This was written in September 1997. It will be updated soon.
German politics did not have the drama of either Britain or France, but only because it hasn't had an election this year. Many of the same dynamics have been at work, however, most notably the direct and indirect effects of declining support for further European integration.
Central to the short-term evolution of German politics is Helmut Kohl, who is already the Federal Republic's longest serving Chancellor. Were he to win the Bundestag elections scheduled for fall 1998, he will presumably see in the new century and surpass Otto von Bismarck's record of 19 years in office.
In 1994 when his CDU-FDP coalition was last reelected, there would have been few doubts that he would win that unprecedented fifth term. The German economy was booming, relatively speaking. More importantly, Kohl was riding a wave of popularity as the politician most responsible for European integration which was, among other things, to lead to a single currency before the decade was out.
The last two years have sent shock waves through the governing coalition.
Unemployment, which has been higher than normal ever since unification, stood at 11.4% in May just below the average European rate and more than 1% higher than a year earlier. Germany was wracked, as well, by a series of strikes in mining and other traditional Òblue collarÓ industries where workers and owners alike are worried about cuts in state subsidies and social service programs.
It is now also clear that Germany will have a very hard time meeting one of the criteria for joining the single currency, a deficit of 3.0% of GNP or less. Until summer 1997, Germany had taken a hard line with other EU countries, arguing that no tinkering with the national books or other ÒfudgesÓ would be allowed to ÒhelpÓ them qualify.
The government proposed some dramatic economic reforms, including one that would cut tax rates both for individuals and corporations by as much as 16% for people in the highest bracket. The reform was defeated because of SPD control of the Bundesrat. On the other end of the political spectrum, the powerful Bundesbank has sharply criticized Finance Minister Theo Waigel's plan to revalue German gold reserves and other proposed accounting changes that would make Germany more likely to qualify.
There are tensions within the governing coalition. As often happens after it has been in government for a long time, support for the FDP has declined and it is currently running at or below 5% in most of the polls. Earlier in 1997, there were rumors that the FDP would pull out of the coalition before the October 1998 election, but now most observers assume that will not do so.
All is not well within Kohl's party either. At the moment, the most strident opposition to Kohl's European policy comes from the CSU, the Bavarian wing of the CDU, where State Prime Minister Edmund Stolber has criticized the government for engaging in such fudges itself and urged that the start of the EMU be postponed until it can be done in a way that makes the Euro as strong a currency as the Mark is today while moderates worry about the potentially disastrous electoral consequences of austerity policies.
Current polls show the somewhat revitalized Socialists (SPD) with a slight lead throughout the country, even in the East where the Christian Democrats have always done well since unification. However, there is considerable uncertainty within the SPD as to who should be designated its candidate for Chancellor. Right now, the odds are that it will be party leader, Oskar Lafontaine who lost to Kohl in 1990, but observers are not counting out the more moderate and charismatic Gerhard Schroder.
One should not rule Kohl out, of course, given his demonstrated ability as a campaigner. He also will benefit from the fact that the opposition has a history of self-destructing in campaigns against him and is itself divided. Any defeat of the CDU will have to require at least a coalition of the SPD with the Greens and perhaps the former communists and FDP as well. Many electoral analysts are convinced that no such coalition could last long and that Kohl and the CDU will be able to play on fears of such instability in clawing back its slight gap in today's polls.
As usual, Kohl's appetite and weight have made it into the news. Apparently, the Chancellor lost over 30 pounds at an Austrian health spa over the winter. Still, he is heavy enough that the Spanish government provided him with a larger, reinforced chair for the July NATO summit. While the German diplomats were a bit miffed, the Spaniards had already had difficulties with a corpulent head of state. It seems that the King of Tonga had eaten so much at a recent state banquet that the arms of his chair had to be cut off before he could get up.
In short, Germany is in a shakier position than it has been for years. The regime is in no danger of succumbing to a new wave of extremism. However, the vaunted German economy is facing its most serious difficulties since the OPEC-induced recession of the 1970s, difficulties which are having political ramifications as well
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