? $ Lansing, J. Stephen
Kremer, James N. 1993a Emergent properties of Balinese water temple networks: Coadaptation on a rugged fitness landscape 97-114 American Anthropologist 95 1 lc_abm ? John Landis
Ming Zhang 1998 The second generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 2, Specification and calibration results of the land-use change submodel 795-824/ Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 25 6 lc_stats 1998i In this paper, part 2 of a three-part series, we present the formal specification and calibration results of the land-use change component of the second-generation California urban futures model. The land-use change component consists of a series of nonordinal multinomial logit models of site-specific land-use changes. These models incorporate spatial measures (for example, mix of adjacent land uses, and proximity to similar activities) as well as local policy and accessibility measures. Various model forms are developed and explained, as are multiple approaches to evaluating the equation for goodness-of-fit. Landis98b7 http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b25/b250795.html Required? John Landis
Ming Zhang 1998[ The second generation of the California Urban Futures Model: Part 1, Model logic and theory 657-666/ Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 25 5 lc_stats 1998i In this paper we explore the theory and logic behind the development of the second generation of the California urban futures model, a site-specific urban growth and simulation model. The second-generation model remedies three of the major shortcomings of the first generation. It substitutes a statistical model of urban land-use change, calibrated against historical experience, for an uncalibrated 'developer-driven' model. It includes multiple urban land uses (for example, single-family residential, apartments, retail and office, and industrial) and allows them to bid against each other for preferred sites. It allows previously developed sites to be redeveloped into different uses. Finally, in addition to simulating the spatial impacts of regulatory policies, it can also simulate the effects of major infrastructure investments such as highways and transit line. Landis98a7 http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b25/b250657.html ?
Lambin, E. F. 1994+ Modelling Deforestation Processes: A ReviewQ Tree Series B, Research Report No. 1 Tropical Ecosystem Environment by Satellites Luxemburg European Commission lc_intro }D? K Agarwal, Chetan
Green, Glen M.
Grove, J. Morgan
Evans, Tom
Schweik, Charles 2000\ A review and assessment of land-use change models: Dynamics of space, time, and human choiceW Fourth International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4)
Banff, Canada WWW September 2–87 http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/upload/237 ? Luc Anselin 1988( Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models Dordrecht, Germany Kluwer Academic Press 1988 anselin ? Baker, W. L. 1989& A review of models in landscape change 111-133 Landscape Ecology 2 2 lc_into,ecology ? Balmann, A. 19972 Farm-based modelling of regional structural change 85-108) European Review of Agricultural Economics 25 1 lc_abmH D? . Balmann, A
K. Happe
K. Kellermann
A. Kleingarn 2003P Adjustment costs of agri-environmental policy switchings: A multi-agent approachV Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-agent Approaches
M. A. Janssen! Cheltenham, U.K.; Northampton, MA Edward Elgar Publishers lc_abmGF?
' Barreteau, O.
F. Bousquet
J.M. Attonaty 2001 Role-playing games for opening the black box of multi-agent systems: method and lessons of its application to Senegal River Valley irrigated systems5 Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 4 2 lc_abm( http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/4/2/5.html ? # Balzter, H.
Braun, P. W.
Kohler, W. 19980 Cellular automata models for vegetation dynamics 113-125 Ecological Modelling 107 2/3
lc_ca
ecology ? Michael Batty
Yichun Xie 1994` Modeling inside GIS: Part 1, Model structures, exploratory spatial data analysis and aggregation 291-3077 International Journal of Geographic Information Systems 8 3
lc_integrated 1994 Batty1 ?
Michael Batty
Yichun Xie 1994R Modeling inside GIS: Part 2, Selecting and calibrating urban models using ARC-INFO 451-4707 International Journal of Geographic Information Systems 8 5
lc_integrated 1994 Batty2 ? Batty, M.
Y. Xie
Z. Sun 1999; Modeling urban dynamics through GIS-based cellular automata 205-233( Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 23 3 lc_ca ? Berger, Thomas 2001 Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: A simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes, and policy analysis 245-260 Agricultural Economics 25 2-3 lc_abm September Required ? * Bousquet, F.
I. Bakam
H. Proton
C. Le Page 19985 Cormas: Common-pool resources and multi-agent systems 826-837( Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 1416 lc_abm+D? j Bousquet, F.
F. O. Barreteau
P. d'Aquino
M. Etienne
S. Boissau
S. Auber
C. Le Page
D. Babin
J.C. Castella 2003K Multi-agent systems and role games: An approach for ecosystem co-management/ Multi-Agent Approaches for Ecosystem Management
M. A. Janssen In preparation lc_abm @? G Helen Briassoulis 1999@ Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches The Web Book of Regional Science West Virginia University Regional Research Institute" LUCC
modeling methodology
lc_intro7 http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/contents.htm Required (Selected sections) ?
Case, Anne 1991$ Spatial patterns in household demand 953-965 Econometrica 59 48 spatial econometrics, spatial interdependencies,lc_stats July ?
Case, Anne 1992/ Neighborhood influence and technological change 491-508$ Regional science and urban economics 228 spatial econometrics, spatial interdependencies,lc_stats ? Chomitz, K. M.
Gray, D. A. 1996E Roads, land use, and deforestation: A spatial model applied to Belize 487-512 The World Bank Economic Review 10 3 lc_stats
Will intensifying the road network around market areas produce greater economic returns and less environmental damage than extending the road network into new areas?Rural roads promote economic development but also facilitate deforestation. To explore the tradeoffs between development and environmental damage posed by road building, Chomitz and Gray develop and estimate a spatially explicit model of land use. This model takes into account location and land characteristics and predicts land use at each point on the landscape.
They find that:
° Market access and distance to roads strongly affect the probability of agricultural use, especially for commercial agriculture.
° High slopes, poor drainage, and low soil fertility discourage both commercial and semi-subsistence agriculture.
° Semi-subsistence agriculture is especially sensitive to soil acidity and lack of nitrogen (confirming anthropological findings that subsistence farmers are shrewd judges of soil).
Spatially explicit models are analytically powerful because they exploit rich spatial variation in causal variables, including the precise siting of roads. They are useful for policy because they can pinpoint threats to particular critical habitats and watersheds.
This model is a descendant of the venerable von Thünen model. It assumes that land will tend to be devoted to its highest-value use, taking into account tenure and other constraints. The value of a plot for a particular use depends on the land's physical productivity for that use and the farmgate prices of relevant inputs and outputs. A reduced-form, multinomial logit specification of this model calculates implicit values of land in alternative uses as a function of land location and characteristics. The resulting equations can then be used for prediction or analysis.
The model was applied to cross-sectional data for 198992 for Belize, a forested country currently experiencing rapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture. A geographic information system was used to manage the spatial data and extract variables based on a three kilometer sample grid.
Three land uses were distinguished: "natural" vegetation, comprising forests, woodlands, wetlands, and savanna; semi-subsistence agriculture, comprising traditional milpa (slash-and-burn) cultivation and other nonmechanized cultivation of annual crops; and commercial agriculture, consisting mainly of sugarcane, pasture, citrus, and mechanized production of corn and kidney beans.
Two dimensions of distance to market were distinguished: the distance from each sample point to the road, and on-road travel time to the nearest town. Data on a wide variety of land and soil characteristics were also used.- http://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/wobaac/1444.html ? Chuvieco, E. 1993? Integration of linear programming and GIS for land-use modeling 71-839 International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 7 1 lc_opt Required .? Clarke, K.C.
S. Hoppen
L. Gaydos 1997b A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area 247-261 Environment and Planning B 24 2 lc_ca In this paper we describe a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model developed to predict urban growth as part of a project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization on the San Francisco Bay area's climate. The rules of the model are more complex than those of a typical CA and involve the use of multiple data sources, including topography, road networks, and existing settlement distributions, and their modification over time. In addition, the control parameters of the model are allowed to self-modify: that is, the CA adapts itself to the circumstances it generates, in particular, during periods of rapid growth or stagnation. In addition, the model was written to allow the accumulation of probabilistic estimates based on Monte Carlo methods. Calibration of the model has been accomplished by the use of historical maps to compare model predictions of urbanization, based solely upon the distribution in year 1900, with observed data for years 1940, 1954, 1962, 1974, and 1990. The complexity of this model has made calibration a particularly demanding step. Lessons learned about the methods, measures, and strategies developed to calibrate the model may be of use in other environmental modeling contexts. With the calibration complete, the model is being used to generate a set of future scenarios for the San Francisco Bay area along with their probabilities based on the Monte Carlo version of the model. Animated dynamic mapping of the simulations will be used to allow visualization of the impact of future urban growth.7 http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b24/b240247.html Required ? " Cromley, Robert G.
Hanink, Dean M. 19993 Coupling land-use allocation models with raster GIS 137-153 Journal of Geographic Systems 1 lc_optGD? Deadman, P.
Schlager, E. 2002^ Agent-based simulations of household decision making and land use change near Altamira, Brazil Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Modeling Techniques for Understanding Social and Ecological Processes Gimblett, H. R Oxford University Press lc_abm ?
EPA 2000} Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns 260 Cincinnati, OHH U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development lc_intro EPA/600/R-00/098 ? Joshua M. Epstein
Robert Axtell 1996? Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Ground Up Washington, D.C. Brookings Institution Press lc_abm 1996 epstein96? Geoghegan, Jacqueline
Pritchard, Lowell Jr.
Ogneva-Himmelberger, Yelena
Roy Chowdury, Rinku
Sanderson, Steven
Turner, B. L., II 1998L "Socializing the pixel" and "pixelizing the social" in land-use/cover change 51-69 People and PixelsC Liverman, Diana
Moran, Emilio F.
Rindfuss, Ronald R.
Stern, Paul C. Washington, DC National Research Council lc_intro ? 1 Jacqueline Geoghegan
Lisa Wainger
Nancy Bockstael 1997\ Spatial landscape indices in a Hedonic framework: An ecological economics analysis using GIS 251-264 Ecological Economics 23 lc_stats 1997 gwandb ? Gilbert, N.
K.G. Troitzsch 1999# Simulation for the Social Scientist
London, UK Open University Press lc_abm ? Gimblett, H. R 2001 Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Modeling Techniques for Understanding Social and Ecological Processes Oxford, U.K. Oxford University Press lc_abm 8 ? 9 Matt Hare
Davide Medugno
Johannes Heeb
Claudia Pahl-Wostl 2002h An Applied Methodology for Participatory Model Building of Agent-Based Models for Urban Water Management 61-66& 3rd Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation Christoph Urban Ghent, Belgium SCS-European Publishing House lc_abm ?! Hegselmann, R. 1998- Modeling social dynamics by cellular automata 37-64% Computer Modeling of Social Processes& W.B.G. Liebrand
A. Nowak
R. Hegselmann London SAGE Publications lc_ca Z?" M. Herold
G. Menz 2001h Landscape metric signatures (LMS) to improve urban landuse information derived from remotely sensed data 251-256 Proceedings of the 20th EARSeL Sympsium Remote Sensing in the 22st Century: A Decade of Trans-European Remote Sensing Cooperation, 14-16 June 2000 M. F. Buchroithner Dresden, Germany lc_vandvt 20th EARSeL Symposium -- Remote Sensing in the 21st Century: A Decade of Trans-European Remote Sensing Cooperation June 2001 herold012 http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~mherold/publication.html/ http://www.geog.ucsb.edu// mherold/earsmenz.pdf VD?# Hoffmann, M
H. Kelley
T. Evans 2003n Simulating land-cover change in South-Central Indiana: An agent-based model of deforestation and afforestationV Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent Approaches
M. A. Janssen! Cheltenham, U.K.; Northampton, MA Edward Elgar Publishers lc_abm ?$ Hogeweg, P. 19888 Cellular automata as a paradigm for ecological modelling 81-100# Applied Mathematics and Computation 27 1
lc_ca
ecology ( ?% Howitt, Richard E 1995! Positive mathematical programming 329-42* American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77 2 lc_opt May A method for calibrating models of agricultural production and
resource use using nonlinear yield or cost functions is developed.
