This was written in September 1997. It
will be updated soon.
The most important event in the last year in Russian politics was President Boris YeltsinŐ return to physical and political health. YeltsinŐs health had seemed fine during his admittedly stage-managed first ballot presidential election campaign. During the two weeks between the first and second ballot, however, he made very few public appearances. Afterward, it quickly became clear just how seriously ill he was. On 5 November, he underwent a seven-hour cardiac bypass operation. Just before going under the anesthetic, he signed a decree transferring all presidential powers to Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, and it would be nearly two months before he was able to exercise all those powers again.
Despite the occasional cold or bout of flu (remember he was born in February 1931), Yeltsin has seemed remarkably spry and thin since the beginning of the year. Despite the occasional political cold or bout of flu, RussiaŐs political and economic health seemed to be improving as well.
There were many signs of that improvement:
First was the resolution--at least for now--of the Chechen situation. In December, the Russian Federation and the Chechen rebels announced a new cease fire and peace plan. This one called for the withdrawal of Russian troops, the election of a new Chechen government including a president, and the deferral of further decisions on the future of Chechnya for five years. So far, it has held. Tensions do remain high, but all Russian troops are gone, and the Chechens helped out by electing Aslan Mahkhadov (59.3% of the vote), not the most nationalist of the presidential candidates, during the January election. On 12 May, Russia and Chechnya signed a formal peace treaty which will open the door to closer economic relations and perhaps a deal on access to oil pipelines which run the region.
There have also been signs of improvement in the economy. Things are by no means good, but MayŐs figures put inflation at only 14.6%, a tiny fraction of what it had been a year earlier. GDP and industrial production were both up slightly arresting years of often precipitous declines. Even the ruble had come close to stabilizing on the foreign exchange markets. Economic reformers have regained some of their political influence, most notably with the selection of Anatoly Chubais and Boris Nemtsov as First Deputy Prime Ministers largely in charge of economic policy. Chubais (41) has reemerged in the limelight following a nine-month stint as YeltsinŐs chief of staff. Nemtsov (37) built a reputation as one of the countryŐs most successful reformers as provincial governor of Nizhny-Novgorod 250 miles east of Moscow. Their appointment heartened the ranks of the radical reformers, who had largely been out of power since the attempted coup in 1993.
There were also plenty of difficulties
Yeltsin and the opposition are still having a hard time working out a modus vivendi. The communists remain intransigent in their opposition to most of YeltsinŐs policies and even tried to have him impeached after his operation. Failed presidential candidate and former Security Chief in YeltsinŐs government (fired in October 1996) Aleksander Lebed created a new political party, the Russian PeopleŐs Republican Party which he claimed had 10,000 members, a figure few took seriously. Among other things, the continued row between Yeltsin and the opposition-dominated Duma means that Russia still has not definitively adopted either a flag or a national anthem or decided what to do about LeninŐs body which still remains on public display in its tomb in Red Square.
NATOŐs plans to expand eastward and admit a number of formerly communist countries as members put Yeltsin in a difficult position, especially since some of the countries discussed had once been republics in the USSR. In the end, Yeltsin realized he could not stop NATO and reached an agreement in which NATO tacitly agreed not to admit former Soviet republics. The Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between also established a Russian-NATO joint council that will meet twice a year to discuss security issues and a pledge (but no guarantee) that NATO will not deploy large numbers of troops or any nuclear weapons in the new member states.
Yeltsin did steal the show at the summit where the formal announcement was made by announcing that Russia would no longer point its nuclear warheads at any NATO country. Reaction inside Russia both to the summit in May and the later decision to offer membership to Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic was decidedly mixed. The Communist chair of the Duma Security Committee Viktor Ilyukhin, for instance, attacked it as "another example of the betrayal of Russia's interests." Shortly thereafter, Yeltsin fired both the defense minister and chief of staff.
The military itself continues to suffer a decline in number of troops and, especially, morale (many officers havenŐt been paid for months), and most observers doubt it could fight a war if it had to. There is a broad belief that Russia continues to be humiliated in international affairs up to and including its relationships with the Ňnear abroad,Ó the other former Soviet republics.
There are, of course, still serious economic problems. For the first half of the year, tax revenues fell far short of expectations creating a budget crisis that was still unresolved as this was written. More importantly, the economy as a whole still suffers from years of stagnation and decline which translates into poor living conditions for most people which stands in sharp contrast with the opulence of the million or so millionaires who have profited from the transition away from communist rule. On balance, younger people with marketable skills are doing well, but older people and others such as workers in dying industries, are having hard time indeed. The situation is eased somewhat by the fact that as much as 40% of transactions are paid for through barter rather than cash. Nonetheless, life is by no means easy for perhaps as much as two thirds of the population, many of whom long for the communist era when they at least had a degree of security and predictability to their lives.
Corruption, too, remains all but intractable. Yeltsin did sign a decree to "put an end to the situation in which civil service becomes a source of enrichment" by forcing cabinet members, parliamentary deputies, and other federal and regional officials to make financial disclosure statements. The decree, however, was filled with loopholes since family members do not have to declare their incomes and assets and officials who are covered have time to transfer their assets to relatives or foreign banks. Yeltsin did little to help the public image on this front when he named his 37 year-old daughter, Tatiana Dyachenko to be a presidential advisor.
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