This was written in September 1997. It will be updated soon.
That things would not go smoothly was clear following the election in May 1996 in which the BJP won the most seats in the Lok Sabha. The other main parties, however, banded together to block the BJPÕs forming a government and formed a loose coalition of their own under Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda. That government never seemed likely to last long since it required the support of the Congress Party which it had defeated in the election and which also chose not to join the government.
Late 1996 was not good for Congress. Not only did it have to reflect on its most stunning electoral defeat ever, outgoing Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao was indicted on corruption charges in September but held on as head of the parliamentary party until resigning in December. He was replaced by Sitaram Kesri who was far less willing to cooperate with the 13-party coalition government which still needed Congress support.
In late March, Kesri announced that Congress would withdraw that support in a bid to make himself prime minister. A vote of confidence was held on 11 April which the government lost 338 to 90 with over 100 abstentions. Kesri bid soon disintegrated and the politicians were faced with a tough choice: either reconstitute a government from the existing Lok Sabha or hold new elections. Given the even greater uncertainties of an election, they opted for the former since polls suggested that the BJP and its allies would come close to winning a parliamentary majority.
On April 18, an agreement was reached making 77 year-old Defense Minister I. K. Gujral prime minister of a coalition government with 14 of the 15 parties from the old one. A veteran socialist politician, Gujral used to support limits on imports and close ties with the Soviet Union. The first signs from his government, though, stressed continuity rather than change. True, Palaniappan Chidambaram, the primary architect of IndiaÕs economic reforms, did not stay on, but most of the other leading ministers did. The government and Congress (still outside the cabinet) set up a committee to discuss issues of mutual concern, and Gujral sent signals that he would not engage in a witch hunt against Congress officials. Nonetheless, most pundits thought the new government would be lucky to survive the year.
The coalition is as fractious as ever, and the Janata Dal (GujralÕs party) is in the midst of a divisive leadership contest. Its leader, Laloo Prasad Yadav, who was convicted of corruption in August for having embezzlement $138 million from Bihar state agricultural funds, was not reelected to his post in July, fomenting a split within one of the larger parties in the governing coalition. He then organized a splinter group. As of this writing, it was not clear how many of the 45 Janata Dal members of parliament would follow Yadav, but whatever happens the government can ill-afford any further fragmentation in its support.
To complicate matters even further, Italian born Sonia Gandhi (RajivÕs widow) formally joined the Congress party in May. According to party rules, a new member must spend two years doing grass roots work before becoming eligible to hold any office, and she has shown little interest in doing so. However, she and her family are held in such high regard in the divided party that she could almost certainly become party president overnight if she wanted. In a national poll conducted days after she announced she was joining the party, 27% of those quetioned said they thought she would make the best prime minister among all the top political leaders.
Despite the political instability, economic reform continues. Total growth for the last year was an encouraging 7.0% though industrial production was only up by 2.9%. Investor confidence was reinforced by a tax-cutting budget announced in February. And, even though Chidambaram did not survive the change in government, he has been largely successful in insulating economic reform from the shifting sands of political life. Restrictions on 542 categories of imports will be abolished between now and 2001, while it is becoming easier for foreign firms to own up to half of Indian corporations, including the national airline. There are still plenty of protected sectors, including the price of oil-based products, suggesting that this and subsequent governments will still have to make tough choices about a number of issues involving trade offs between the market and protecting the lot of the poor.
Dissatisfaction with the pace of economic reform continues. Thus, just as the government crisis reached its peak in April, a nationwide strike kept 2 million trucks off the road as owners objected to new taxes and license fees.
On another front, relations between India and Pakistan did improve somewhat during the year. New governments in both countries and a slightly calmer situation in Kashmir made talks between the countries easier; in IndiaÕs case, Gujral (who was born n what is now Pakistan) had already advocated more tolerant relations with all its neighbors when he was foreign minister. In June, a hotline was set up between the two prime ministersÕ offices. Still, no one expects a major breakthrough on bilateral relations or Kashmir especially given recent reports that India has moved some of its missiles into the Punjab, within striking distance of Pakistan.
|
Town Hall | |||
|
Suggestions? |
Department Home Page |