The nonlinear parameters are shown to be implicit in the observed
land allocation decisions at a regional or farm level. The method
is implemented in three stages and initiated by a constrained
linear program. The procedure automatically calibrates the model
in terms of output, input use, objective function values, and dual
values on model constraints. The resulting nonlinear models show
smooth responses to parametrization and satisfy the Hicksian
conditions for competitive firms. ?& Elena Irwin
Nancy Bockstael 2002] Interacting agents, spatial externalities, and the evolution of residential land use patterns 31-54 Journal of Economic Geography 2 1 lc_stats Jan irwin01 Required ?' Janssen, M.A 2003V Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent Approaches! Cheltenham, U.K.; Northampton, MA Edward Elgar Publishers lc_abm ?( Judd, Kenneth L. 1997G Computational Economics and Economic Theory: Substitutes or Complements 907–942( Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 21 6 lc_abm ?)
Judson, O. P. 19941 The rise of the individual-based model in ecology 9-14 Trends in Ecology and Evolution 9 1 lc_abm
ecology ?* Kaimowitz, D.
Angelsen, A. 19983 Economic Models of Tropical Deforestation: A Review Jakarta, Indonesia* Centre for International Forestry Research lc_intro 1998 Ϫ?+ Timothy A. Kohler 2000' Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies New York and Oxford Oxford University Press lc_abm 2000 kohler00( SFI studies in the science of complexityǾ?, K Timothy A. Kohler
James Kresl
Carla Van West
Eric Carr
Richard H. Wilshusen 2000 Be there then: A modeling approach to settlement determinants and spatial efficiency among late ancestral pueblo populations of the Mesa Verde region, U.S. Southwest 145-178' Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies& Kohler, Timothy A.
Gumerman, George J. New York and Oxford Oxford Univeristy Press lc_abm( SFI studies in the science of complexity x ?- Levin, S.A. 1992+ The problem of pattern and scale in ecology 1943-1967 Ecology 73 6 lc_intro( ?. O Arend Ligtenberg
Arnold K. Bregt
Monica Wachowicz
Adrie Beulens
Dik L. Kettenis 2002B Multi-agent Land Use Change Simulation: Modeling Actors Perception 93-98& 3rd Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation Christoph Urban Ghent, Belgium SCS-European Publishing House lc_abmwD?/ 9 Lim, K.
Deadman, P.
Moran, E.
Brondizio, E.
McCracken, S. 2001^ Agent-based simulations of household decision making and land use change near Altamira, Brazil Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Modeling Techniques for Understanding Social and Ecological Processes Gimblett, H. R Oxford, U.K. Oxford University Press lc_abm BD?0 Lynam, T. 2003o Complex and useful but certainly wrong: A multi-agent agro-ecosystem model from the semi-arid areas of ZimbabweV Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent Approaches
M. A. Janssen! Cheltenham, U.K.; Northampton, MA Edward Elgar Publishers lc_abm D?1
Manson, S. M. 2000a Agent-based dynamic spatial simulation of land-use/cover change in the Yucatán peninsula, MexicoW Fourth International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4)
Banff, Canada lc_abmb The author presents on-going dissertation research on an “Agent-based
Dynamic Spatial Simulation” (ADSS), used in this paper to project short-term
forest-regrowth scenarios in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. A conceptual
framework based on land manager decision making in relation to
socioeconomic institutions and the environment is mapped onto a model
composed of an agent-based model and generalized cellular automata. The
ADSS is calibrated and validated with household surveys, archival research,
and spatial data including imagery and maps of land-use/cover and
biophysical characteristics.G http://www.tc.umn.edu/~manson/Resources/Manson_2000_GISEM4_ADSS_www.pdf RequiredFD?2 Manson, Steven M. ForthcomingA The SYPR integrative assessment model: Complexity in developmentT Final Frontiers: Understanding Land Change in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region4 Turner II, B. L.
Foster, David
Geoghegan, Jacqueline
Oxford, UK Claredon Oxford University Press LUCC, ADSS, lc_abm =?3
Kevin McGarigal
Barbara J. Marks 1994Q FRAGSTATS: Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Quantifying Landscape Structure Portland, ORO U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station lc_vandv 1994 fragstats Report PNW-GTR-351 Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-351 ?4 Mertens, Benoit
Lambin, Eric. F. 19977 Spatial modelling of deforestation in southern Cameroon 143-162 Applied Geography 17 2 lc_stats ? Manson,S. M. 2005y Agent-based modeling and genetic programming for modeling land change in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region of Mexico 47-62% Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 111 1 @pd
abm
Geog8292 2470 ID: 3534 h ? ? J Pontius, R. G., Jr. 2000L Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps 1011-1016. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 66 8 lc_vandv pontius00 Required ?? Pontius, R. G.
Schneider, L. 20010 Land-use change model validation by a ROC method 239-248' Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85 1-3 lc_vandv Required{?@
K. S. Rajan
R. Shibasaki 2000M Land Use/Cover Changes and Water Resources - Experiences from AGENT-LUC Model 1-16 Tokyo, Japanw International Center for Disaster Mitigation Engineering (INCEDE), Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo lc_abm Conference Proceedings Oct.; http://incede.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/reports/Report_19/Rajan.pdf 19 ?A : Rouchier, J.
F. Bousquet,
M. Requier-Desjardins
M. Antona 2001{ A multi-agent model for describing transhumance in North Cameroon: Comparison of different rationality to develop a routine 527-559( Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25 lc_abm ?B 9 Sanders, L.
D. Pumain
H. Mathian
F. Guérin-Pace
S. Bura 19976 SIMPOP - a multiagent system for the study of urbanism 287-305/ Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 24 lc_abm }?C
Schelling, T. 1971 Dynamic models of segregation 143-186! Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1 lc_abm D?D Schelling, Thomas C. 1978 Mircomotives and Macrobehavior' Fels lectures on public policy analysis New York W. W. Norton lc_abm D?E
Torrens, P.M. 2002e New advances in urban simulation: Cellular automata and multi-agent systems as planning support tools$ Planning Support Systems in Practice Geertman, S. & Stillwell, J. London Springer-Verlag lc_abm forthcoming ?F
Torrens, P.M. 2001c Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait . . . University College, London, U.K. lc_abm CASA Working paper 32 ?G ! Torrens, Paul M
O'Sullivan, David 2001A Cellular automata and urban simulation: Where do we go from here? 163-168 Environment and Planning B 28 2 lc_ca 9?H
1 Trame, A.
Harper, S. J.
Aycrigg, J.
Westervelt, J 1997h The Fort Hood Avian Simulation Model: A Dynamic Model of Ecological Influences on Two Endangered Species Champaign, Ill.# U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers, CERL lc_abm trame970 http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/dsm_FHASM_frame.htm 97/88}?I
G E Turner, B.L. II
D. Skole
S. Sanderson
G. Fischer
L. Fresco
R. Leemans 19955 Land-Use and Land-Cover Change; Science/Research Plan Stockholm and Geneva IGBP and HDP lc_intro' http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/lucc.html Required (Selected sections)" IGBP Report No.35, HDP Report No.7 ?J Veldkamp, A.
Fresco, L. O. 1996L CLUE: A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects 253-270 Ecological Modelling 85 2/3
lc_integrated ?K Veldkamp, A.
Lambin, E. F. 2001 Predicting land-use change 1-6( Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 85 1-3 lc_intro oB?L G + Verburg, P. H.
P. Schot
M. Dijst
A. Velkamp ForthcomingC Land-Use Change Modeling: Current Practice and Research Priorities
GeoJournal# LUCC, modeling methodology,lc_intro verburg03K http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/T.%20Veldkamp%20(intro).pdf Required ?N 3 Weinberg, Marca
Kling, Catherine L.
Wilen, James E. 1993 Water markets and water quality 278-91* American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75 2 lc_opt May In addition to improving the allocative efficiency of water use,
water markets may reduce irrigation-related water quality
problems. This potential benefit is examined with a nonlinear
programming model developed to simulate agricultural
decision-making in a drainage problem area in California's San
Joaquin Valley. Results indicate that a 30 percent drainage goal
is achievable through improvements in irrigation practices and
changes in cropping patterns induced by a water market. Although
water markets will not generally achieve a least-cost solution,
they may be a practical alternative to economically efficient, but
informationally intensive, environmental policies such as
Pigouvian taxes. P ?O
B Westervelt, James D.
Hannon, Bruce M.
Levi, Shaun
Harper, Steve J. 1997k A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) Habitat in the Central Mojave Desert
Champaign, IL# U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers, CERL lc_abm westervelt97/ http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/dsm_TORT_frame.htm 97/102 ?P R. White
G. Engelen 1993r Cellular automata and fractal urban form: A cellular modeling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns 1175-1199 Environment and Planning A 25 8 lc_ca August 1993 White ?Q White, R.
Engelen, G. 19947 Cellular dynamics and GIS: Modelling spatial complexity 237-253 Geographical Systems 1 3 lc_cae?R White, R.
G. Engelen 1997G Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modelling 235-246 Environment and Planning B 24 2 lc_ca We present an integrated model of regional spatial dynamics consisting of a cellular automaton-based model of land use linked both to a geographic information system (GIS) and to standard nonspatial models of regional economics and demographics, as well as to a simple model of environmental change. The operation of the model is illustrated with an application to the island of St Lucia developed for the purpose of providing insights into the possible socioeconomic consequences for the island of global climate change. On the basis of results from this and other applications of the model, we conclude that cellular automata not only permit a detailed modelling and realistic prediction of land-use patterns, but they also provide a means of introducing the effects of spatially localized environmental factors, as represented in the GIS, into the operation of standard economic and demographic models, which are otherwise unconstrained. Required ?S White, R.
Engelen, G. 2000U High-resolution integrated modeling of spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems 383-400) Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems 24
lc_integrated ?T Wu, F. 1998N An experiment on the generic polycentricity of urban growth in a cellular city 731-752 Environment and Planning B 25 lc_caD?U Munroe, Darla
York, Abagail 2001s Jobs, houses and trees: Changing regional structure, local land-use patterns, and forest cover in Southern Indiana.N 48th North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International
Charleston SC lc_stats Nov. 17
munroe2001/ http://php.indiana.edu/~dmunroe/RSAI_munroe.pdf Under review, Growth and Change ?V Anselin, Luc 20005 GIS, Spatial Econometrics and Social Science Research 11-15 Journal of Geographical Systems 2 1 Some ideas are formulated on the challenges presented to GIS, spatial analysis and spatial econometrics that result from recent trends in social science research. These new developments are characterized by a focus on the geography of phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the need to extend concepts of space, to broaden the analytical toolbox and to develop software and advance education. ?W Anselin, Luc
Bera, Anil K. 1998[ Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Models with an Introduction to Spatial Econometrics pages 237-89' Handbook of applied economic statistics# Ullah, Aman
Giles, David- E. A. eds
Statistics Textbooks and Monographs ?X % Bell, Kathleen P.
