; breeds [race_one race_two]

globals [
time
Total_Healthy Total_Normal Total_Unhealthy Total_Kids Total_Adults
Percent_Healthy Percent_Normal Percent_Unhealthy Percent_Kids      
Total_Healthy_One Total_Normal_One Total_Unhealthy_One
Total_Healthy_Two Total_Normal_Two Total_Unhealthy_Two
Total_Healthy_Three Total_Normal_Three Total_Unhealthy_Three
Percent_Healthy_One Percent_Normal_One Percent_Unhealthy_One
Percent_Healthy_Two Percent_Normal_Two Percent_Unhealthy_Two
Percent_Healthy_Three Percent_Normal_Three Percent_Unhealthy_Three
number
default ; patch color default
youngshade oldshade
mean_age mean_expected_life mean_lifespan
shock_all? shock_1? shock_2? shock_3? shock_4?

region_1_healthy region_1_Normal region_1_unhealthy region_1_kids 
region_2_healthy region_2_Normal region_2_unhealthy region_2_kids 
region_3_healthy region_3_Normal region_3_unhealthy region_3_kids 
region_4_healthy region_4_Normal region_4_unhealthy region_4_kids 

region_1_total region_2_total region_3_total region_4_total

mean_expected_life1 mean_expected_life2 mean_expected_life3 mean_expected_life4
mean_lifespan1 mean_lifespan2 mean_lifespan3 mean_lifespan4
        ]      

turtles-own [ 
age
generation
status
income
random_death
Expected_Life
region_id

Exp_Utility_Healthy
Exp_Utility_Normal
Exp_Utility_Unhealthy 
lifestyle

          ]
            
patches-own [hood_lifespan death_total sum_death_age border? no_data? ]


to setup
  ca
  set-default-shape turtles "med_circle"
  set number ((density / 100) * count patches)
  regions
  ask random-n-of (number) patches with [border? = false]
    [ sprout 1 [ set status 65 set color status set age random 60 set generation 1 ] ]
  ask turtles [ ifelse age < 16 [set lifestyle 0][set lifestyle 2 set status 105 set color status] region-id]
  set time 0
  set shock_all? false set shock_1? false set shock_2? false set shock_3? false set shock_4? false   
  set mean_lifespan1 0 set mean_lifespan2 0 set mean_lifespan3 0 set mean_lifespan4 0
end

to regions

ask patches [
set border? false
if N-Regions = 2 [ if pycor = 0 [set pcolor 9.9999 set border? true]]
if N-Regions = 3 [ if pycor = 0 or (pycor < 1 and pxcor = 0) [set pcolor 9.9999 set border? true]]
if N-Regions = 4 [if pycor = 0 or pxcor = 0 [set pcolor 9.9999 set border? true]]
            ]               
end

to go
  set time time + 1
  ask turtles [without-interruption [

    wander
    region-id
    reproduce
                                    ]]
  ask patches [ update-patches ]

  ask turtles [without-interruption [

    kids-grow-old
    Healthy-grow-old
    Normal-grow-old
    Unhealthy-grow-old
    
                  ]]
  do-plots
  stats
  regional_stats
  regional-mean-life
  shock
  if count turtles = 0
    [ stop ]
end

to region-id

  if xcor > 0 and ycor > 0 [set region_id 1]
  if xcor < 0 and ycor > 0 [set region_id 2]
  if xcor < 0 and ycor < 0 [set region_id 3]
  if xcor > 0 and ycor < 0 [set region_id 4]
                     
end

to kids-grow-old
  if lifestyle = 0 [
  set age age + 1
  ;;choose - shading or no shading
  ;; set color scale-color status age oldshade youngshade
  set color status
  ;set expected_life mean values-from neighbors with [border? = false] [hood_lifespan]
  ifelse (count neighbors with [border? = false and no_data? = false] > 0)
          [set expected_life mean values-from neighbors with [border? = false and no_data? = false ] [hood_lifespan]]
             [set expected_life def_life_exp]

  set random_death random 1000
  if ( Random_Death < (10 * Probability_Death_Kid + 1) )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die]

  if age = 16 [ 
     choose-lifestyle
     ifelse sum values-from neighbors [count turtles-here with [lifestyle > 0]] < count neighbors with [border? = false] [go-if-empty-nearby][go-if-empty]
              ]
                    ]
end

to Healthy-grow-old
 if lifestyle = 1 [
  set age age + 1
  ;;choose - shading or no shading
  ;; set color scale-color status age oldshade youngshade
  set color status
  set random_death random 1000
  if (age < 50) and ( Random_Death < 10 * Probability_Death_Healthy )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die ]
  if (age > 50) and (age < 90) and ( Random_Death < (20 + 10 * Probability_Death_Healthy) )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die]
  if (age = 90 or age > 90)
          [ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]
  set expected_life mean values-from neighbors [hood_lifespan]
  
