         Problems – the dissatisfied performance as it exists now

·         Objectives –the situation as it will exist when the problem has been solved

·         Mandatory objectives – the conditions that an alternative must satisfy in order to be acceptable

·         Desirable objectives – the conditions that wish to have the alternative to satisfy, but that not disqualify the alternative if they are absent

Current vs. Strategic Planning

Overview of the Problem-Solving Process

Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe. The Rational Manger. (1965) – A bible on problem solving .

Problem Solving Process

·         Finding deviations from the level of desired performance and labeling them as problems
·         Refining the problem until the nature of the problem and its causes are clearly understood.
·         Developing objectives (goals)
·         Categorizing objectives as mandatory and desirable
·         Developing alternatives and screening them
·         Select the best solution and implementing the plan
·         Reviewing the results to ensure that expectations are being realized

The Kepner-Tregoe Process (The Problem-Solving Loop)

The Telecommunications System Planning Process

Initial Scan

To determine the source of any dissatisfaction with existing services, start with a description of the present situation. interviewing with key people and an initial scanning of documents could point to deficiencies. The sources of information to be evaluated include the following:
·         Bills from LEC, common carrier, and vendor
·         Review of existing equipment and network architecture
·         Trouble history records
·         Data transmission transaction and volume records
·         Strategic plans and its objectives
·         Higher management and end-user objectives

Forecasting

·         The starting point of any telecommunications design is a forecast of applications and requirements for any variables, initially and through the life of the system.

·         The forecast serves as a coarse screen for filtering out alternatives that will not support requirements for the expected life of the system.

·         An analysis of historical trends is a good point to start a forecast unless the trends are not assumed to be continued into the future.

Identifying Problems and Developing Objectives

·         It is just as important to know what a problem is not as to know what it is (Kepner and Tregoe).

·         Be cautious of being trapped by the easiest solution when the cause is not verified.

·         Problems should be stated in numerical terms if possible to make objectives feasible.

·         Objectives should be separated into mandatory and desirable categories to settle the order of priority.

Developing Alternatives

·         Develop alternatives when no obvious solution is in sight.

·         “Brainstorming”, in which people throw out ideas and the ideas to be evaluated until later, is a good way to unleash creativity and develop alternatives.

·         Evaluate alternatives by comparing them to objectives. Weight the alternatives scored higher by the desirable objectives

·         The best alternative should be documented and be discussed by everyone who has a stake in the outcome.

·         Present the plan with clear objectives by indicating specific techniques.

·         Avoid the easy fix!

Fundamental Planning

Planning Process

·         A complete understanding of business and strategic plans, organizational objectives, and problems
·         Develop alternatives and test them against the objectives to determine how well they meet the mandatory features
·         Determine which alternative offers the best economic and technical performance
·         Choose a plan
·         Document the plan
·         Obtain approvals from authorities

Factors to be considered to review business plans:
·         Plans for major organizational changes
·         Personal growth and relocation or outsourcing plans
·         Sales and earnings forecasts
·         Planned acquisitions and divestitures
·         Management’s stance toward accepting or avoiding risks
·         Required rate of return for capital investments

Objectives to be evaluated to review business plans

·         Cost versus service levels
·         Features of existing telecommunications equipment and user requests for new or enhanced features
·         Cost control methods
·         Ownership versus lease versus outsourcing
·         Timing of key events that trigger the need for planning
·         The interaction of the company’s voice and data networks

Documenting and Presenting the Plan

Points to Follow for Easy Reading

·         Executive summary
·         Recommendations
·         Section titles to look for major points
·         Table of contents to facilitates a quick scan
·         Figures and illustrations
·         Backup information only when it is necessary to justify the conclusions.

Allow an approving authority to accept the report with no more than a signature.

Points to Follow for Sufficient Details

A plan well documented should have little difficulty in gaining higher management approval.

·         The reason that the project is needed
·         Studied alternative if necessary to describe the reason that the final alternative is selected
·         The support of using organization
·         Budget availability
·         Financial analysis
·           Financial indicators such as net present value, internal rate of return, and payback period for each alternative studied.
·           The financial results tested for sensitivity to uncertain factors
·           Any technological differences in alternatives to acquaint authorities
·           Any risks that higher management may be taking
·           A fallback position and a discussion of the benefits of taking greater than normal risks.
·           Explanation how the recommended alternative fits into the company’s future application of other advanced technologies.
·           Testing and troubleshooting methods
·         A broad outline of implementation plan (i.e. the cost, service impact of implementation, major activities, a person in charge, required resources, a recommended timetable of events, etc.)

Current Planning Techniques

Current planning acquires the necessary services and equipment to execute the long-range, or strategic, plans.

The Demand and Facilities (D & F) Chart

·         A very useful tool in current planning for visually displaying how capacity compares to present and future demand.
·         Capacity is displayed as a stair-stepped solid line that shows graphically the amount of facilities available and planned in the future.
·         The demand line shows facilities used in the past and forecast in the future.
·         The degree to which the capacity line exceeds the demand line is an indication of spare capacity.
·         The growth increment of the system being tracked determines how much increase in capacity is obtained by each growth job.
·         D&F chart should be maintained on critical facilities and equipment in the telecommunications system.
·         It is essential to post actual results to the chart periodically.

Summary

A plan and its objectives can be understood only after you understand the nature of the problem. The most effective planning process starts with an analysis of underlying problems and their causes.