Bockstael, Nancy E. 2000b Applying the Generalized-Moments Estimation Approach to Spatial Problems Involving Microlevel Data 72-82" Review of Economics and Statistics 82 1 lc_stats The application of spatial econometrics techniques to microlevel data of firms or households is problematic because of potentially large sample sizes and more-complicated spatial weight matrices. This paper provides the first application to actual household-level data of a new generalized-moments (GM) estimation technique developed by Kelejian and Prucha. The results based on this method, which is computationally feasible for any size data set, track those generated from the more conventional maximum-likelihood approach. The GM approach is shown to have the added advantage of easily allowing estimation of a more flexible functional form for the spatial weight matrix. ?Y Parks, P. J.
Murray, B. C. 1994V Land attributes and land allocation: nonindustrial forest use in the Pacific Northwest 558-575 Forest science 40 3d land-use. multiple-use. forest-policy. land-policy. models-. pacific-northwest-states-of-usa.
lc_opt A land allocation model quantifies the influence of timber benefits, agricultural benefits. population, and land attributes on nonindustrial forest land allocation in the Pacific Northwest. The proportion of land in forest use only gradually changes and may be unresponsive to markets for land products or market-based pokey instruments such as reforestation cost subsidies. Consequently, economic responses to policies may take place within forest rotations, which could change the mix of timber and nontimber benefits from private forests in favor of timber. If joint production of timber and nontimber benefits on private lands is to be considered a policy goal, new policy instruments may be needed.@?Z
G K Agarwal, Chetan
Green, Glen M.
Grove, J. Morgan
Evans, Tom
Schweik, Charles 2002\ A review and assessment of land-use change models: Dynamics of space, time, and human choice Joint publication by the Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change at Indiana University-Bloomington and the USDA Forest Service Burlington, VT8 USDA Forest Service Northeastern Forest Research Station# LUCC, modeling methodology,lc_intro UFS Technical ReportM A review of different types of land-use change models incorporating human processes. Presents a framework to compare land-use change models in terms of scale (both spatial and temporal) and complexity, and how well they incorporate space, time, and human decisionmaking. Examines a summary set of 250 relevant citations and develops a bibliography of 136 papers. From these papers, 19 land-use models are reviewed in detail as representative of the broader set of models. Summarizes and discusses the 19 models in terms of dynamic (temporal) and spatial interactions, as well as human decisionmaking. Many raster models examined mirror the extent and resolution of remote-sensing data. The broadest-scale models generally are not spatially explicit. Models incorporating higher levels of human decisionmaking are more centrally located with respect to spatial and temporal scales, probably due to the lack of data availability at more extreme scales. Examines the social drivers of land-use change and methodological trends and concludes with some proposals for future directions in land-use modeling. agarwal03\ http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/newtown_square/publications/technical_reports/pdfs/2002/gtrne297.pdf Required NE-297 ?[ " Irwin, Elena
Geoghegan, Jacqueline 2001[ Theory, data, and methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change 7-23' Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85 1-3 lc_intro June irwin01?\ G Anas, A.
Arnott, R.
Small, K. A. 1998 Urban Spatial Structure 1426-1464 Journal of Economic Literature 36 3 lc_intro September Urban structure is increasingly characterized by decentralization, dispersion, and multiple employment centers. Much is known empirically about such patterns, and about how the interplay between agglomerative and dispersive forces generates spatial structures that are complex and prone to multiple equilibria and dynamic path-dependence. These forces operate at different spatial scales; many entail unpriced interaction, and external scale economies deriving from product differentiation and endogenous technical change appear particularly important. Because these forces interact in complex ways, inefficiencies in urban structure are resistant to simple policy interventions. anas98 Required UCTC Working Paper 357@ ?] G Angelsen, A.
Kaimowitz, D. 1999N Rethinking the causes of tropical deforestation: Lessons from economics models 73-98 The World Bank Research Observer 14 1 Washington, DC The World Bank lc_intro 1999 This article, which synthesizes the results of more than 140 economic models analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation, raises significant doubts about many conventional hypotheses in the debate about deforestation. More roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm employment generally lead to more deforestation. How technical change, agricultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect deforestation—if at all—is unknown. The role of macroeconomic factors such as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth, and foreign debt is also ambiguous. This review, however, finds that policy reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment efforts may increase the pressure on forests. Although the boom in deforestation modeling has yielded new insights, weak methodology and poor quality data make the results of many models questionable.I http://www.worldbank.org/research/journals/wbro/obsfeb99/pdf/article4.pdf RequiredZ?^ G Geist, H.
Lambin, E. F. 2002H Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation 143-150
Bioscience 52 2 lc_intro February@ http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/pdf/02_February_Article_Geist_.pdf Required LUCC report series ?_
Heimlich, R. E.
Anderson, W. D. 2001Q Development at the Urban Fringe and Beyond: Impacts on Agriculture and Rural Land 88 Washington, DC Economic Research Service, USDA Land-use change ERS Agricultural Economic ReportI Land development in the United States is following two routes: expansion of urban areas and large-lot development (greater than 1 acre per house) in rural areas. Urban expansion claimed more than 1 million acres per year between 1960 and 1990, yet is not seen as a threat to most farming, although it may reduce production of some high-value or specialty crops. The consequences of continued large-lot development may be less sanguine, since it consumes much more land per unit of housing than the typical suburb. Controlling growth and planning for it are the domains of State and local governments. The Federal Government may be able to help them in such areas as building capacity to plan and control growth, providing financial incentives for channeling growth in desirable directions, or coordinating local, regional, and State efforts.
heimlich01, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aer803/ 803u?`
M. Vesterby
K. S. Krupa 2001- Major Uses of Land in the United States, 1997 60 Washington, DC Economic Research Service, USDA lc_intro ERS Statistical Bulletin Septemberd This report provides land use estimates for major land uses in the United States, by State for 1997. Land-use change+ http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/sb973/ 973 ?a Nelson, G.
Hellerstein, D. 1997Z Do roads cause deforestation? Using satellite images in econometric analysis of land use. 80-88* American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79 lc_statsG http://www.ace.uiuc.edu/faculty/gnelson/papers/lu_paper/description.htm ?b # Nelson, G. C.
V. Harris
S. W. Stone 2001T Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darien, Panama 187-205 Land Economics 2 lc_stats?c Mertens, Benoit
Lambin, E. F. 20003 Land-cover change trajectories in Southern Cameroon 467-4941 Annals of the Association of American Geographers 90 3 lc_stats? http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/E.%20Lambin.pdf Required ?d 2 Walker, R.T
Perz, S.
Caldas, M.
Texeira da Silva 2002U Land Use and Land Cover Change in Forest Frontiers: The Role of Household Life Cycles 169-199% International Regional Science Review 25 2 lc_stats Required }?e Geoghegan, Jacqueline
Villar, S. C.
Klepesis, P.
Mendoza, P. M.
Ogneva-Himmelberger, Yelena
Chowdhury, R. R.
Turner II, B. L.
Vance, C. 2001o Modeling tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatán peninsular region: comparing survey and satellite data 25-46' Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85 1-3 lc_stats This paper presents some initial modeling results from a large, interdisciplinary research project underway in the southern Yucatán peninsular region. The aims of the project are: to understand, through individual household survey work, the behavioral and structural dynamics that influence land managers' decisions to deforest and intensify land use; model these dynamics and link their outcomes directly to satellite imagery; model from the imagery itself; and, determine the robustness of modeling to and from the satellite imagery. Two complementary datasets, one from household survey data on agricultural practices including information on socio-economic factors and the second from satellite imagery linked with aggregate government census data, are used in two econometric modeling approaches. Both models test hypotheses concerning deforestation during different time periods in the recent past in the region. The first uses the satellite data, other spatial environmental variables, and aggregate socio-economic data (e.g., census data) in a discrete-choice (logit) model to estimate the probability that any particular pixel in the landscape will be deforested, as a function of explanatory variables. The second model uses the survey data in a cross-sectional regression (OLS) model to ask questions about the amount of deforestation associated with each individual farmer and to explain these choices as a function of individual socio-demographic, market, environmental, and geographic variables. In both cases, however, the choices of explanatory variables are informed by social science theory as to what are hypothesized to affect the deforestation decision (e.g., in a von Thünen model, accessibility is hypothesized to affect choice; in a Ricardian model, land quality; in a Chayanovian model, consumer–labor ratio). The models ask different questions using different data, but several broad comparisons seem useful. While most variables are statistically significant in the discrete choice model, none of the location variables are statistically significant in the continuous model. Therefore, while location affects the overall probability of deforestation, it does not appear to explain the total amount of deforestation on a given location by an individual.6 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T3Y-433P6Y4-H&_user=10&_coverDate=06%2F30%2F2001&_rdoc=3&_fmt=summary&_orig=browse&_srch=%23toc%234959%232001%23999149998%23251240!&_cdi=4959&_sort=d&_docanchor=&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=30a7d414c997edfcfee974e710189401?f Luc Anselin 2002] Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models 247-267 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_stats This paper reviews a number of conceptual issues pertaining to the implementation of an explicit "spatial" perspective in applied econometrics. It provides an overview of the motivation for including spatial effects in regression models, both from a theory-driven as well as from a data-driven perspective. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework necessary to carry out estimation and testing and the different assumptions, constraints and implications embedded in the various specifications available in the literature. The review combines insights from the traditional spatial econometrics literature as well as from geostatistics, biostatistics and medical image analysis. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-474DP0Y-1&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=def8ed35cf03f90fe734d9634d184f7b "?g Kathleen P. Bell
Elena G. Irwin 2002X Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural-urban interface 217-232 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_stats This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel-level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro-level spatial models. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-472BJ99-1&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=0f66f25b48094689cf07bcd95d4f964b Required ?h Nelson, G.