                         ]
end

to Normal-grow-old
 if lifestyle = 2 [
  set age age + 1
  ;;choose - shading or no shading
  ;; set color scale-color status age oldshade youngshade
  set color status
  set random_death random 1000
  if (age < 50) and ( Random_Death < 10 * Probability_Death_Normal )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die ]
  if (age > 50) and (age < 90) and ( Random_Death < (20 + 10 * Probability_Death_Normal) )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die ]
  if (age = 90 or age > 90)
          [ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]
  
  
                  ]
end

to Unhealthy-grow-old
 
 if lifestyle = 3 [
  set age age + 1
  ;;choose - shading or no shading
  ;; set color scale-color status age oldshade youngshade
  set color status
  set random_death random 1000
  if (age < 50) and ( Random_Death < 10 * Probability_Death_Unhealthy )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die ]
  if (age > 50) and (age < 90) and ( Random_Death < (20 + 10 * Probability_Death_Unhealthy) )[ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age die ]
  if (age = 90 or age > 90)
          [ set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]
  
  
                     ]
end


to wander
locals [random_movement]

set random_movement random 100
if random_movement < movement [
  go-if-empty
                              ]
end

to reproduce
 
  if (age > 16 and age < 45 and random 1000 < repro_rate) [
    hatch 1 [
          set age 0 set generation generation + 1 set lifestyle 0 set status 65
          set color status 
       ;; ifelse sum values-from neighbors [count turtles-here] < 8 [go-if-empty-nearby][go-if-empty]
            ]
                                              ]
end

to go-if-empty  ;; turtle procedure
  locals [empty-patches target]
  without-interruption
    [ set empty-patches patches with [not any? turtles-here and border? = false]
      if any? empty-patches
        [ set target random-one-of empty-patches
          set heading towards target
          fd distance target ] 
    region-id
    ]
end

to go-if-empty-nearby  ;; turtle procedure
  locals [empty-patches target]
  without-interruption
    [ set empty-patches neighbors with [not any? turtles-here and border? = false]
      if any? empty-patches
        [ set target random-one-of empty-patches
          set heading towards target
          fd distance target ] 
    region-id
    ]
end

to choose-lifestyle

;set Exp_Utility_Healthy (((Expected_Life ) * b_healthy ) + a_healthy)
;set Exp_Utility_Normal (((Expected_Life ) * b_normal ) + a_normal)
;set Exp_Utility_Unhealthy (((Expected_Life ) * b_unhealthy ) + a_unhealthy)

ifelse discounting? = false 
    [ set Exp_Utility_Healthy (((Expected_Life - 16) *  b_healthy) + a_healthy)
      set Exp_Utility_Normal (((Expected_Life - 16) * b_normal) + a_normal) 
      set Exp_Utility_Unhealthy (((Expected_Life - 16) * b_unhealthy) + a_unhealthy)
    ]
    [ set Exp_Utility_Healthy (a_healthy + ((b_healthy * (1 - exp(- rate * (Expected_Life - 16 )))) / (exp(rate) - 1)))
      set Exp_Utility_Normal (a_normal + ((b_normal * (1 - exp(- rate * (Expected_Life - 16)))) / (exp(rate) - 1)))   
      set Exp_Utility_Unhealthy (a_unhealthy + ((b_unhealthy * (1 - exp(- rate * (Expected_Life - 16)))) / (exp(rate) - 1)))
    ]

ifelse (Exp_Utility_Healthy >= Exp_Utility_Normal) and (Exp_Utility_Healthy >= Exp_Utility_Unhealthy and Healthy_Option = true)
       [set lifestyle 1 set status 89]
       [ ifelse (Exp_Utility_Normal >= Exp_Utility_Unhealthy ) [set lifestyle 2 set status 105][ set lifestyle 3 set status 26]]    

end

to update-patches
set no_data? false 
ifelse death_total > 0 [set hood_lifespan (sum_death_age / death_total)] [set no_data? true set hood_lifespan mean_expected_life]


end

to shock

if timedshock1 = true and time > 39 and time < 50 [set shock_1? true]

if shock_all? [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles 
              [ set shock_all? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]

