CLIM 751 Predictability of Weather and Climate

Fall 2010

Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences

George Mason University

 

Instructors: V. Krishnamurthy, David Straus and J. Shukla

Time: Thursday; 10:30 AM – 1:15 PM

Classroom: Room 338, Innovation Hall, GMU Fairfax Campus

Credits: 3

 

Course Description: This course covers the fundamental aspects of the predictability of weather and climate.  Basic theory of the divergence of trajectories in phase space and the periodic and chaotic properties of the flow are illustrated using simple nonlinear dynamical models.  The dynamics of error growth, local and global predictability, and predictability of flows with many scales will be discussed. Paradigms of turbulence and optimal linear growth to describe fundamental error growth mechanisms are explored.  The predictability and error growth in large weather forecasting systems, predictability in mid-latitudes and tropics will be studied.  Predictability of time-mean quantities in large climate models, the role of boundary forcings, and predictability of coupled models, ENSO models and decadal modulation of predictability will be covered.

           

Syllabus

 

References

 

Lecture Notes

Sep 2               Overview of predictability of weather and climate (pdf)

Sep 2               Introduction to prediction and predictability (pdf)

Sep 9               Predictability and introduction to chaos (pdf)

Sep 16             Chaos (pdf)

Sep 23             Dynamical systems (pdf)

Sep 30             Instabilities in dynamical systems (pdf)

Oct 7               Dynamics of error growth (pdf)

Oct 14             Intro_2dturb (pdf), Many_Scales_Lorenz_part1 (pdf), Many_Scales_Lorenz_part2 (pdf)

Oct 21 & 28    Linear_Nonlinear_Part1 (pdf), Linear_Nonlinear_Part2 (pdf), Linear_Nonlinear_Part3 (pdf), Energy_inner_product (pdf)

Oct 28             Lorenz_Simmons_ECMWF (pdf)

Nov 4              Weather_Predict_Tellus (pdf)

Nov 11            Climate_Predict1 (pdf), Climate_Predict2 (pdf), Climate_Predict3 (pdf), Climate_Predict_EOF (pdf)

Nov 18            ENSO chaos and predictability (pdf)

Dec 2               Decadal predictability and climate change (pdf)

 

Problem Sets

Problem Set 1 (pdf)

Problem Set 2 (pdf)

Problem Set 3 (pdf)

Problem Set 4 (pdf)

Problem Set 5 (pdf)

Problem Set 6 (pdf)

 

Project (pdf)