Geoghegan, Jacqueline 2002; Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environments 201-216 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_statsE Understanding determinants of land use in developing countries has become a priority for researchers and policy makers with a wide range of interests. For the vast majority of these land use issues, the location of change is as important as its magnitude. This overview paper highlights new economic approaches to modeling land use determinants that combine non-traditional data sources with novel economic models and econometric techniques. A key feature is that location is central to the analysis. All data elements include an explicit location attribute, estimation techniques include the potential for complications from spatial effects, and results are location-specific. The paper reviews the theory underlying these models. Since this paper is intended to provide the potential new researcher with an introduction to the challenges of this analysis, we present an overview of how remotely-sensed data are collected and processed, describe key GIS concepts and identify sources of data for this type of econometric analysis. Finally, selected papers using these techniques are reviewed. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-472JGYP-2&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=909bb2c9ae0299f91c86e96a4abe19aa Required ?i Colin Vance
Jacqueline Geoghegan 2002y Temporal and spatial modelling of tropical deforestation: a survival analysis linking satellite and household survey data 295-315 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_statsD We estimate a spatially explicit model of the forest clearance process among smallholder farmers in an agricultural frontier of southern Mexico. Our analysis takes as its point of departure a simple utility-maximising model that suggests many possible determinants of deforestation in an economic environment characterised by missing or thin markets. Hypotheses from the model are tested on a data set that combines a time series of satellite imagery with data collected from a survey of farm households whose agricultural plots were geo-referenced using a global positioning system (GPS). We implement a survival analysis to identify the effect of household level explanatory variables on the probability of deforestation. This approach allows us to introduce a measure of the time until clearance as a covariate, thereby affording a control for the effect of potentially important explanatory variables that vary through time but are not directly observable. In addition to identifying several variables relevant for policy analysis, including household demographics, proximity to roads, and government provision of agricultural support, model results suggest that the deforestation process is characterised by non-linear duration dependence, with the probability of forest clearance first decreasing and then increasing with the passage of time. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-474GJ0H-2&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=23f9cdaed426dfd0361776e885962c8e ?j ? S. J. Staal
I. Baltenweck
M. M. Waithaka
T. deWolff
L. Njoroge 2002 Location and uptake: integrated household and GIS analysis of technology adoption and land use, with application to smallholder dairy farms in Kenya 295-315 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_stats GIS-derived measures of location and space have increasingly been used in models of land use and ecology. However, they have made few inroads into the literature on technology adoption in developing countries, which continues to rely mainly on survey-derived information. Location, with all its dimensions of market access, demographics and agro-climate, nevertheless remains key to understanding potential for technology use. The measures of location typically used in the adoption literature, such as locational dummy variables that proxy a range of locational factors, now appear relatively crude given the increased availability of more explicit GIS-derived measures. This paper attempts to demonstrate the usefulness of integrating GIS-measures into analysis of technology uptake, for better differentiating and understanding locational effects. A set of GIS-derived measures of market access and agro-climate are included in a standard household model of technology uptake, applied to smallholder dairy farms in Kenya, using a sample of 3330 geo-referenced farm households. The three technologies examined are keeping of dairy cattle, planting of specialised fodder, and use of concentrate feed. Logit estimations are conducted that significantly differentiate effects of individual household characteristics from those related to location. The predicted values of the locational variables are then used to make spatial predictions of technology potential. Comparisons are made with estimations based only on survey data, which demonstrate that while overall explanatory power may not improve with GIS-derived variables, the latter yield more practical interpretations, which is further demonstrated through predictions of technology uptake change with a shift in infrastructure policy. Although requiring large geo-referenced data sets and high resolution GIS layers, the methodology demonstrates the potential to better unravel the multiple effects of location on farmer decisions on technology and land use. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-474GJ0H-2&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=23f9cdaed426dfd0361776e885962c8e ?k Daniel Müller
Manfred Zeller 2002 Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation 333-354 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_stats! The paper investigates geo-physical, agro-ecological, and socio-economic determinants of past land use change in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and assesses the influence of rural development policies on land cover change. Landsat satellite images from the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land cover in two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio-economic and policy variables hypothesised to influence land use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography was obtained from meteorological stations and from a digital soil map and digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using geographic information systems (GIS) software. A reduced-form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesised determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land classes during either of the two periods.
Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterised by land-intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labour- and capital-intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertiliser, improved access to rural roads and markets, and expansion of the irrigated area. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-47285H2-1&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=7a3b58d4deb6ee4629baec4bc3ea0116 ?l 0 Munroe, Darla
Southworth, Jane
Tucker, Catherine 2002` The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity 355-369 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_stats< This paper presents an econometric analysis of land-cover change in western Honduras. Ground-truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996, net forest regrowth occurred in the 1015 km2 study region. While some forest regrowth can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of forest regrowth greatly exceeds that of previously clear-cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land-cover changes most likely represent a complex mosaic of changing land-use patterns across time and space. Using satellite imagery from 1987, 1991 and 1996, we estimate a series of models, including binary probit models for each date, and a random-effects probit model using panel techniques. We also experiment with spatial sampling schemes designed to reduce residual spatial autocorrelation, and qualitatively compare the impact of spatial sampling on model accuracy. Lastly, we find that changes in relative prices, infrastructure improvement, and topography are all significantly related to changing land-cover patterns. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-47285H2-2&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=b63181e098b21e305a9c71258e11f602
?m Scott M. Swinton 2002f Capturing household-level spatial influence in agricultural management using random effects regression 371-381 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_statsz Data on agricultural and natural resource management typically have spatial patterns related to the landscapes from which they came. Consequently, econometric models designed to explain the determinants of humans' natural resource management practices or their outcomes often have spatial structure that can bring bias or inefficiency to parameter estimates.
Although econometric tools are available to correct for spatial structure, such tools are largely lacking for use with discrete dependent variable models. While one obvious solution would be to develop the necessary tools, an alternative is to identify conditions under which spatial dependency can be managed effectively without formal spatial autoregressive models.
This study examines conditions under which spatial structure corresponds closely to defined agro-ecological zones, making it possible to model spatial effects by random effects regression. Using household survey data sampled along agro-ecological zone strata, this article develops two models of links between farmer assets and agricultural natural resource degradation in southern Peru. The first stage model looks at determinants of crop yield loss over time (an index of soil productivity), while the second stage model looks at determinants of the extent of fallow cycles in crop rotation, a key agricultural practice reducing crop yield loss.
Diagnostic statistics for spatial dependency reveal spatial structure, particularly in the fallow model. This spatial dependency is eliminated in the ordinary least squares (OLS) models by inclusion of the agro-ecological zone random effects. In the spatially dependent fallow model, comparison of coefficient estimates between OLS and the spatial autoregressive maximum likelihood models showed OLS with random effects to give virtually identical results to the spatial autoregressive models, making the latter unnecessary.
These results show that spatial structure in natural resource management models can sometimes be captured by zonal variables. When this occurs, random effects regression can largely eliminate spatial dependency. A necessary precondition for this approach with household survey data is prior sample stratification according to landscape characteristics. Where random effects models can effectively capture spatial structure, they may also offer analysts greater flexibility in analyzing models with limited dependent variables. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-478R7KX-2&_origin=EMFR&_version=1&md5=bfd03d292b4208143e79a09774a9b5a8 ?n Deininger, K.
Minten, B. 2002W Determinants of Deforestation and the Economics of Protection: An Application to Mexico 943-960* American Journal of Agricultural Economics 84 4 lc_stats November We estimate the probability of deforestation at the plot level for Chiapas and Oaxaca, two poor Mexican states with high levels of biodiversity. Results highlight the importance of physio–geographic endowments as well as policy variables and allow to test explicitly for aggregation bias. They also suggest that, if combined with information on the biodiversity value of specific plots, such models could be of great relevance for policy by allowing to identify the ex ante risk of deforestation. http://www.ingenta.com/isis/searching/ExpandTOC/ingenta?issue=infobike://bpl/ajae/2002/00000084/00000004&index=5&WebLogicSession=PjPy1aSYaU85nnUSuq1m|9219908897430306315/-1052814329/6/7051/7051/7052/7052/7051/-1 Required&?o Anselin, Luc 20005 GIS, Spatial Econometrics and Social Science Research 11-15 Journal of Geographical Systems 2 1 lc_stats Some ideas are formulated on the challenges presented to GIS, spatial analysis and spatial econometrics that result from recent trends in social science research. These new developments are characterized by a focus on the geography of phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the need to extend concepts of space, to broaden the analytical toolbox and to develop software and advance education. !?p Anselin, Luc
Bera, Anil K. 1998[ Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Models with an Introduction to Spatial Econometrics pages 237-89' Handbook of applied economic statistics# Ullah, Aman
Giles, David- E. A. eds
Statistics Textbooks and Monographs lc_stats ?q Anselin, Luc 1995L SpaceStat, A Software Program for the Analysis of Spatial Data, Version 1.80 Morgantown, WV5 Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University lc_stats ?r Anselin, Luc 1995- Local Indicators of Spatial Association--LISA 93-115 Geographical Analysis 27 lc_stats _?s Anselin, Luc 1988[ Model Validation in Spatial Econometrics: A Review and Evaluation of Alternative Approaches 279-316% International Regional Science Review 11 3 lc_stats Formal approaches to assess the validity of spatial theoretical constructs are reviewed and evaluated with respect to their application and potential in spatial econometrics. A distinction is made between specification tests and model selection procedures. For the first, particular emphasis is on tests for residual spatial autocorrelation, tests on common factors, and tests on non-nested hypotheses. For the second, attention is focused on information-theoretic criteria, Bayesian approaches, and heuristic procedures. Also, some thoughts are presented on model validation as a multiobjective decision problem and its relevance in planning and policy analysis. O?t Anselin, Luc 1988( Spatial econometrics: Methods and models xvi, 284T Studies in Operational Regional Science series, Norwell, Mass.; London and Dordrecht Kluwer Academic lc_stats Graduate-level textbook in spatial statistics, econometrics, and regional analysis concentrates on the relevance of spatial effects to general issues of model specification, estimation, and other inference, taking a model-driven rather than a data-driven approach. Includes new methods and findings, and many new empirical examples. Introduces the formal probabilistic framework for the analysis of spatial processes. Covers estimation and hypothesis testing, discussing situations where the data are characterized by spatial dependence, the data are characterized by spatial heterogeneity, and where a time-space model is used. Outlines methodological problems arising in estimation and hypothesis testing. Provides an extensive empirical illustration for the various estimators and tests. Examines issues of model validation, discussing two types of specification tests: tests on spatial common factors and tests on non-nested hypotheses. Discusses model selection in spatial econometric models. Suggests directions for future research. Anselin is with the Department of Geography and Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Index. ?u Anselin, Luc
et al., 1996. Simple Diagnostic Tests for Spatial Dependence 77-104$ Regional Science and Urban Economics 26 1 lc_stats In this paper we propose simple diagnostic tests, based on ordinary least-squares (OLS) residuals, for spatial error autocorrelation in the presence of a spatially lagged dependent variable and for spatial lag dependence in the presence of spatial error autocorrelation, applying the modified Lagrange multiplier (LM) test developed by Bera and Yoon ("Econometric Theory," 1993, 9, 649-58). Our new tests may be viewed as computationally simple and robust alternatives to some existing procedures in spatial econometrics. We provide empirical illustrations to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed tests. The finite sample size and power performance of the tests are also investigated through a Monte Carlo study. The results indicate that the adjusted LM tests have good finite sample properties. In addition, they prove to be more suitable for the identification of the source of dependence (lag or error) than their unadjusted counterparts. Coauthors are Anil K. Bera, Raymond Florax, and Mann J. Yoon. ~?v Haining, Robert 1994; Diagnostics for Regression Modeling in Spatial Econometrics 325-41 Journal of Regional Science 34 3 lc_stats This paper describes statistics for model criticism in spatial econometrics. The purpose of these statistics is to evaluate how well a chosen model fits the data and to identify influential cases and how they affect the aggregate picture. The paper reviews results in Martin (1992) for the regression model with correlated errors where the coefficients of the variance matrix are assumed either known or fixed. The problems of applying the statistics in spatial econometric modeling are discussed. An application is reported which considers diagnostics for the mean function and highlights cases that might influence estimates of the parameter of the error model. Different ways of assessing the influence of cases are also described. ?w LeSage, James P. 19974 Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models 113-29% International Regional Science Review 20 1-2 lc_statsA Spatial econometrics has relied extensively on spatial autoregressive models. Anselin (l988) developed a taxonomy of these models using a regression model framework and maximum likelihood estimation methods. A Bayesian approach to estimating these models based on Gibbs sampling is introduced here It allows for non-constant variance over space taking an unspecified form and outliers in the sample data. In addition, estimates of the non-constant variance at each point in space allow inferences regarding the spatial nature of heteroskedasticity and the position of outliers. O?x Kennedy, P. 1998 A Guide to Econometrics Cambridge, Mass MIT Press 4th lc_stats3 A useful introductory reading; inaccurate in places O?y
Kmenta, J. 1997 Elements of Econometrics Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press 2nd lc_stats This classic text has proven its worth in university classrooms and as a tool kit in research--selling over 40,000 copies in the United States and abroad in its first edition alone. Users have included undergraduate and graduate students of economics and business, and students and researchers in political science, sociology, and other fields where regression models and their extensions are relevant. The book has also served as a handy reference in the "real world" for people who need a clear and accurate explanation of techniques that are used in empirical research.
