This problem is a variant of the famous
Ellsburg paradox. Studies have shown that the majority of people who are given these two problems prefer (A) in
the first situation and (D) in the second situation. Explain why an expected utility maximizer might
prefer (A) and (C) or might prefer (B) and (D), but would
not prefer (A) and (D). Do you think it is reasonable to prefer (A) and (D)? Why or why not?
Suppose you're on
a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one
door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1
[but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the
doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to
you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?"
Is it to your advantage to
switch your choice? What would you do if
confronted by this problem, and why? Write a clear explanation of
the rationale for your answer.