if shock_1? [ ifelse N-regions = 2 or N-regions = 3 [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor > 0]
              [ set shock_1? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
                                                   [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor > 0 and xcor > 0]
              [ set shock_1? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
            ]
if shock_2?  [ ifelse N-regions = 2 or N-regions = 3 [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor < 0]
              [ set shock_2? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
                                                    [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor > 0 and xcor < 0]
              [ set shock_2? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
            ]
if shock_3?  [ ifelse N-regions = 3 [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor < 0 and xcor > 0]
              [ set shock_3? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
                                   [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor < 0 and xcor < 0]
              [ set shock_3? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
            ]
if shock_4?  [ if N-regions = 4 [ ask random-n-of shock_size turtles with [ycor < 0 and xcor > 0]
              [ set shock_4? false set death_total death_total + 1 set sum_death_age sum_death_age + age set pcolor default die ]  ]
            ]                                                                       
end


to regional_stats

set region_1_kids count turtles with [lifestyle = 0 and region_id = 1] 
set region_1_healthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 1 and region_id = 1]
set region_1_Normal count turtles with [lifestyle = 2 and region_id = 1]
set region_1_unhealthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 3 and region_id = 1]
set mean_expected_life1 mean values-from turtles with [region_id = 1] [expected_life]

set region_2_kids count turtles with [lifestyle = 0 and region_id = 2] 
set region_2_healthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 1 and region_id = 2]
set region_2_Normal count turtles with [lifestyle = 2 and region_id = 2]
set region_2_unhealthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 3 and region_id = 2]
set mean_expected_life2 mean values-from turtles with [region_id = 2] [expected_life]

set region_3_kids count turtles with [lifestyle = 0 and region_id = 3] 
set region_3_healthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 1 and region_id = 3]
set region_3_Normal count turtles with [lifestyle = 2 and region_id = 3]
set region_3_unhealthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 3 and region_id = 3]
set mean_expected_life3 mean values-from turtles with [region_id = 3] [expected_life]

set region_4_kids count turtles with [lifestyle = 0 and region_id = 4] 
set region_4_healthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 1 and region_id = 4]
set region_4_Normal count turtles with [lifestyle = 2 and region_id = 4]
set region_4_unhealthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 3 and region_id = 4]
set mean_expected_life4 mean values-from turtles with [region_id = 4] [expected_life]

set region_1_total count turtles with [region_id = 1]
set region_2_total count turtles with [region_id = 2]
set region_3_total count turtles with [region_id = 3]
set region_4_total count turtles with [region_id = 4]

end

to regional-mean-life

if time > 20 [

set mean_lifespan1 (sum values-from patches with [pxcor > 0 and pycor > 0] [sum_death_age] / sum values-from patches with [pxcor > 0 and pycor > 0] [death_total])
set mean_lifespan2 (sum values-from patches with [pxcor < 0 and pycor > 0] [sum_death_age] / sum values-from patches with [pxcor < 0 and pycor > 0] [death_total])
set mean_lifespan3 (sum values-from patches with [pxcor < 0 and pycor < 0] [sum_death_age] / sum values-from patches with [pxcor < 0 and pycor < 0] [death_total])
set mean_lifespan4 (sum values-from patches with [pxcor > 0 and pycor < 0] [sum_death_age] / sum values-from patches with [pxcor > 0 and pycor < 0] [death_total])

]

end


to stats

ifelse time > 2 [
set mean_age mean values-from turtles [age]
set mean_expected_life mean values-from turtles [expected_life]
            ] [set mean_expected_life def_life_exp]
if time > 20 [set mean_lifespan (sum values-from patches [sum_death_age] / sum values-from patches [death_total])] 
             
set Total_Healthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 1]
set Total_Normal count turtles with [lifestyle = 2]
set Total_Unhealthy count turtles with [lifestyle = 3]
set Total_Kids count turtles with [lifestyle = 0]
set Total_Adults count turtles with [lifestyle > 0]
             
set percent_kids (Total_Kids / count turtles) set percent_healthy (Total_healthy / Total_Adults)
set percent_normal (Total_normal / Total_Adults) set percent_unhealthy (Total_unhealthy / Total_Adults)
             
end

to do-plots
 
  set-current-plot "Mean Lifespan and Expected Lifespan"
      set-current-plot-pen "Mean Lifespan"
      plot mean_lifespan
      set-current-plot-pen "Expected Lifespan"
      plot mean_expected_life
  set-current-plot "Unhealthy"
      set-current-plot-pen "Unhealthy 1"
      plot region_1_unhealthy 
      set-current-plot-pen "Unhealthy 2"
      plot region_2_unhealthy
      set-current-plot-pen "Unhealthy 3"
      plot region_3_unhealthy 
      set-current-plot-pen "Unhealthy 4"
      plot region_4_unhealthy  
      
 end
@#$#@#$#@
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CC-WINDOW
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Command Center