Throughout the book the emphasis is on simplification whenever possible, assuming the readers know college algebra and basic calculus. Jan Kmenta explains all methods within the simplest framework, and generalizations are presented as logical extensions of simple cases. And while a relatively high degree of rigor is preserved, every conflict between rigor and clarity is resolved in favor of the latter. Apart from its clear exposition, the book's strength lies in emphasizing the basic ideas rather than just presenting formulas to learn and rules to apply.
The book consists of two parts, which could be considered jointly or separately. Part one covers the basic elements of the theory of statistics and provides readers with a good understanding of the process of scientific generalization from incomplete information. Part two contains a thorough exposition of all basic econometric methods and includes some of the more recent developments in several areas.
As a textbook, Elements of Econometrics is intended for upper-level undergraduate and master's degree courses and may usefully serve as a supplement for traditional Ph.D. courses in econometrics. Researchers in the social sciences will find it an invaluable reference tool.+ A good more advanced econometrics textbook. ?z Yeh, Anthony Gar-On
Xia Li 2002L A cellular automata model to simulate development density for urban planning 431-450 Environment and Planning B 29 3 lc_ca5 http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b29/b1288.html ?{ Batty, Michael 1997* Cellular automata and urban form: A primer 266-274, Journal of the American Planning Association 63 2 lc_ca Required?|
Torrens, Paul M. 2000) How cellular models of urban systems work London@ Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College, London lc_ca CASA Working Paper) http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/how_ca_work.pdf Good general reference 28 ?}
O'Sullivan, D.
Torrens, P.M. 2000 Cellular models of urban systems London@ Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College, London lc_ca CASA Working Paper, http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/cellularmodels.pdf 22 B?~ T Verburg, P. H.
Soepboer, W.
Veldkamp, A.
Limpiada, R.
Espaldon, V.
Mastura, S. S. A. 2002F Modelling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The Clue-S model 391-405 Environmental Management 30 3
lc_integratedD http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/P.%20Verbrug%20b.pdf Required "? Webster, C. J.
Wu, F. 1999? Regulation, land-use mix, and urban performance. Part 1: theory
1433 - 1442 Environment and Planning A 31 8 lc_ca August2 In this paper we present the theoretical model underlying a series of experiments that use cellular automata (CA) simulations to explore the impact of alternative systems of pollution property rights on urban morphology and performance. It is a partial equilibrium model of developer and community behaviour which allows a formal expression of the urban development processes under alternative regulative regimes. These include pure markets; impure markets without government; voluntary agreements on externality solutions; clubs and other near-market mechanisms of supplying quasi-public goods; and rigid zone-planning. In a second paper we describe how the model is embedded in a nondeterministic CA algorithm that yields simulated land-use patterns. Because the simulations are based on behavioural theory rather than ad hoc cell-transitions rules, they also yield meaningful urban performance indicators such as total, average, and marginal private profits and social costs. These permit tests of conventional urban economic theory within an explicit spatial framework.7 http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epa/abstracts/a31/a311433.html _? Webster, C. J.
Wu, F. 1999C Regulation, land-use mix, and urban performance. Part 2: Simulation
1529 - 1545 Environment and Planning A 31 9 lc_ca August` Part 1 of this two-part paper presented a spatial economic model of the urban development process which captures developers' profit-seeking behaviour, communities' welfare-seeking behaviour, and the mediating effects of alternative systems of land-use rights. Different systems of rights were shown to result in different land-use and density outcomes. In part 2 we describe the simulation model used to implement the theoretical model. The emphasis is on explaining the cellular automata methodology, but we also go on to illustrate the model output by comparing the structure and economic performance of two simulations. One simulates a free-market city in which developers have full property rights over land use. The other simulates a city in which the community has land-use rights and uses these to regulate development densities at socially optimal levels.7 http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epa/abstracts/a31/a311529.html Required 3? Jenerette, G.
Wu, J. 2001Y Analysis and simulation of land-use change in the central Arizona – Phoenix region, USA 611-626 Landscape Ecology 16 7 lc_caD To understand how urbanization has transformed the desert landscape in the central Arizona – Phoenix region of the United States, we conducted a series of spatial analyses of the land-use pattern from 1912–1995. The results of the spatial analysis show that the extent of urban area has increased exponentially for the past 83 years, and this urban expansion is correlated with the increase in population size for the same period of time. The accelerating urbanization process has increased the degree of fragmentation and structural complexity of the desert landscape. To simulate land-use change we developed a Markov-cellular automata model. Model parameters and neighborhood rules were obtained both empirically and with a modified genetic algorithm. Land-use maps for 1975 and 1995 were used to implement the model at two distinct spatial scales with a time step of one year. Model performance was evaluated using Monte-Carlo confidence interval estimation for selected landscape pattern indices. The coarse-scale model simulated the statistical patterns of the landscape at a higher accuracy than the fine-scale model. The empirically derived parameter set poorly simulated land-use change as compared to the optimized parameter set. In summary, our results showed that landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, fractal dimension, contagion) together were able to effectively capture the trend in land-use associated with urbanization for this region. The Markov-cellular automata parameterized by a modified genetic algorithm reasonably replicated the change in land-use pattern.* http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/0921-2973 Required 9?
, Parker, Dawn C.
Berger, Thomas
Manson, S. M. 2002| Meeting the Challenge of Complexity: Proceedings of the Special Workshop on Agent-Based Models of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change
Santa Barbara CIPEC/CSISS lc_abm CIPEC Collborative Report) http://www.csiss.org/maslucc/ABM-LUCC.htm CCR-3"?
, Parker, Dawn C.
Berger, Thomas
Manson, S. M. 2002` Agent-Based Models of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change: Report and Review of an International Workshop Bloomington, IN LUCC Focus 1 lc_abm LUCC Report Series6 http://www.indiana.edu/~act/focus1/FinalABM11.7.02.pdf 6 7? Yeqiao Wang
Xinsheng Zhang 2001T A dynamic modeling approach to simulating socioeconomic effects on landscape changes 141-162 Ecological Modelling 1401 1-2
lc_integrated7 Modeling and simulating the effects of human factors on landscape change remain as challenges for ecological studies. In this paper, we present a dynamic landscape simulation (DLS) approach to elucidate human-induced landscape changes for a 5104 km2 study area within the Chicago metropolitan region. The DLS consists of an urban growth simulation submodel and a land-cover simulation submodel. This approach simulates urban land-use expansion by incorporating socioeconomic and demographic data and predicts changes in the landscape as a result of urban expansion. A utility function of spatial choice and a methodology for the construction of that utility function were developed to execute the process. The approach, with dynamic adjustment of transition structures (i.e. the transition potentials, threshold and rate), overcomes the shortcomings of static and statistical models that use a constant transition probability in simulation modeling. It also allows selected economic principles to be integrated into landscape simulation. In this study, historical land-cover and census data were applied to derive transition thresholds and transition rates of the land cover changes. Comparison of the 1997 land-cover maps derived by a DLS simulation and by the classification of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data indicated that a 62.3% overall agreement was achieved among the changed areas. Landscape simulations of the study area from 1997 to 2020 at 5 year time interval were prepared. The results depicted the trends of landscape change in this large urban setting area.6 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBS-430NPPC-9&_user=10&_coverDate=05%2F30%2F2001&_rdoc=9&_fmt=summary&_orig=browse&_srch=%23toc%235934%232001%23998599998%23249891!&_cdi=5934&_sort=d&_docanchor=&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=5ec058d3514c40552082c58ff538ba1e Ǿ? Engelen, G. 2003 Development of a decision support system for the integrated assessment of policies related to desertification and land degradation in the Mediterranean 159-195k Climate change in the Mediterranean: Socio-economic perspectives of impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation Carlo Giupponi
Mrodecai Shechter Cheltenham, UK Edward Elgar
lc_integrated, FEEM series on economics and the environment RequiredH ? ' Engelen, G.
White, R.
de Nijs, A. C. M. 2003 Environment Explorer: a Spatial Policy Support Framework for the Integrated Assessment of Socio-Economic and Environmental Policies in the Netherlands 97-105 Integrated Assessment 4 2$ Andrea E. Rizzoli
Anthony J. Jakeman iEMSs
lc_integrated Required F? ? Strengers, B.
Leemans, R.
Eickhout, B.
de Vries, B.
Bouwman, L. 2002W The land-use projections in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model
Geojournal
lc_integratedF http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/B%20de%20Vries%20a.pdfk? " D. R. Oglethorpe
J. R. O'Callaghan 1995N Farm-level Economic Modelling within a River Catchment Decision Support System 93 - 1060 Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 38 1 lc_opt The diverse distribution of farm categories and objectives found within specific river catchment study areas necessitates a more detailed assessment of individual farm activity than can be provided by a catchment scale economic model. This paper deals with the modelling techniques and the processes of development involved in the construction of a farm-level economic model that can be used within a multi-disciplinary decision support system. Validation procedures show the model to be relatively accurate in estimating historically observed farm activity and also that it may be used with confidence for predicting the likely reactions of farmers to different agricultural policies. http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/app/home/contribution.asp?wasp=9cxkxmtvtre9dc2glftx&referrer=parent&backto=issue,7,11;journal,44,44;linkingpublicationresults,1,15 This is in a special issue devoted to the NELUP model ? 2 C. Line Carpentier
Stephen A. Vosti
Julie Witcover 2000h Intensified production systems on western Brazilian Amazon settlement farms: could they save the forest? 73-88' Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 1-3 lc_opt Annual land-use decisions of settlement farmers, estimated to approach half a million in the Amazon, can have significant impacts on forest conversion of the largest tropical moist forests. Given the biodiversity and climate change consequences of the disappearance of this forest, it is pivotal to understand these farmers' reactions to combinations of technologies, policies, and institutional arrangements to predict their deforestation implications. This study aims to find whether settlement farmers in the western Brazilian Amazon will adopt more intensive production systems, and if they do, what the impact of this adoption would be on deforestation and farm incomes. Adoption of four types of intensification and their economic and environmental impacts were predicted using a farm level bioeconomic linear programming model. The four intensification types were: no intensification, intensification of non-livestock activities on cleared land, intensification on all cleared land, and intensification on both cleared and forested land. Intensified land uses on either the cleared or forested lands generate higher returns to labor and land, and thus will likely be adopted by settlement farmers. Also, intensification of non-livestock activities on cleared land resulted in the largest deforestation rates. Despite its lower deforestation rate, intensification on all cleared land (including pasture) resulted in the least amount of preserved forest after 25 years. More precisely it decimated the forest. Intensification on forested land –– low-impact forest management –– slowed the deforestation rate, but did not stop it unless timber prices were increased to R$550 m-3 (a R$435 increase over 1994 prices). Even with intensified activities on forested land, pasture still dominated the landscape. In the long run, there is a trade-off between farm income and forest preserved, which results from intensification of land uses on the cleared land. Under the current socioeconomic and political setting existing intensification systems on the cleared land will not save the forest. Intensification systems on forested lands provide better hope because they increase the value of the standing forest, thus counteracting the pressure to deforest.6 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T3Y-41P172D-7&_user=10&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2000&_rdoc=7&_fmt=summary&_orig=browse&_srch=%23toc%234959%232000%23999179998%23218306!&_cdi=4959&_sort=d&_docanchor=&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=e2eda3a8f892482db812ff5e09804118 Required !? Arild Angelsen 1999o Agricultural expansion and deforestation: modelling the impact of population, market forces and property rights 185-218 Journal of Development Economics 58 1 lc_opt5 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBV-3VGJHXG-9&_user=10&_coverDate=02%2F28%2F1999&_rdoc=9&_fmt=summary&_orig=browse&_srch=%23toc%235936%231999%23999419998%2345569!&_cdi=5936&_sort=d&_docanchor=&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=2bfd1498b2b785b769c442a154767a22 Very mathematical. ?
