Tim DelSole's Refereed Publications

Yang, X., A. Rosati, S. Zhang, T. L. Delworth, R. G. Gudgl, R. Zhang, G. Vecchi, W. Anderson, Y.-S. Chang, T. DelSole, K. Dixon, R. Msadek, W. F. Stern, A. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, 2012: A predictable AMO-like pattern in GFDL's fully-coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system. J. Climate, submitted. [PDF]

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2012: Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. [PDF]

Guo, Z., P. A. Dirmeyer, and T. DelSole, 2012: Land Surface Impacts on Subseasonal and Seasonal Predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL049945. [PDF]

Jia, L, and T. DelSole, 2012: Optimal Determination of Time-Varying Climate Change Signals. J. Climate, submitted. [PDF]

Feng, X., T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2012: Methods for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictabilty. Part I: Analysis of Covariance. J. Climate, in press. [PDF]

Feng, X., T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2012: Comparison of Observational Estimates of Potential Seasonal Predictability. J. Climate, submitted. [PDF]

DelSole, T., and X. Feng, 2012: The “Shukla-Gutzler” Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted. [PDF]

DelSole, T., X. Yang, and M. K. Tippett, 2012: Is Unequal Weighting Significantly Better than Equal Weighting for Multi-Model Forecasting? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)

Yang, X., and T. DelSole, 2012: Systematic Comparison of ENSO Teleconnection Patterns Between Models and Observations. J. Climate, 25, 425-446. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)

Jia, L., and T. DelSole, 2011: Diagnosis of Multi-year Predictability on Continental Scales. J. Climate, 24, 5108-5124. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2011: State and Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Dynamical Models. ECMWF Proceedings, Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models. [PDF]

Yilmaz, M. T., T. DelSole, and P. R. Houser, 2011: Reducing water balance residuals in land data assimilation: Ensemble filtering without perturbed observations. J. Hydrometeor., 13,, 413-420. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)

DelSole, T., and X. Yang, 2011: Field Significance of Regression Patterns. J. Climate, 24, 5094-5107. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Yilmaz, M. T., T. DelSole, and P. R. Houser, 2011: Improving Land Data Assimilation Performance with a Water Budget Constraint. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 1040-1055. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Feng, X., T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2011: Bootstrap Estimated Seasonal Potential Predictability of Global Temperature and Precipitation. Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L07702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046511.

DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming. J. Climate, 24, 909-926. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

P. A. Dirmeyer, T. DelSole, and M. Zhao, 2011: Limits to the Impact of Empirical Correction on Simulation of the Water Cycle,” J. Hydrometeor., 12, 147-156.

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model Fidelity Versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting. J. Climate, 23, 4794-4806. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and T. DelSole, 2010: Comments on “Finite samples and uncertainty estimates for skill measures for seasonal prediction.” Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1487-1493. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Yilmaz, M. T., and T. DelSole, 2010: Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 533-541. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and X. Yang, 2010: State and Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Dynamical Models. Physica D, 239, 1781-1788. [PDF]

Yang, X., and T. DelSole, 2009: The Diffuse Ensemble Square Root Filter, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 16, 475-486. [PDF]

Yang, X., and T. DelSole, 2009: Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to Estimate Multiplicative Model Parameters. Tellus, 61, 601-609. [PDF]

Narapusetty, B., T. DelSole and M. K. Tippett, 2009: Optimal Estimation of the Climatological Mean. J. Climate, 22, 4845-4859. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2009: Average Predictability Time. Part I: Theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1172-1187. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2009: Average Predictability Time. Part II: Seamless Diagnosis of Predictability on Multiple Time Scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1172-1187. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., M. Zhao, and P. Dirmeyer, 2009: A New Method for Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Dynamics. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 1040-1050. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2009: Challenges in Stochastic Modeling of Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. In Stochastic Physics and Climate Modeling. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Dirmeyer, P. A., K. L. Brubaker, and T. DelSole, 2009: Import and Export of Atmospheric Water Vapor Between Nations. Journal of Hydrology, 365, 11-22. [PDF]