BUTTON
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Setup
setup
NIL
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OBSERVER
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MONITOR
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total population
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BUTTON
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Go/Pause
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OBSERVER
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SLIDER
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Probability_Death_Healthy
Probability_Death_Healthy
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SLIDER
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density
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MONITOR
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time
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SLIDER
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Probability_Death_Normal
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SLIDER
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Probability_Death_Unhealthy
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SLIDER
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SLIDER
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TEXTBOX
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Births per 1000

TEXTBOX
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Default expected lifespan

TEXTBOX
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Prct. of Pop. that moves each turn

TEXTBOX
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Prct. of patches that start with an agent

SLIDER
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N-Regions
N-Regions
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NIL

BUTTON
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Shock all
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NIL
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OBSERVER
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BUTTON
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shock 1
set Shock_1? true\n
NIL
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OBSERVER
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NIL

BUTTON
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shock 2
set shock_2? true
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OBSERVER
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BUTTON
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shock 3
set shock_3? true
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OBSERVER
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BUTTON
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shock 4
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OBSERVER
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SLIDER
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shock_size
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SLIDER
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a_healthy
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SLIDER
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b_healthy
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SLIDER
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a_normal
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a_unhealthy
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b_unhealthy
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PLOT
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Mean Lifespan and Expected Lifespan
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PENS
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TEXTBOX
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Number of Regions

SWITCH
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timedshock1
timedshock1
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SLIDER
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Probability_Death_Kid
Probability_Death_Kid
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SLIDER
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rate
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SWITCH
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Discounting?
Discounting?
0
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TEXTBOX
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157
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Discount rate used by agents\n

PLOT
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864
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Unhealthy
NIL
NIL
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0.0
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PENS
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"Unhealthy 2" 1.0 0 -16711681 true
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"Unhealthy 4" 1.0 0 -8716033 true

SWITCH
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Healthy_Option
Healthy_Option
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@#$#@#$#@
RUSSIAN MORBIDITY MODEL

THE STORY

Within the world constructed the observer (you) has the ability to create a population of agents that will be born, grow up, choose a lifestyle, reproduce, and eventually die. The major areas of concern are the expected and experienced mortality rates, the population breakdown of lifestyles chosen, and the growth/decay rate of the population in large. 


GETTING STARTED

Starting in the upper left-hand corner of the interface, you are presented with a the option to SETUP and GO/PAUSE. When you are ready to begin, you simply hit SETUP to populate the board and GO/PAUSE to initiate the simulation. The simulation may be paused (and subsequently restarted) at anytime by hitting GO/PAUSE.

Before you populate the board there are a series of sliders which are in fact parameters thate dictate setup and control the underlying reality of the model. All sliders are in turquoise.

The upper left sliders are all setup related (and are labelled accordingly). In the upper right are the sliders which control the coefficents of the agent objective function, and below them the sliders which control the probabilities that govern life and death in the model. Adjacent the the PROBABILITY_DEATH_HEALTHY slider is a switch which allows the user to control whether agents can choose a healthy lifestyle.

HOW THE SIMULATION IS PLAYED OUT

Agents are born and up until age 16 they simply move around. At age 16 they choose their lifestyle based on an expected utility comparison.

E(U) = a + b(expected_lifespan)

The keys to the equations are the user assigned coefficients for each lifestyle choice and the age at which he expects to die. These expectations are determined by the 8 neighboring patches that surround him. Each patch keeps a record of the average age of death of past occupants. In sum, the agent's neighborhood is his source of information in forming his expectations. This is the primary means by which agent rationality is bounded, coupled with agents' ingnorance of the underlying probablities. 

When an agent is born he lives on the same patch as his parent agent. When the "kid" turns 16 he chooses a lifestyle and then tries to move to a neighboring patch. If all of the neighboring patches are full he then moves to a random available patch.

Agents may also move in their adult years, randomly chosen at a rate determined by the MOVEMENT slider.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

N-REGIONS allows the user to break the board into 2, 3, or 4 sections. No matter the number of regions each agent carries a region_id tag that identifies where in the standard cartestian plane he exists at any moment. For example, even if there are only two regions, an agent in the lower left corner would have a region_id = 3. 

SHOCKS are critical to running experiments on the model. Regional shocks and total poplation shocks can be applied, where the SHOCK_SIZE slider will control the absolute number of agents who will die, chosen randome within the region indicated. Region numbers are assigned counter clockwise starting from the upper right. For example, if N-REGIONS = 3, then the large region on top is 1, the lower left is 2, and the lower right is region 3.

There exists along the bottom a variety of graphs and monitors that are self-explanatory. 

CONCLUSION

You have been fully indoctrinated. Now go experiment with the model and write a bunch of papers. 
@#$#@#$#@
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@#$#@#$#@
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