Yates, C. M.
Rehman, T. Forthcoming?h An application of an extension to Positive Mathematical Programming: European Land Use Allocation Model lc_opt t.u.rehman@reading.ac.ukU? 2 Pijanowski, B.C.
D. G. Brown
G. Manik
B. Shellito 2002S Using Neural Nets and GIS to Forecast Land Use Changes: A Land Transformation Model 553-57( Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 26 6
lc_integrated% http://www.msu.edu/~pijanows/ceus.pdf@ Required. Many other related articles on Pijanowski's web site. ? Brown, D.
B. Pijanowski
J. Duh 2001a Modeling the Relationships between Land Use and Land Cover on Private Lands in the Upper Midwest. 247-263# Journal of Environmental Management 59 lc_intro* http://www.msu.edu/~pijanows/Brown0369.pdf ? , Ahn, SoEun
Andrew J. Plantinga
Ralph J. Alig 2000J Predicting Future Forestland Area: A Comparison of Econometric Approaches 363-376 Forest Science 46 lc_stats Required ? $ Turner, M. G.
Costanza, R.
Sklar, F. 1989@ Methods to evaluate the performance of spatial simulation models 1-18 Ecological Modelling 48 1/2 lc_vandv Required ? Lam, N.
Quattrochi, D. A. 1992P On the issues of scale, resolution, and fractal analysis in the mapping sciences 88-98 Professional Geographer 44 lc_vandv ?
Bian, Ling 1997D Multiscale nature of spatial data in scaling up environmental models 13-26 Scale in Remote Sensing and GIS) Quattrochi, Dale A.
Goodchild, Michael F. New York Lewis Publishers lc_vandv ?
Heuvelink, G. 2002Q Developments in statistical approaches to spatial uncertainty and its propagation 111 - 1139 International Journal of Geographical Information Science 16 2 lc_vandv GIS ? , Otter, H. S.
van der Veen, A.
Vriend, H. J. 2001G Abloom: Location behaviour, spatial patterns,
and agent-based modelling online5 Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 4 4 D? B W. Rand
M. Zellner
S. E. Page
R. Riolo
D. G. Brown
L. E. Fernandez 2002N The Complex Interaction of Agents and Environments: An Example in Urban Sprawl
Agent 2002 Chicago, IL http://agent2002.anl.gov/? W. Loibl
T. Toetzer 2003x Modeling growth and densification processes in suburban regions—simulation of landscape transition with spatial agents 553–563$ Environmental Modelling and Software 18 lc_abm Urban sprawl is an essential environmental issue to be monitored and forecasted in order to think about alternatives that could
lead to a more sustainable future development. Thus, the objective of the project presented here is to simulate the past and future
transformation of suburban land use patterns in the Vienna Region. (The paper describes some results of the project, “STAU-Wien”
(City–Suburb relations and development in the Vienna Region), was carried out during 2000–2002).
The paper discusses driving forces of suburban growth, and presents a model that simulates polycentric development of suburban
systems. The model introduces different settlement growth velocities within the suburban region considering housing area
densification and land use change from open space to built up area. In particular, the model takes into account suburban population
migration and commercial start ups controlled by regional and local factors (attractiveness/constraints) in the suburban Vienna
Region: large and small scale accessibility (traveling time to the core city, access to motorways), land prices, landscape attractiveness,
social and commercial services supply, traffic exposure obstacles as well as (land use) zoning constraints. The approach concentrates
on a Spatial Agent Model to stimulate regional migration and allocation decisions of households and commercial enterprises aiming
in the selection of target municipalities. Land use change will finally be performed by a cellular automaton to decide on densification
and land use change. The model has been developed and applied to simulate prior and future landscape transition processes for
the suburban region in the surroundings of Vienna, Austria. F? 7 Brown, D. G.
Page, S.E.
Riolo, R.
Zellner, M.
Rand. W. 2004M Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use.7 International Journal of Geographic Information SystemsZ path dependence
Model Validation
agent-based modeling
land use/cover transformation
lc_abm brown04T http://www.pscs.umich.edu/research/projects/sluce/publications/ijgis-sluce-final.pdf? ' Batty, M.
Jake Desyllas
Elspeth Duxbury 2003W Safety in Numbers? Modelling Crowds and Designing Control for the Notting Hill Carnival 1573–1590
Urban Studies 40 8 lc_abm" Events such as carnivals, parades, rock concerts, football matches, some types of
shopping—indeed, any situation involving rapid exit or entrance from or to high-capacity
buildings and vehicles—pose significant problems of public safety. Models designed to predict
crowding at such events are in their infancy and the best so far simulate panic situations and
evacuation possibilities within buildings and similarly confined spaces. In carnivals and street
parades, movement is over a much wider area and crowds form as much through competition
between attractions as through confinement in small spaces. A model is proposed in which the
event space is first explored by agents using ‘swarm intelligence’. Armed with information about
the space, agents then move in an unobstructed fashion to the event. Congestion is slowly reduced
by introducing controls until a ‘safe solution’ is reached. The latter stages of the simulation
require intervention by those who manage the event, the police. The model has been developed
to simulate the effect of changing the route of the Notting Hill Carnival, an annual event held
over two days in August each year in a 3 sq km area of west central London. The event attracts
over 1 million visitors and is widely regarded as posing a major threat to public safety. >k ? J . Claire A. Jantz
Scott J. Goetz
Mary K. Shelley 2003 Using the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model to Simulate the Impacts of Future Policy Scenarios on Urban Land Use in the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area 251 - 271 Environment and Planning B 30 lc_ca^ Declining water quality in the Chesapeake Bay estuary is due in part to
disruptions in the hydrological system caused by urban and suburban
development throughout its 167,000 km2 watershed. A modeling system that
could provide regional assessments of future development and explore the
potential impacts of different regional management scenarios would be useful
for a wide range of applications relevant to the future health of the Bay and its
tributaries. We describe and test a regional predictive modeling system that
could be used to meet these needs. An existing cellular automaton model,
SLEUTH, was applied to a 23,700 km2 area centered on the Washington-
Baltimore metropolitan region, which has experienced rapid land use change in
recent years. The model was calibrated using a historic time series of
developed areas derived from remote sensing imagery, and future growth was
projected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current
trends, (2) managed growth, and (3) ecologically sustainable growth. The
current trends scenario allowed areas on the urban fringe that are currently
rural or forested to be developed, which would have implications for water
quality in the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. The managed growth and
ecologically sustainable scenarios produced growth patterns that were more
constrained and which consumed less natural resource land. This application
of the SLEUTH model demonstrates an ability to address a range of regional planning issues, but spatial accuracy and scale sensiti ? IMAGES : Improving Agri-Environmental Policies : a Simulation Approach to the Role of the Cognitive Properties of Farmers and Institutions Jan 2004 Project FAIR3 CT96-2092 lc_abm 28/02/022 http://wwwlisc.clermont.cemagref.fr/ImagesProject/ D?
Fleming, Mark 2004D Techniques for Estimating Spatially Dependent Discrete Choice Models Advances in Spatial Econometrics# Luc Anselin
Raymond J. G. M. Florax New York Springer D?
Fleming, Mark 2002w An Alternative to the Monocentric Model for Evaluating Growth Controls: A Spatially Correlated Discrete Choice ApproachM Regional Science Association International 49th Annual North American Meeting San Juan, Puerto Rico November 14 - 17, 2002 u? " Lambin, E. F.
Geist, H.
Lepers, E. 2003> Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions 205-241( Annual Review of Environmental Resources 287 land use/cover transformation
tropical regions
lc_intro e in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region of Mexico: scenarios of population and institutional change 230-253) Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems 30 3 24715 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2005.01.009 ID: 4112 ? . Tang, Z.
B. A. Engel
B.C. Pijanowski
K. J. Lim 2005M Forecasting Land Use Change and Its Environmental Impact at a Watershed Scale 35-45# Journal of Environmental Management 76 9 tion modelling of land use/land cover change scenarios in northeastern Thailand: a cellular automata approach 5 - 28 Journal of Land Use Science 1 1@ The cultivation of upland field crops, primarily cassava and sugar cane, in Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand, beginning in the mid- to late 1960s, has helped transform a once forest-dominated landscape to one dominated by agriculture. Today, paddy rice is cultivated throughout the lowlands, field crops and a fragmented forest matrix comprise the uplands, and fruit trees, rubber plantations, and vegetable gardens are among the crops dispersed around nuclear villages. Distributed along a topographic terrace system, upland and lowland crops are cultivated relative to environmental and economic opportunities and geographic access, although crops grown in marginal settings may not be sustainable. Relying upon a remote sensing image time-series, a longitudinal social survey, and GIS coverages, a cellular automata (CA) model is described that is used to characterize land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns through specified initial conditions, neighbourhood associations, and transition or growth rules. Results of four scenarios or experiments are described that perturb the base LULC change model of cassava, forest, and rice by imposing production quotas in the cultivation of cassava. Derived for the period 1972–2001, CA model results for the scenarios are compared to a time-series of Landsat satellite classifications of LULC using images of simulation runs and plots that describe trends in the compositio F? / Caruso Geoffrey
Rounsevell Mark
Cojocaru George Forthcomingl Exploring a spatio-dynamic neighbourhood-based model of residential behaviour in the Brussels periurban area7 International Journal of Geographic Information Systems( This article proposes a methodology for the construction and the calibration of a micro-economic urban land use model within an extended Cellular Automata (CA) framework. The methodology is applied to processes of residential spread in a part of the commuting periphery of Brussels. The model hypothesises that households effect on urban development, through their valuation of neighbourhood externalities. A coarse sensitivity analysis is undertaken in order to explore the relationship between household neighbourhood preferences and emerging spatial morphologies. These macro-structures are measured with different indices in order to parameterise the model. The methodology shows the usefulness of integrating a behavioural economic model within a CA framework for understanding land use change dynamics. $D? Irwin, Elena G.