Monahan, A. H., and T. DelSole, 2009: Information theoretic measures of dependence, compactness, and non-Gaussianity. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 16, 57-64. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2009: Artificial Skill Due to Predictor Screening. J. Climate, 22, 331-345. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Yang, X., T. DelSole, and H.-L. Pan, 2008: Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5224-5233. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Tippett, M. K., T. DelSole, S. J. Mason, A. G. Barnston, 2008: Regression-based methods for finding coupled patterns. J. Climate, 21, 4384-4398. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., M. Zhao, P. A. Dirmeyer, B. P. Kirtman, 2008: Empirical correction of a coupled land-atmosphere model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4063-4076. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2008: Predictable Components and Singular Vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1666-1678. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2007: Predictability: Recent Insights from Information Theory. Rev. Geophys., 45, RG4002, doi:10.1029/2006RG000202. [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2007: A Bayesian Framework for Multimodel Regression. J. Climate, 20, 2810-2826. (AMS Copyright notice) (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Vikhliaev, Y., P. Schopf, T. DelSole, and B. Kirtman, 2007: Finding multiple basin modes in a linear ocean model. J. Atmos. Ocean Tech., 24, 1033-1049. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2007: Optimal Perturbations in Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1350-1364. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Linear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall in Indian Subdivisions. COLA Tech. Rep. 208. [PDF]

Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07702, doi:10.1029/2005GL025579. [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2006: Low-Frequency Variations of Surface Temperature in Observations and Simulations. J. Climate, 19, 4487-4507. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Correction Note on “Linear Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall.” J. Climate, 19, 3029-3030. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Specification of Wintertime North Temperature. J. Climate, 19, 2691-2716. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2005: Predictability and Information Theory. Part II: Imperfect Forecasts. J. Atmos Sci., 62, 3368-3381. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2004: Stochastic Models of Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. Surveys in Geophys., 25 (2), 107-149. [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2004: Predictability and Information Theory. Part I: Measures of Predictability. J. Atmos Sci., 61, 2425-2440. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2004: The Necessity of Instantaneous Optimals in Stationary Turbulence. J. Atmos Sci., 61, 1086-1091. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

Chang, P., R. Saravanan, T. DelSole, F. Wang, 2004: Predictability of Linear Coupled Systems. Part I: Theoretical Analysis. J. Climate, 17, 1474-1486. (AMS Copyright notice)

DelSole, T., and P. Chang, 2003: Predictable component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and autoregressive models. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 409-416. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2002: Linear Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall. J. Climate, 15, 3645-3658. (COLA Technical Report 114.) (Figures and Tables printed separately.) (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]

DelSole, T., 2001: A Theory for the Forcing and Dissipation in Stochastic Turbulence Models, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3762-3775.

DelSole, T., 2001: Optimally Persistent Patterns in Time-Varying Fields. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1341-1356.

DelSole, T., 2001: A Simple Model for Transient Eddy Momentum Fluxes in the Upper Troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3019-3035.

DelSole, T., 2000: A Fundamental Limitation of Markov Models. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2158-2168.

DelSole, T., 1999: Stochastic Models of Shear Flow Turbulence with Enstrophy Transfer to Subgrid-Scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2692-3703.

DelSole, T., and A. Y. Hou, 1999: Empirical Stochastic Models for the Dominant Climate Statistics of a General Circulation Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3436-3456.

DelSole, T., and A. Y. Hou, 1999: Empirical Correction of a Dynamical Model. Part I: Fundamental Issues. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2533-2545.

DelSole, T., 1997: Absolute Instability Induced by Dissipation. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2586-2595.

DelSole, T., 1996: Can Quasigeostrophic Turbulence be Modeled Stochastically? J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1617-1633.

DelSole, T., and B. F. Farrell, 1996: The Quasilinear Equilibration of a Thermally Maintained, Stochastically Excited Jet in a Quasigeostrophic Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1782-1797.

DelSole, T., and B. F. Farrell, 1995: A Stochastically Excited Linear System as a Model for Quasigeostrophic Turbulence: Analytic Results for One- and Two-Layer Fluids. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2531-2537.

DelSole, T., and B. F. Farrell, 1994: Nonlinear Equilibration of Localized Instabilities on a Baroclinic Jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2270-2284.

Bernholc, J., A. Antonelli, T. M. DelSole, Y. Bar-Yam, and S. T. Pantelides, 1988: Mechanisms of Self-Diffusion in Diamond. Phys. Rev. Let., 61, 2689-2692.