Performance Measures for GMU's Men's Basketball Team

2001-2002 season

Value (Sutton System) per 40 Minutes

Each player's value (really, the partial value which can be obtained from box score entries) is determined using the Sutton System (explanation given below), and then the value per 40 minutes is obtained by dividing the total value by the number of minutes played (to obtain value per minute), and then multiplying that number by 40.

Player Value/40min
Young 16.2
Larranaga 14.9
Anderson 14.0
Butler 11.7
Nixon 10.2
Wyatt 9.1
Heinen 8.6
Tynes 5.7
Cooper 5.3
Franklin -10.2

Points per FGA

The table below gives the average number of points scored per field goal attempt for each player (i.e., the sum of 2 times the number of 2 point field goals and 3 times the number of 3 point field goals, divided by the total number of field goal attempts). Also shown is the number of field goal attempts per 40 minutes for each player.

Player Points/FGA FGA/40min
Wyatt 1.26 7.8
Anderson 0.99 14.2
Larranaga 0.99 9.7
Young 0.98 13.4
Butler 0.96 13.6
Cooper 0.95 4.0
Heinen 0.91 8.1
Nixon 0.90 13.0
Tynes 0.81 9.1
Franklin 0.52 6.9

One would like to see the players with the highest points per attempt making the most attempts. Among the players who played a lot of minutes, the data suggests that Larranaga did not take enough shots, while Nixon took too many. (It can be noted that Wyatt's performance is based on an appreciably smaller number of attempts than are the performances of the six players who played the most.)

Points per FGA (adjusted for tendency to draw fouls)

On some teams, players who are good scoring threats tend to be fouled a lot in the act of shooting. When this happens, the fouled player gets to go to the free throw line and, if he is a decent free throw shooter, have a greater chance to make 2 points than if he took his field goal attempt in the course of regular play. I believe that this type of scoring should be taken into account when measuring each player's potential to score points.

Although not all foul shots occur two at a time due to a player being fouled in the act of going for a 2 point shot, in order to arrive at a relatively simple measure that reflects players' ability to draw fouls in the act of shooting, and to capitalize on their drawn fouls by hitting their free throws, I'm going to take the measure considered above (points per FG attempt), and augment the numerator by adding on points from free throws, and augment the denominator and adding on the number of free throw attempts, divided by 2. I'll also count each pair of free throw attempts as a field goal attempt for the purpose of determining each player's number of scoring attempts per 40 minutes. It is hoped that this measure will be a good one for determining if the right players are attempting to score when GMU is on offense.

Player Adj. Points / att attempts / 40 min
Wyatt 1.14 9.3
Larranaga 1.10 12.9
Young 1.08 17.2
Butler 1.04 15.6
Anderson 1.03 15.4
Cooper 1.02 4.4
Heinen 0.97 9.9
Nixon 0.97 14.4
Tynes 0.83 10.1
Franklin 0.58 8.4

Rebounds per 40 Minutes

The values in the table below were obtained by dividing each player's total number of rebounds by his total number of minutes played, to get rebounds per minute, and then multiplying this by 40.

Player RB/40min
Young 10.7
Tynes 7.9
Larranaga 7.7
Nixon 6.5
Wyatt 6.4
Heinen 5.3
Anderson 5.2
Cooper 4.9
Butler 3.9
Franklin 2.6

Here is a link to similar measures based on the 2002-2003 season.

partial explanation of the Sutton value system

Applying the Sutton value system results in a partial measure of a player's overall value to the team based on data obtained from box scores, and so not including defensive contributions other than steals and rebounds. To obtain each player's overall value for his time on the court during the game, one starts with a value of 0, and then adds 2 points for each 2 point field goal (FG), 1 point for each rebound (RB), subtracts a point for each missed field goal (MFG), subtracts 2 points for each turnover (TO), and so on, using the point values indicated in the table below.

value
three point field goal (TR) 4
two point field goal (FG) 2
missed field goal (MFG) -1
rebound (RB) 1
turnover (TO) -2
steal (S) 2
free throw (FT) 1
missed free throw (MFT) -0.5
foul (F) -1
assist (A) 1
block (BLK) 0.5

Although at first it may seem very odd to give a value of 4 to a 3 point field goal, while only giving a value of 2 to a 2 point field goal, be assured that there is a reason for this. A short explanation can be found here, and for a fuller explanation, one should go here.