Bockstael, Nancy 2006+ The Spatial Pattern of Land Use in the U.S. A Companion to Urban Economics Richard Arnott
Daniel McMillen? ' Engelen, G.
White, R.
de Nijs, A. C. M. 2002 Environment Explorer: a Spatial Policy Support Framework for the Integrated Assessment of Socio-Economic and Environmental Policies in the Netherlands 109-114 Integrated Assessment and Decision Support, Proceedings of the First Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society 1$ Andrea E. Rizzoli
Anthony J. Jakeman iEMSs
lc_integrated RequiredcD? " White, R.
B. Straatman
Engelen, G. 2004t Planning Scenario Visualization and Assessment: A Cellular Automata Based Integrated Spatial Decision Support System# Spatially Integrated Social Science! Goodchild, Michael F.
Janelle, D.
New York, USA Oxford University Press
lc_integrated, http://www.csiss.org/best-practices/siss/21/ ? Walker, R.T 20037 Evaluating the performance of spatially explicti models 1271-1278. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 69 11 November, http://www.geo.msu.edu/walker/evaluating.pdf <? Batty, M. 2005+ Urban Growth Using Cellular Automata Models 151-172" GIS, Spatial Analysis and Modeling3 David J. Maguire
Michael F. Goodchild
MichaD? Parker, Dawn C. Forthcomingk Integration of Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Models of Land Use: Challenges and Prospects" GIS, Spatial Analysis and Modeling3 David J. Maguire
Michael F. Goodchild
Michael Batty Redlands, CA
ESRI Press ? Lynch, Lorie
Lovell, Sabrina 2003e Combining Spatial and Survey Data to Explain Participation in Agricultural Land Preservation Programs 259-276 Land Economics 79 2
? 1 Geoghegan, Jacqueline
Lynch, Lorie
Bucholz, Shawn 2002 Capitalization of Open Spaces into Housing Values and the Residential Property Tax Revenue Impacts of Agricultural Easement Programs 33-45) Agricultural and Resource Economic Review 32 1 ? . Clarke, K.C.
Charles Dietzel
Noah C. Goldstein Under Reviewf A Decade of SLEUTHing: Lessons Learned from Applications of a Cellular Automaton Land Use Change Model? & A. P. Moxey
B. White
J. R. O'Callaghan 1995 The economic component of NELUP 21-330 Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 38 1 lc_optb The economic component of NELUP occupies a key position within the decision support system, modelling the response of agricultural land use to changing market and policy conditions. Linear programming was adopted as an appropriate modelling technique, satisfying constraints imposed by the objectives and structure of NELUP. The model was constructed using information from numerous datasets and has been validated against agricultural census data for the period 1980 to 1988. Forecasting runs have included investigation of the impact of the MacSharry reforms of the CAP on agriculture in the Tyne catchment.j http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&eissn=1360-0559&volume=38&issue=1&spage=21@ Required. This is in a special issue devoted to the NELUP model {? J. R. O'Callaghan 1995 NELUP: An Introduction 5-190 Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 38 1
lc_integrated5 The NERC-ESRC Land Use Programme (NELUP) uses a general systems framework for organizing the large amounts of information that are relevant to decision making in land use. The first level is that of empirical information which contains the descriptive data from which more sophisticated levels may be constructed, ranging from physically based models, through biosystems to the individual and political levels. An holistic and structured way is proposed for organizing information at the different levels and making it easily accessible to users in a decision support system. The level of the open systems of living organisms and ecosystems is where socio-economic demands impact on the environment and where ideas of sustainability and environmental carrying capacity have operational meaning for planners and managers.i http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&eissn=1360-0559&volume=38&issue=1&spage=5@ Required. This is in a special issue devoted to the NELUP model cd? J D Stephen J. Walsh
Barbara Entwisle
Ronald R. Rindfuss
Philip H. Page 2006{ Spatial simula ? D Parker, Dawn C.
Manson, S. M.
Janssen, M. A.
Hoffmann, M
Deadman, P. 2003R Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: A review 314–3371 Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93 2 lc_abm ? Parker, Dawn C.
Meretsky, V. 2004e Measuring pattern outcomes in an agent-based model of edge-effect externalities using spatial metrics 233-250' Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 101 2-3 lc_abm ? Lewis, D.
Plantinga, A. J. 2007_ Policies for Habitat Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations 109-127 Land Economics 83 2 ABSTRACT. Habitat fragmentation is widely
considered a primary threat to biodiversity. In this
paper, we analyze incentive-based policies designed
to reduce forest fragmentation in the coastal plain
region of South Carolina. Our approach integrates
an econometric model of land use with simulations
that predict the spatial pattern of land-use change.
We analyze how subsidies for afforestation affect
distributions defined over fragmentation metrics and
derive the marginal costs of altering landscape
patterns. We find the costs of reducing fragmentation
vary greatly with initial landscape conditions
and that a simple uniform subsidy performs well
relative to a more complicated spatially targeted
policy. (JEL R14, R52) "D? Gotts, N.M.
Parker, Dawn C. 2004M Size Distributions of Land Holdings in an Agent-based Model of Rural Land UseQ Agent 2004 Conference on: Social Dynamics: Interaction, Reflexivity and Emergence Chicago, IL Argonne National Laboratories Oct. 7-9 gotts_parker_pl2 ? Nelson, G.
Geoghegan, Jacqueline 2002Q Introduction to the special issue on spatial analysis for agricultural economists 197-200 Agricultural Economics 27 3 lc_stats. The goal of this special issue is to introduce agricultural economists to new analytical approaches involving spatial data. This paper provides a brief history of the special issue and an introduction to von Thünen’s model of the determinants of land use and rent that underlies all spatial analysis nelson02 F? Parker, Dawn C.
Munroe, Darla K. Forthcomingv The geography of market failure: Edge-effect externalities and the location and production patterns of organic farming Ecological Economics 9 at="0" /> Manson,S. M. 2006n Land use? J . Kathrin Happe
Konrad Kellermann
Alfons Balmann 2006 Agent-based Analysis of Agricultural Policies: an Illustration of the Agricultural Policy Simulator AgriPoliS, its Adaptation and Behavior 49 Ecology and Society 11 1 This paper combines agent-based modeling of structural change with agricultural policy analysis. Using the agent-based model AgriPoliS, we investigate the impact of a regime switch in agricultural policy on structural change under various framework conditions. Instead of first doing a sensitivity analysis to analyze the properties of our model and then examining the introduced policy in an isolated manner, we use a meta-modeling approach in combination with the statistical technique of Design of Experiments to systematically analyze the relationship between policy change and model assumptions regarding key determinants of structural change such as interest rates, managerial abilities, and technical change. As a result, we observe that the effects of policies are quite sensitive to the mentioned properties. We conclude that an isolated analysis of a policy regime switch would be of only minor value for policy advice given the ability of simulation models to examine various potential futures.1 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art49n? $ Pepijn Schreinemachers
Thomas Berger 2006Z Land use decisions in developing countries and their representation in multi-agent systems 29-44 Journal of Land Use Science 1 1@ Recent research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) has put more emphasis on the importance of understanding the decision-making of human actors, especially in developing countries. The quest is now for a new generation of LUCC models with a decision-making component. This paper deals with the question of how to realistically represent decision-making in land use models. Two main agent decision architectures are compared. Heuristic agents take sequential decisions following a pre-defined decision tree, while optimizing agents take simultaneous decisions by solving a mathematical programming model. Optimizing behaviour is often discarded as being unrealistic. Yet the paper shows that optimizing agents do have important advantages for empirical land use modelling and that multi-agent systems (MAS) offer an ideal framework for using the strengths of both agent decision architectures. The use of optimization models is advanced with a novel three-stage decision model of investment, production, and consumption to represent uncertainty in models of land use decision-making.d http://journalsonline.tandf.co.uk/openurl.asp?genre=article&issn=1747-423X&volume=1&issue=1&spage=29 f? . Maureen Cropper
Jyotsna Puri
Charles Griffiths 2001a Predicting the Location of Deforestation: The Role of
Roads and Protected Areas in North Thailand 172- 186 Land Economics 77 2 ABSTRACT. Using plot level data, we estimate
a bivariate probit model to explain land clearing
and the siting of protected areas in North Thailand
in 1986. The model suggests that protected
areas (national parks and wildlife sanctuaries together)
did not reduce the likelihood of forest
clearing; however, wildlife sanctuaries may have
reduced the probability of deforestation. Road
building, by reducing impedance-weighted distance
to market, has promoted clearing, especially
near the forest fringe. We simulate the impact
of further road building to show where road
building is likely to have greatest impact and
where it is likely to threaten protected areas.
n and spatial organisation of cassava, forest, and rice for each scenario. Results are interpreted within a population-environment context in which people, place, and environment are integrated in complex ways. The demise of forest at the expense of expanded lowland paddy rice and upland field crops is a central story of the region. Quotas on the production of cassava alter the trajectories of forest change and result in more consolidated forest stands over the period of the simulations. Cassava consolidation and in-filling in the extensive uplands of the southwest portion of Nang Rong district is a persistent outcome of the simulations for the various scenarios tested.d http://journalsonline.tandf.co.uk/openurl.asp?genre=article&eissn=1747-4248&volume=1&issue=1&spage=5 vity are among the factors
that must be further considered for practical application.p http://scholar.google.com/url?sa=U&q=httpF?
Torrens, P.M. 2006 Simulating Sprawl1 Annals of the Association of American Geographers 96 2% Suburban sprawl, a relatively recent phenomenon, is among the most important urban policy issues facing contemporary cities. To date, a well-accepted rationale has not been settled on for explaining and managing the causes of sprawl. Our contention is that consideration of geography is essential—that geographical explanations offer much potential in informing the debate about sprawl. Similarly, spatial simulation could support sprawl-related research, offering what-if experimentation environments for exploring issues relating to the phenomenon. Sprawling cities may be considered as complex adaptive systems, and this warrants use of methodology that can accommodate the space-time dynamics of many interacting entities. Automata tools are well-suited to representation of such systems, but could be better formulated to capture the uniquely geographical traits of phenomena such as sprawl. By means of illustrating this point, the development of a model for simulating the geographic dynamics of suburban sprawl is discussed. The model is formulated using geographic automata and is used to develop three sprawl simulations. The implications of those applications are discussed in the context of exploring geographic explanations of sprawl formation and the potential for managing sprawl by geographic means.I http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8306.2006.00477.x &? Volker Grimm
Eloy Revilla
Uta Berger
Florian Jeltsch
Wolf M. Mooij
Steven F. Railsback
Hans-Hermann Thulke
Jacob Weiner
Thorsten Wiegand
Donald L. DeAngelis 2005N Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology 987-991 Science 310 11 Nov. w ' D? Verburg, P.
Kasper Kok
P Robert Gilmore Pontius
A. Veldkamp
Angelsen, A.
Bas Eickhout
Tom Kram
Stephen J. Walsh
Parker, D. C.
Keith Clarke
Brown, D.
Koen P. Overmars
François Bousquet 2006( Modelling land-use and land-cover change? Land-use and Land-cover Change: Local Processes, Global Impacts E. Lambin
H. Geist New York Springer Berlin HeidelbergF?
Torrens, P.M. Forthcoming (2006)3 A Geographic Automata Model of Residential Mobility Environment and Planning B This paper describes a model of residential mobility, built to simulate individual
households, their perception and reaction to varying conditions across different scales of
interaction, and their movements to occupy housing in a physical, social, and economic
environment. The methodology underpinning the model is based on an automata core,
leveraging the advantages it offers in terms of representing individual entities and their
rule-based interactions. This methodology is extended, however, to incorporate
geography-specific functionality, with advantages for modeling human systems. The
applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through the development of a rich
model of residential mobility, in which individual households interact with other
households and real estate infrastructure, dynamically in space and time, to form
synthetic communities and artificial property submarkets. Use of the model for what-if
experimentation is demonstrated with synthetic economic and socio-demographic
simulation scenarios. R://www.whrc.org/resources/published_literature/pdf/JantzEnvPlanB.03.pdf Required ? H. Visser
T. de Nijs 2006 The Map Comparison Kit 346-358$ Environmental Modelling and Software 21 32 Comparing maps is an important issue in environmental research. There are many reasons to compare maps: (i) to detect
temporal/spatial changes or hot-spots, (ii) to compare different models, methodologies or scenarios, (iii) to calibrate, validate landuse
models, (iv) to analyse model uncertainty and sensitivity, and (v) to assess map accuracy. This paper addresses the quantification
of map similarities and dissimilarities using the Map Comparison Kit (MCK) software. Software and documentation are publicly
available on the RIKS website free of charge (http://www.riks.nl/MCK/). The main focus is on ‘categorical’ or ‘nominal’ maps.
Four different nominal map-comparison techniques are integrated in the software. Maps on ordinal, ratio and interval scale can be
dealt with as well. The software is unique in having two map comparison techniques based on fuzzy-set calculation rules. The
rationale is that fuzzy-set map comparison is very close to human judgement. Both fuzziness in location and fuzziness in category
definitions are dealt with in the software.=? Q Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho
Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira
Cássio Lopes Pennachin 2002 Dinamica—a stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier 217-235 Ecological modelling 154 3% , a spatially explicit simulation model of landscape dynamics has been developed. Image is a cellular automata model that presents multi-scale vicinity-based transitional functions, incorporation of spatial feedback approach to a stochastic multi-step simulation engine, and the application of logistic regression to calculate the spatial dynamic transition probabilities. This model was initially conceived for the simulation of Amazonian landscape dynamics, particularly the landscapes evolved in areas occupied by small farms. For testing its performance, the model was used to simulate spatial patterns of land-use and land-cover changes produced by the Amazonian colonists in clearing the forest, cultivating the land, and eventually abandoning it for vegetation succession. The study area is located in an Amazonian colonization frontier in the north of Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The model was run for two sub-areas of colonization projects, using an 8-year time span, from 1986 to 1994. The simulated maps were compared with land-use and land-cover maps, obtained from digital classification of remote sensing images, using the multiple resolution fitting procedure and a set of landscape structure measures, including fractal dimension, contagion index, and the number of patches for each type of land-use and land-cover class. The results from the validation methods for the two areas showed a good performance of the model, indicating that it can be used for replicating the spatial patterns created by landscape dynamics in Amazonian colonization regions occupied by small farms. Possible applications of Image include the evaluation of landscape fragmentation produced by different architectures of colonization projects and the prediction of a region's spatial pattern evolution according to various dynamic phases. Blackwell ? Castella, J.C.
Verburg, P. 2007l Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land use change in a mountain area of Vietnam 410-420 Ecological Modelling 202 3-41 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.011 $ el Batty Redlands, CA
ESRI Press? Irwin, Elena
Bockstael, Nancy 2007b The evolution of urban sprawl: Evidence of spatial heterogeneity and increasing land fragmentation 20672-20677/ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 52 We investigate the dynamics and spatial distribution of land use fragmentation in a rapidly urbanizing region of the United States to test key propositions regarding the evolution of sprawl. Using selected pattern metrics and data from 1973 and 2000 for the state of Maryland, we find significant increases in developed and undeveloped land fragmentation but substantial spatial heterogeneity as well. Estimated fragmentation gradients that describe mean fragmentation as a function of distance from urban centers confirm the hypotheses that fragmentation rises and falls with distance and that the point of maximum fragmentation shifted outward over time. However, rather than outward increases in sprawl balanced by development infill, we find substantial and significant increases in mean fragmentation values along the entire urban–rural gradient. These findings are in contrast to the results of Burchfield et al. [Burchfield M, Overman HG, Puga D, Turner MA (2006) Q J Econ 121:587–633], who conclude that the extent of sprawl remained roughly unchanged in the Unites States between 1976 and 1992. As demonstrated here, both the data and pattern measure used in their study are systematically biased against recording low-density residential development, the very land use that we find is most strongly associated with fragmentation. Other results demonstrate the association between exurban growth and increasing fragmentation and the systematic variation of fragmentation with nonurban factors. In particular, proximity to the Chesapeake Bay is negatively associated with fragmentation, suggesting that an attraction effect associated with this natural amenity has concentrated development. , D?
e Roberto Sánchez-Rodríguez
Karen C. Seto
David Simon
William D. Solecki,
Frauke Kraas
Gregor Laumann 2005: SCIENCE PLAN: URBANIZATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IHDP Report Series
G. Laumann BonnG International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change ? Benenson, I.
Torrens, P. 20049 Geosimulation: Automata-Based Modeling of Urban Phenomena London John Wiley & Sons ? Benenson, I.
Torrens, P. 2004# Introduction to urban geosimulation 1-189 Geosimulation: Automata-Based Modeling of Urban Phenomena London John Wiley & Sons ? Benenson, I.
Torrens, P. 2004. Modeling urban land use with cellular automata 91-1509 Geosimulation: Automata-Based Modeling of Urban Phenomena London John Wiley & Sons ? Benenson, I.
Torrens, P. 20040 Modleing Urban Dynamics with Multi-agent Systems 153-2489 Geosimulation: Automata-Based Modeling of Urban Phenomena London John Wiley & SonsaD? Delden (van), H.
G. Engelen 2006d Combining participatory approaches and modelling: lessons from two practical cases of policy supportN iEMSs Third Biennial Meeting: "Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software"& Voinov, A.
Jakeman, A.J.
Rizzoli, A.E. Burlington, VT: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society ? V Paul Waddell
Alan Borning
Michael Noth
Nathan Freier
Michael Becke
Gudmundur Ulfarsson 2003` Microsimulation of Urban Development and Location Choices: Design and Implementation of UrbanSim 43-67 Networks and Spatial Economics 3 1 ?
Waddell, Paul 2002\ UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation and Environmental Planning 297-314, Journal of the American Planning Association 68 3 + `D? " Waddell, Paul
Liming Wang
X uan Liu Forthcoming (2008)E UrbanSim:An Evolving Planning Support System for Evolving Communities Planning Support Systems Brail, R.
Cambridge, MA Lincoln Land Institute$ ƿ? ' W. Loonen
P. Heuberger
M. Kuijpers-Lind 20074 SPATIAL OPTIMISATION IN LAND-USE ALLOCATION PROBLEMS 147-1653 Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and application 907 ERIC KOOMEN
JOHN STILLWEL
ALDRIK BAKEM
HENK J. SCHOLTEN Amsterdam Springer The Geojournal Library? ! Mueller, Julie M.
Loomis, John B. 2008 Spatial Dependence in Hedonic Property Models: Do Differnt Corrections For Spatial Dependence Result in Economically Significant Differences in Estimated Implicit Prices? 212-231/ Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 33 29 Forest fires
Hedonic property models
Spatial econometrics While data used in hedonic property models are inherently spatial in nature, to date the major of past regression analyses have used OLS models that overlook possible spatial dependence in the data when estimating implicit priced for environmental hazards. This paper explicitly addresses spatial dependence in a hedonic property model. We use robust testing procedures to determine the existence and type of spatial dependence in our OLS model. After identifying the nature of the spatial dependence, OLS estimates of the implicit price of wildfire risk are compared to implicit priced obtained using a spatially corrected estimates of implicit prices are often found to be nearly the same as those obtained using OLS. Our results indicate that the inefficiency of OLS in the presence of spatially correlated errors may not always be economically significant, suggesting nonspatial hedonic property models may provide results useful for policy analysis, and spatial and nonapatial hedonic property models might be pooled in meta-analysis. http://purl.umn.edu/42459 ? E Arno Maatman
Caspar Schweigman
Arjan Ruijs
van Der Vlerk, Maarten H. 2002c Modeling Farmers' Response to Uncertain Rainfall in Burkina Faso: A Stochastic Programming Approach 399-414 Operations Research 50 3 Decision analysis: sequential: farmers' response to uncertain rain fall; Programming, Stochastic: application of recourse model
Farmers on the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso in West Africa cultivate under precarious conditions. Rainfall variability is extremely high in this area and accounts for much of the uncertainty surrounding the farmers' decision-making process. Strategies to cope with these risks are typically dynamic. Sequential decision making is one of the most important ways to cope with risk due to uncertain rainfall. In this paper, a stochastic programming model is presented to describe farmers' sequential decisions in reaction to rainfall. The model describes farmers' strategies of production, consumption, selling, purchasing, and storage from the start of the growing season until one year after the harvest period. This dynamic model better describes farmers' strategies than do static models that are usually applied. This study draws important policy conclusions regarding reorientation of research programs and illustrates how operations research techniques can be usefully applied to study grass root problems in developing countries. 10.1287/opre.50.3.399.7749D? Peter B.R. Hazell
Roger Norton 1986= MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN AGRICULTURE Biological Resource Management
Wayne M. Getz New York Macmillan Publishing Company0 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/otherpubs/mathprog.htm 3 ? J Peter B.R. Hazell
Roger Norton 1986 Chapter 2: The Farm Model 9-32 New York Macmillan Publishing Company0 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/otherpubs/mathprog.htm Biological Resource Management
Wayne M. Getz Z? Bekele Shiferaw
Stein T. Holden 2000a Policy instruments for sustainable land management: the case of highland smallholders in Ethiopia 217 - 330 Agricultrual Economics 22 3Q Household models
Land degradation
Policy instruments
Peasant agriculture
Ethiopia Degradation of land continues to pose a threat to future food production potential in many developing economies. Various approaches, mainly based on command-and-control policies, have been tried (with limited success) in the past to encourage adoption of erosion-control practices by farm households. High transactions costs and negative distributional impacts on the welfare of the poor limit the usefulness of standards and taxes for soil and water conservation. One innovative approach is the use of interlinked contracts which create positive incentives for land conservation. This study analyses the social efficiency of such policies for erosion-control in the Ethiopian highlands using a non-separable farm household model. Incentive contracts linked with conservation seem to be promising approaches for sustainable resource use in poor rural economies. This may suggest that conservation programs should give greater consideration to better fine-tuning and mix of policies that help achieve both economic and environmental objectives.' DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2000.tb00071.x